SoxSport

It looks to me as though the Mets got "stuck" with Bay, and the Sox truly weren't interested. He obviously fit better in Boston, with Fenway and the DH which he'll be more suited for in a couple of years. The latter is what takes some value off the Mets deal. They continue to sign over-30 players to long term contracts and don't get full value on the back end. It looks like Bay blew it--turning the 4/60 down originally with the Sox. But he got his money--lucky, considering the Mets were bidding against themselves in this price range. So now the speculation shifts to Holliday. Boras is holding the final card. He will look to the Red Sox. Then he will look to the Yankees. If he gets a no, he will finally deal with the Cardinals who are waiting hat in hand. The Cardinals are the obvious fit for Holliday, in view of his stats there last year.

Funny I was under the impression Pap was a Boras client, or client-to-be. Where did I read that? He is aiming for free agency, taking one year contracts. Maybe July is a bit early for trading him--depends on how he is doing and how Bard is progressing--I think the chances are they will deal him when the timing is right to some team that will pay big bucks to a closer. And they're aren't many such teams out there. Look at Valverde. Another factor is that Pap was not that dominating a pitcher last year, particularly in the playoffs. Unless he bounces back, mixes his pitches and throws the splitter more, he won't command a high premium in the FA market. And he will feel some heat from Bard as Bard progresses.

All this talk about who's better. You mean on paper? I think the Yankees are better. They better be. After all they spend much more. That's their goal. Who ultimately wins will depend on injuries. The Yankees' approach now is to maximize their spending advantage--not to try to compete at the farm system level. That means not only signing the top FAs, but trading for salary dumps other teams want to unload and will take less in return. When you get a player and give up less, you improve. That's what happened with Granderson and Vasquez. Not "steals", as the media reported, but simple salary dumps teams wanted to unload where the Yankees effectively "agreed" to add salary in return for giving up less. They added about $8 mil for Vasquez and about the same for Granderson, whose contract balloons after next year. The teams they traded with, the Braves and Tigers, of course, saved that much to do other things. Cashman made some very clever deals here--improving his team by taking on salary. Contrast that to Epstein, who is forever trying to deal for young, low salaried stars like AdGon or HRam. The only way you can get those types is to OVERPAY in talent, so the net effect is to weaken your team in the long run. Theo probably realizes this, which is why there is renewed interest in Bay. Bay could be the logical route to making a deal for AdGon involving Ellsbury which doesn't weaken the team--since they now have Cameron near term for CF and replacements longer term. I think Ellsbury's agent Boras is also a factor. I doubt the Red Sox will re-sign Ellsbury, since Boras will push him into the FA market--like he will Pap. Say goodbye to both. I think Pap will be traded, too, perhaps by July.

Changing leagues is always an issue for hitters and pitchers. The impact is unpredictable. Maybe because the main effect is how the pitching affects the hitter, and vice versa for a pitcher. Halladay, for example, should be better in the NL, and AdGon should be worse in the AL. I wonder if the park would make as much difference. AdGon will probably lose a few HRs to LF in Fenway with the high wall, so the net affect might be small. A bigger affect is the right field porch in Yankee stadium for a LHd pull hitter--no high wall there. That's why Granderson fits. I see that Ellsbury has been elevated to star status in some CF ratings. That could be enough to persuade Hoyer to swap AdGon for Ellsbury and a package. That assumes they work out some sort of deal with Bay. I don't see the Red Sox standing pat with the status quo. Not with their new pitching advantage negated by the Vasquez salary dump (which cost the Yankees an extra $8 mil--by the way--and saved the Braves the same). You can't stand pat with the Yankees.

The other thing about Ellsbury I forgot to mention is that his agent is Boras. That is an incentive for the Red Sox to want to deal him and for the Padres not to want him.

I think a signing of Bay by the Red Sox would be a signal a deal for AdGon for Ellsbury + is in place. I don't think the Yankees are interested in Bay--not to play LF. They may not even be interested in Holliday in LF, but their cozy relationship with Boras must make the Cardinals nervous. Besides, the Yankees' bias is towards LHd hitters (and pitchers) for obvious reasons. The short RF porch in Yankee Stadium has always been their biggest weapon. The Red Sox could get a leg up in the picture if they signed Bay to a backloaded contract and traded Ellsbury and Kelly/Anderson? (not Buchholz or Westmoreland or Kalish) for AdGon. It would leave them a lineup loaded with hitters but without much speed. Since they are not a smallball team anyways, pitching is a far more important factor and their defense would be better with Scutaro at SS and Cameron in CF. That assumes Youks can adjust back to 3B. Ellsbury does have holes in his game--notably a lack of walks--which makes him less than ideal as a leadoff hitter, but he has enough upside to be an attractive trading piece. He might hit .350 if he learns how to work a count and increase his walks.

Bay opens up a trade of Ellsbury for AdGon--maybe allowing them to keep Buchholz. They'll have to keep Buchholz if they want to keep that rabbit running ahead of them in their sights. Reminds you of those greyhound dog races. The dogs never quite catch the rabbit, which seems to run a little faster every time a dog gets closer. Does anybody really expect that rabbit won't add a leftfielder? Holliday is ripe to be plucked, though he might rightly prefer St Louis.

Indeed a salary dump. Either him or Lowe.

The Yankees have been praised in the media (aren't the Yankees really the media?)for pulling off two great "trades" so far this year--for Granderson and Vasquez--for lesser players. How did they do it? Well, Granderson and Vasquez were SALARY DUMPS. The Tigers and the Braves wanted to unload salary, and which team is in the best position to take on salary? The Yankees, of course. Contrast that to the Red Sox--who right now want to deal for young superstars (e.g., AdGon) on other teams who have low salaries.To save money. But that forces them to give up equal young talent, and really doesn't make the team stronger in the long run. What's happening here is the Yankees are leveraging their TV cable money advantage to the maximum, taking advantage of other teams' need to unload salary. That's good business for them--what they should be doing. They are back to the formula which won them Championships in the Reggie Jackson era. Is it bad for Baseball? Selig probably doesn't see it that way--the NY market is crucial for his TV revenues. And the Players Association just loves the way the Yankees push salaries up higher and higher. If the Yankees sign Holliday--which I think is likely--for 5/90 or thereabouts--playing out the season will be a formality. Fantasy Baseball is likely to be more competitive than the real thing.

The Yankees continue to be the favorite landing spot of salary dumps, as they have been since the advent of free agency in the late 70s. Remember when Bowie Kuhn outlawed those salary dumps of Charley Finley's A's to the Yankees and Red Sox? My, how times have changed. MLBTraderumors.com says the Yankees spent $226 mil in salaries last year plus $26 mil in luxury taxes. That's about $2.5 mil per win and $100 mil? more than the Red Sox. The last place a team wants to be is in a division with the Yankees. The question is where would the Yankees be with a salary cap? Probably closer to the middle of the pack. Although things being what they are in MLB, the cap would probably be $200 mil. LOL.

Regarding some of these RHd hitting options like Dye and Tejada, the main issue is $$. Expect things to happen when the prices go down in January and February.

Bay is a big boy, and he should have followed his instincts rather than rely on his agent, who also has an eye on the size of his commission. 4/60 was plenty for his situation in Boston. Now the Sox have gone in a different direction. Holliday should take that Cardinals offer while he has it--Boras may not have the Yankees to rely on this time.

WMP was not even a AAA outfielder defensively. His problem was the contract he signed with the Yankees as a youngster which prevented him from playing in the minor leagues. Epstein got hoodwinked by those monster HRs. And the illusion he had excess starting pitching.

Not necessarily. Hoyer knows the players in the lower minors, and should be able to put a package together without both Buchholz and Ellsbury.

Yeah--I agree. Except maybe if they have Beltre in their sights. I like Lowell, and I'd like to see him him get a shot at playing this year. He hit good last year. I'm not happy with Kotchman at 1B. Not the way he hit last year. That's an offense reduction. Let's see how Lowell looks in ST.

Yeah--Epstein has done some incredibly bad things--but he has also done some incredibly brilliant things. One of those brilliant things was sitting on the sidelines while the Sox traded Hanley R for Beckett and Lowell--which got them the 07 Championship. Hanley at the time wasn't even a AAA player, and there was no inkling he'd become the hitter he became with the Marlins. One of those rare players who exceeds his minor league performance in the majors. And yet, it worked out incredibly well for the Sox, even though they are still looking for a SS since Cabrera. Speaking of Lowell, I'm all for sticking with the status quo and seeing how he looks in ST. The thumb looks like a minor issue, and it looks like he will still be tradeable. So that option is open. I doubt it affects their thinking on Beltre or AdGon. What's going for them is the shrinking market for Beltre, Bay and Holliday. Funny, you take the Yankees out of the picture, and the big tickets get smaller.

Well, they did try to trade him. And now he's untradable until he gets his thumb fixed. The question is what should they do until he gets his thumb fixed. Beltre won't last to ST. AdGon probably will, but he might not be available. They can do nothing until ST, and see where Lowell fits. They have Kotchman as an option. They also can have Bay, apparently, which would free up Ellsbury in a trade for AdGon. That would get Boras completely, if so desired, out of their hair. The wheel of fortune is spinning....

And that's the truth. Looks like the classical tail wagging the dog, with the dog getting strangled by his own tail. Bay let his agent screw it up. So what if the Sox reconsider Bay? That might free up Ellsbury in an AdGon deal. I doubt they want to spend another $15 mil, but you never know. Depends on what Beltre costs, what they do with Lowell, etc. Lots of scenarios here.

Is this the AdGon thread? You could have fooled me. LOL.

I can envision a couple of scenarios here. One is Lowell moves to 1B and DHs part-time, Youks moving to 3B. That's if Lowell's thumb fully heals by ST so he can hit and gets some time at 1B before the season. I don't agree with Tito that Lowell can't play 1B. 3rd baseman can usually make the switch--look at Youks and Cabrera. After all, they are infielders, and 1B is easier. Asking an outfielder to play 1B is a different proposition--more difficult. I've moved around the infield myself in my younger days, so I have a feel for this sort of thing. The other scenario has the Red Sox releasing or dealing Lowell by the end of ST, depending on whether his thumb has healed and he is hitting. If he isn't , I think they'll release him or put him on the DL. Mike is a competitor and a pro, and I think he'll do whatever is needed to finish out his contract.

I'm reading a bunch of posts trying to put the Red Sox in the same spending class as the Yankees.That's impossible, since most revenue in sports these days comes from TV and marketing. And NY is by far the biggest market. The Red Sox cannot compete with the Yankees dollar for dollar. Period. The only team in baseball that can come close to the Yankees in spending is the other NY team, the Mets, now that they also have their own cable network. But their owner, Wilpon, is in financial hot water due to the Madoff scandal, and they have backed off some in their spending.