SoxSport

My prediction: Ellsbury-Pedroia-VMart-Youk-Drew-Cameron-Ortiz-Beltre-Scutaro More or less like last year. Ortiz should bat 6th again. He hits best there at this point. Tito likes to alternate Lhd and Rhd hitters. You want your best on-base guys batting highest in the lineup.

The Red Sox feed the Herald? Well, Silverman got the Beltre story 100% wrong.

It's tough to make any judgement about Lowell right now. The thumb obscures the hitting picture, and it's hard to say if the hip will improve enough this year for him to play 3B or even 1B. He probably has some value as a RHd DH--even in Boston. I don't think anything will happen until they see him in ST.

Wisdom here. Preventing runs is the same as scoring them. Defense is underrated because most of the media stats are offensive. Even the agents have a tendency to overvalue fantasy stats, though Boras may change that somewhat with Beltre.

Beltre looks like a GREAT defensive 3rd baseman-- maybe the best I've seen since Brooks Robinson. Like Brooks, he can charge a bunt or slowly hit ball, grab it barehanded and side-arm his throw to 1B with great speed and accuracy. His arm looks stronger than Brooks'. And he has great lateral range and athleticism at 3B. One of the Boston papers used the word "dazzling" this morning. That's the right word, from what I've seen. He is an ESPN highlights type of defensive player. Boras was right when he said he deserved a premium for his defense. The guy looks close to amazing on those YouTube highlights.

Have to agree about Kotchman. As for the world...

I posted in the other thread on Beltre I thought they wanted Castillo to reduce their 2010 salaries by $6mil. His contract is 2/12, and Lowell's is 1/12. He could be a backup at 2B and maybe SS. Also a pinch runner. Good smallball guy.

I posted a couple of weeks ago I thought Beltre was a good option. Good to see defense-minded Theo was thinking the same, too. Though he clearly did not want to commit for more than one year at major dollars. Beltre still has some proving to do before he gets a real Boras type contract. Beltre is a good option because 1) he improves the defense significantly, and 2) he should put up similar offensive numbers to Lowell last year. That would pretty much offset Bay's power numbers, when you include Cameron and VMart. And assume Ortiz can match last year's decreased productivity. I also see there's a rumor of a Lowell for Castillo deal with the Mets-- in MLBtraderumors.com.About the same total money--Castillo for 2 yrs, Lowell for 1 year. That would reduce their 2010 payroll by 6 mil--the only reason they would do this. Lowell might play some 1B in NY. To all those Yankee trolls (including some very good posters) who are in denial about who is the Big Spender of Baseball--it must be frustrating rooting for the 800 lb Gorilla. We all feel your pain. LOL.

Maybe they should just stay put, extend Beckett and VMart, and go shopping next year--or this July.That makes sense to me. But they need another solution than Kotchman at 1B. Can't see that. Maybe Lowell at 3B or 1B if they don't deal him (he will have to show something to deal him, and maybe they should keep him if he does); maybe Lowrie can surprise. LaRoche wants way too much money.

The conflicting media reports make it impossible to tell how serious the Red Sox' interest in Beltre is. You just don't know whether they value Beltre's defense enough to offset his hitting--which should rebound some in 2010. And how much they are willing to pay. You also don't know if they will deal with Boras. As for this luxury tax talk, I don't know if Beltre would impact that, and they have so much money coming off the books next year that it isn't a problem long term. Rosenthal at Foxsports has a column today where he lumps the Red Sox and the Yankees as the big spenders. And then has a couple of more free agents going to the Mets. Just an effort, maybe, to take the heat off the Yankees. The Yankees are in a class by themselves when it comes to spending. Money simply isn't a factor--any semblence of fiscal restraint is pure window dressing. They spend when they feel they have to. And they can outbid any team for any player. If there is any other team close, it would be the Mets. They have to compete for fans in NY, and they also have their own cable channel. Wilpon still isn't out of the legal woods with the Madoff scandal, but that doesn't seem to have stopped their spending. No other market can compete with NY. The Red Sox? They have the highest ticket prices in baseball just to stay competitive in the AL East. If it weren't for having to compete with the Yankees, their budget and their ticket prices might be closer to half what it is. Big spending plus good management keeps them competitive--but it is tough.

On this Red Sox vs Yankees thing, it has ALWAYS been about pitching. Even when the Yankees had Raschi, Reynolds and Lopat, and the Red Sox had only Parnell. The Yankees always have hitting, but their pitching slipped early in the decade because they signed too many older FA pitchers and didn't develop any studs in their farm system. They won this past year because of Sabathia and, in the playoffs, Burnett. The Red Sox suffered mainly last year in their starting pitching. The horrible starts of DiceK, Beckett and Lester plus all those gambles Theo signed that failed. What saved them early from worse was Wakefield. I don't expect the pitching to get off to a slow start this year. I would add that Francona may have to play some small ball this year on the road, which he is not used to. They were not good on the road last year, but their pitching wasn't that good to compensate for the expected dropoff in hitting. Francona is accustomed to sitting back and waiting for the hits to fall, but that could change if they don't add any more hitting.

I think Epstein made a smart decision going with Lackey and Cameron when he did. You have to work fast or players get committed to other teams. Bay and Holliday weren't ready to sign when the Red Sox had openings, so they went in a different direction while they could. As far as reconsidering Bay, I don't think it was practical for them in terms of who they had signed and how much money they had spent. Bay fell in the Mets lap--it doesn't look like there was any competition. The NY media has been trying to put a good face on the Mets' signing, but I would agree more with Passant on Yahoo Sports that it wasn't a great signing. Bay would have fit better in Boston or at least the AL for obvious reasons. But the Mets always feel compelled to do something. With respect to Holliday, by the way, the Cardinals now appear to be in the same situation as the Mets--bidding against themselves--unless Boras has the Yankees up his sleeve. You can bet he is keeping them tuned in. The Red Sox have a lot of flexibility right now to go in different directions.

I've said in other threads Beltre would be a good pickup if he can produce Lowell's offensive numbers. Chances are he can rebound after an off-year due to injuries. And hit better at Fenway, though his BA at Fenway is below .200. That could be due to the pitching, however. I doubt they'll get him cheap for 1 year. That's Oakland territory. Maybe 3/27 might get him. You're talking about Boras here. AdGon cheaper? Not in terms of the king's ransom of players it would cost them. Not exactly buying low. It could weaken them overall. Anybody notice all of the top Red Sox OF prospects bat left-handed? Kalish, Reddick, Westmoreland. It just points to their need for another RHd hitting outfielder. Or any RHd bats--for that matter. Look for Lowell to get a good look in ST.

Heck, they should just offer him a Budweiser distributorship in a major city. That would seal it.

The Red Sox are in a good position right now.They will probably sign another RHd hitting outfielder. If the price is right, they might sign Beltre. If not, they can wait until ST and see how Lowell is playing. Lowell could be traded, or he could play 3B--or even DH and play 1B some. I have no doubt he can play 1B, having played 3B. A common switch. Or they might sign Branyon, if the price is right. Or they might trade for AdGon at some point. What might complicate things is if the Yankees signed Holliday. Then, they might be compelled to push for an AdGon trade. They have the pieces to make it happen. You make an offer that can't be refused. Hoyer knows he has to trade AdGon eventually, anyways.

My reading of Bay's situation is he blew it when he turned down 4/60 from the Red Sox last summer. He wanted to be a FA to see what he could get. He got 4/65 from the Mets. The Red Sox moved on and signed Lackey and Cameron. Bay presumably found the market barren, and went back to the Red Sox, who probably said they weren't in a position to offer him 4/60 or whatever again, so he finally accepted the Mets offer with an option year thrown in. I doubt any other deal was on the table at that point. I think the Mets added the option year so they wouldn't look like they were competing with themselves. They no doubt were. The Red Sox were not in the picture. It's a shame. The guy misinterpreted the market, and wound up with a team that wasn't his first choice. He got his money, and will have to be satisfied with the Mets. With the immense win pressure in NY, I have no doubt they will move that LF fence in. Even then, the Mets have no chance to realize full value, since Bay will be DH material in 2-3 years. I see this as a typical Mets FA move.

For links, I've found the best place is http://www.mlbtraderumors.com

Regarding Vasquez, his record is he's a different pitcher in the AL. Not as good as the NL. If that's the case, he might not be much of an upgrade. He's RHd, so no advantage in Yankee Stadium. He cost the Yankees $8 mil in the deal, but they gave up expendable players. I think the Red Sox are serious about Beltre, Lowell or no. I've written that they are about the same power-wise as last year--without Bay-- if Beltre can hit like Lowell. And much better defensively. Plus they get to keep Buchholz and Ellsbury. They might go as high as $9-10 mil/3 years for him. I'm not convinced they will go with Kotchman full-time at 1B. That will drop their power numbers.

First of all, they improved their defense, along with their pitching. Offensively, they added VMart, which will make a big difference. Also improved their offense at SS. Kotchman will have to hit better playing regularly. And Ortiz can't disappear in April and May.That will be a big factor in determining if they deal early to upgrade their offense. They also have a pretty good bat in Lowell to replace. I'm betting Lowell gets a shot if he shows anything in ST. I think the Red Sox are a team in transition. Not the old Ramirez-Ortiz team.

The Yankees played a bit over their heads last year--especially in the playoffs, where their pitching overachieved. The opposite was true of the Red Sox last year. Call it an off-year. This year, I still like the Yankees on paper. I also like their manager better than Francona. Tito is a great guy, uses the whole team well, but he has a tendency to relax at times until September. Girardi is more intense, maybe because the pressure to win in NY is greater.

I still think there's a chance they will go after Beltre if the price is right. That will seal their defense. There is also talk about Branyon at 1B, though his OBP isn't what they like. And Nady figures to be an option in the OF.

Hope they don't. Because you know Boras will take their offer to the Yankees, and Holliday will wind up in NY. Holliday may have a better chance of winding up in St Louis if the Red Sox stay out of it.