mvp 78

They didn't even pretend to be in on Ohtani, so at least this is in the right direction.

If that was the case, he'd be out on red flag Fried.

He'll get more than 45M.

1. One of the big 4 doesn't make it to BOS this season. 2. Kristian Campbell starts on Opening Day. 3. Tanner Houck is the Opening Day starter. 4. Trevor Story doesn't have an IL stint in 2025. 5. Meidroth gets 200 PA's in BOS this year.

There was a 200M "budget" put into the calculation. It's a very rough estimation for our purposes and calculated by TalkSox, not the poster. I added in other adjustments to get it close to what FO looks at (CBT stuff). Crochet is going to want to be PAID. If the Sox want to trade for him, they better extend him the very first week. I was conservative on his line item.

A standing ovation on Opening Day.

Crochet for Mayer Grissom stays at AAA, acts as backup for Story (move Campbell to SS in that scenario).

BTV just functions as a big spreadsheet and is more for fun than anything else. It's the only real valuation tool that we have available to us so it's fine for our purposes, but I wouldn't read too much into it. I don't think they really get into the nitty gritty about how much better Casas could be over the next 4 years than Raley when factoring age. Casas is obviously getting dinged from his injury in '24 and his slow start in '23.

Sign Burnes and have him stop throwing the horrible sinker.

I don't think the Sox were ever going to get a trade offer from the Dodgers that was going to appease Sox fans. If the Dodgers gave up Lux, Gonsolin and May it would have been an absolute coup. Since the trade: May: 3.3 bWAR Gonsolin: 6.8 bWAR Lux: 7.0 bWAR Total: 17.1 bWAR Betts: 27.4 bWAR Yes, you can say it's just for one year of Mookie, but many fans would still be frustrated with the return.

Nate's contract isn't the 7/180 or whatever some people have thrown around here. I'm just being honest about the risk involved. I don't think people are aware. We have enough dead contracts to worry about and an owner who is gun shy right now.

If Downs simply turned into a 2 WAR guy, it would have been more tolerable. However, you can't rely on a guy with only 12 G above A ball to be a known commodity. Bad deal!

He last had TJ 10 years ago. If he's still missing time because of a forearm strain, I'm worried that the second surgery is around the corner. Is that crazy of me? If he has the second surgery, he's basically all done.

I just cringe a little at the COVID/Betts contract conjecture because it was used at the time to give Henry cover by some posters for not being able to get a deal done. Henry messed up. If he just paid the 400M to Mookie, it would have been an overpay, but we'd be in a better spot right now.

We have no idea.

I increased the ARB raises as some seemed a little light and to be a little conservative on it. I also adjust Rafaela and Bello so that they reflect their CBT cost rather than cash. Also note that Yoshida and Giolito will not be ready on Opening Day. What it shows is that with some of the blockers on the roster (Story, Gio, Masa), there isn't really room to acquire 2 starting pitchers PLUS high end bullpen help. If Pivetta opts out, there's a little more room and maybe they can add Flaherty or another high end guy. Hard to say though. Also, no realistic shot at Soto unless Henry gets amnesia and Werner (loves his stars!) takes over the team. 😩 I think this gets them close to their comfort level with the CBT (just under at the start of the year) and maybe they try to shed Yoshida if he comes back healthy and they eat salary for a few years. That 6M Rafaela AAV extension didn't seem like much to people at the time, but it would prevent a cheap owner from getting a solid middle reliever. The Bello contract too. You need them to be BETTER or these extensions are just not really worth it over the lifetime of the contracts. I think it's a roster that will be better in June/July once supplemented with young talent and talent coming of the IL. C: Connor Wong ($0.80M) 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M) 2B: Krisitan Campbell ($0.80M) 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M) SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M) LF: Jarren Duran ($5.00M) CF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($6.25M) RF: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M) DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.60M) 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M) Utility: David Hamilton ($0.80M) Utility: Romy Gonzalez ($0.80M) Backup C: Jacob Stallings ($1.50M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Garrett Crochet ($25.00M) SP2: Tanner Houck ($5.00M) SP3: Brayan Bello ($9.17M) SP4: Nick Pivetta ($21.00M) SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M) RP: Tanner Scott ($14.00M) RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M) RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M) RP: Greg Weissert ($0.80M) RP: Kutter Crawford ($4.00M) RP: Luis Guerrero ($0.80M) RP: Zack Kelly ($0.80M) RP: Michael Fulmer ($1.50M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 2.08% under budget

Fried already had TJS once. He began having elbow, nerve and forearm issues in '23 (IL stints, missed half the season) and '24 again (one 15 day IL "forearm neuritis"). At the time of all the IL stints, all the talk was his previous TJS and him trying to rehab to avoid a second one.

1. I was doing a TalkSox goof. 2. I don't believe COVID had any impact. 3. The guys at his level are now being paid more so his contract is now below market. I'd much rather have Mookie than Soto. 4. The Dodgers should trade Mookie!

I have zero interest in Snell. Fried has injury concerns, but I'd be happy if they signed him.

Can't outspend anyone with Int'l money. He gets to pick and choose where he wants to go. It won't be here.

Brez should sign Soto while Henry isn't paying attention. If they keep underspending, you know where the money is going and where the priorities lie: Last July, the Boston Planning and Development Agency approved Fenway Corners, “a $1.6 billion mixed-use project that will bring offices, labs, apartments, a slew of retailers, and street-level upgrades along Jersey Street, Brookline Avenue, and Van Ness Street,” according to the Boston Globe. The construction on the eight-building build has not yet begun. “Obviously, the brand new 5,000-person MGM Music Hall that sits just behind the right field bleachers opened about two years ago and has really enhanced the neighborhood,” Kennedy said. “We have not broken ground on our Fenway Corners project yet given the environment for real estate development. We’re not there yet, but hopefully we’re inching closer to that. If you have a chance to look on the BPDA’s website, you can see what Jersey Street is going to look like down the road with retail hotels and residential. I just think this neighborhood is going to continue to be upgraded into 2025 and beyond.”

Betts signed a below market deal!

An ultra-elite athlete then? What a surprise. We don't know how he'll age, but there have always been guys that were absolute units at age 18.

Whatever his age says on bref. There is an outspoken agent on TikTok who has spoken out against other latin ballplayers and their ages (Pujols for example) but states unequivocally that Soto is legit. Automatically assuming Soto isn't the age he is because he's so good, it pretty unfair to him. Their were rumors about Pujols going back to his FA signing with the Angels. There are no real rumors about Soto, just a lot of fans that probably wish the game looked a little differently.