Doubront is not arb elegible, and neither are Bard, Lowrie or Atchison.
The arbitration elegible players are Papelbon, Ellsbury, Okajima, and Salty. Ellsbury is not breaking 5 mill after missing almost all of '09, 'Jima is owed a marginal raise, the rest of the guys with the exception of Atchison are not Arb-elegible, and Atchison is probably re-signing for a similar contract.
My initial estimates:
Papelbon: 3 million raise.
Ells: 3 million raise.
'Jima: 1 million raise.
Salty: 500 K raise.
Atchison: Re-signed for one million dollars.
Rest of the guys: Contract renewed. That brings us to right about 10 million.
My source: Cot's Baseball Contracts 2010-14 Boston Red Sox
I think you've over-estimating the cost of your minors, arb contracts, because you only need to account for the increase, not the whole salary.