Dipre

As John Henry stated himself (i'll try and find the link) it was a poor choice of words by Epstein. The issue was that the offense was full of question marks, ranging from Cameron's age, to Drew's fragility, Scutaro's offensive ability, Martinez and his woes with catching over 100 games, among others. I believe they signed Beltre expecting great production, but got more than what they expected. As i stated earlier, i believe it's logical to think teams create a "floor" of what they expect to be a player's level of production for any given season, and i believe Beltre's "floor" to have been a mid-to-high .800's OPS, meaning he outplayed their expectations, but the expectations for him to perform at a high level were there. Of course, that's just my opinion, since i have no formal knowledge of the FO's line of thinking, just like everyone else here.

Because talking in absolutes is logical fallacy. Metrics give you a pretty clear picture of what a player has done and can to a certain extent, predict what they will do, but they are not 100% accurate, just like watching a guy play for an extended time can give you an idea of his talent level, and how he will perform barring injury, but it's not 100% accurate either. What we do need the statistical analysis for is comprehending an expected level of performance from a player in a neutral set of circumstances and relate them to the context he will be playing in. Because you don't bank (although i still believe in the FA-year phenomenon) on a player performing above his statistical capacity just because it's a contract year. Instead you look for a reasonable performance floor and use it as a base to create your financial decisions on. There's also the fact that (and i can't stress this enough) we're talking about people who, from a statistical and scouting stand-point, know what they're doing.

Now that you mention it, with the whole "pitching and defense" mantra of the offseason this makes a lot of sense. What doesn't make sense is what a700's arguing. Palodios himself said that he expected more or less the .872 OPS Beltre presented while playing in AL East stadiums this year, but arguing about his proficiency in the road, which can be explained, to some extent, with the "luck" term that he's been using. However, the rise to near .900 OPS level and 60+ XBH performance Beltre boasted in 2010 was something that, given the nature of the environment he played in and his fit with the stadium, was expected by many people. Had he produced an .872 OPS instead of the .900+ one he actually did, with similar numbers, but a lower OBP due to less luck with balls on play, would we be calling the FO "smart" or "lucky". Can we just agree that the guy was a good signing? Because he was.

Apparently you didn't notice the part where i noted that his performance was indeed helped by luck (BABIP) and that his overall performance should have been an upper .800 OPS season, but that luck, combined with the desire for a new contract (speculation) pushed his performance to another level. You're cherry picking for the sake of arguing. We both agree that he was somewhat lucky, but the point where we differ is that you seem to think it was a sheer stroke of luck that Beltre decided to get his s*** together for the season when he was going to get his last big contract. That's what i don't buy. He's always been a much better hitter on the road than at home, and he moved to a division which had much cozier away ballparks. While the element of luck was certainly there (for Beltre personally, on a BABIP level) his home/away splits followed the same career trend they've always had.

You're still missing the whole point. I used his 2010 numbers to prove how variable statistics are under SSS, which is why you use actual park factors as a benchmark for analyzing his performance. You haven't answered my question: Which do you think is a better hitter's environment, the AL West or the AL East? Specially with the type of hitter Beltre is? If you want an outlier, look at 2004. 2010 was inflated by a bit of luck with his BABIP (which is far more significant for a hitter who barely walks) and the argument could be made that away from hitter's parks, due to the nature of his offensive game, and OPS above .850 was easily expected from him last year when taking a look at all the variables. Hit tracker, park factors, and the onset of a healthy season all pointed out to the same thing: Increased production in 2010, and that is exactly what happened. Give credit to the FO for anticipating that putting him into that situation would yield results, which it did, instead of trying to look at "luck" as the reason the acquisition paid off. That being said, i saw you make a point about re-signing him, which is a point i have never brought up, or have ever mentioned in my past analysis of his 2010 season. I think motivation for a new contract also had to do with his performance (although purely speculation on my part) and because of that i think he will receive a contract he will not live up to.

Of course it's easy to prove. You're using and including a time he was injured. Use 2010 as a benchmark: Tropicana.935 Rogers 1.057 New Yankee .448 Camden 1.025 Fenway .881 That's the problem with SSS, and it's why you compare stadium Park Factors for an objective look at the stadium-to-stadium difference, you also look at hit tracker to check the amount of HR's hit on said stadiums during at least a three-year period. I did all of this at the beginning of the season, and noted a significant difference between the AL East and AL West, thought you don't even need stats to figure that out. The one thing i will concede, however, is that he was very lucky on balls in play this year, which helped inflate both his AVG and his SLG%, but not enough to drag him down to a mid-800 OPS as you suggest.

Beltre's "surge" for 2010 consists of two issues: 1) Getting the hell away from the AL West: For the type of hitter Beltre is, which of the following group of stadiums is more conductive towards increased production? Group A: Angel Stadium, Oakland Coliseum and Rangers Ballpark with 81 games at Safeco. Or Group B: Camden Yards, Rogers Centre, Yankee Stadium, Tropicana Field and 81 games at Fenway Park. In group A, only Rangers Ballpark is conductive for power from RHH who drive the ball to the opposite field regularly, while in group B, every ballpark is conductive to power numbers from RHH who take the ball to the opposite field regularly. Group A consists of three pitcher's stadium, and one hitter's stadium, and Group B consists of five stadiums that favor hitting. 2) The Free Agent effect: I said several times on site (take this with a grain of salt obviously) that Beltre had been preparing himself for another 2004-like season according to reports from the facility he was training at in the DR, and sure enough, he had his best season since 2004. I believe in the "FA year effect" many don't, but Beltre seems like a textbook example that it does exist.

You're not the one who proclaims his "40+ years of fandom" as explanation for most of his opinions. It's not about you, so stop making assumptions.

You mean looking at the statistics of a player and using it as reference to predict future performance as well as using a comparison between the park said player used to play at and the stadium he would play in the upcoming season and their impact on hitters like him is better than watching the guy a couple times and using "40+ years of watching baseball" (or something of the sort) to come up with an opinion? NOOOOOOOOOOO!!! (Not directed at anyone in particular by the way).

I don't buy it. Ortiz finished '09 strong and had given all necessary indications that he would be productive again in 2010. As for Beltre, i tooted his horn all season long, because from his statistics in Seattle and the fact that he was a FA-to be a monster season was expected by anyone who'd checked his past history of performance. With both players, the only question was health.

I don't buy it. Ortiz finished '09 strong and had given all necessary indications that he would be productive again in 2010. As for Beltre, i tooted his horn all season long, because from his statistics in Seattle and the fact that he was a FA-to be a monster season was expected by anyone who'd checked his past history of performance. With both players, the only question was health.

Dunn, Werth, Olivo, Putz, Feliciano, Balfour. Get it done!

That's why i made the disclaimer. It's more of a "what i would like to happen" kinda thing. Now you all bring up a good point about keeping the prospects and the need for inexpensive talent, so what about Adam Dunn on a three-year deal to play 1B the first year then DH the other two? Werth- 17 Mill. Dunn- 12 mill. 'Tek- 4 Mill Three relievers at 9 mill combined. Bring back Bill Hall or a Bill Hall- type for 4 mill. 46 million, get to keep all of your prospects and field the following lineup for 2011 and 2012 (provided they sign A-Gon) 2011: 1) Ellsbury 2) Pedroia 3)Youkilis 4)Dunn 5)Werth 6)Ortiz 7)'Tek/Salty 8)Drew 9)Scutaro/Lowrie 2012: 1) Ellsbury 2)Pedroia 3)Youkilis 4)Gonzales 5)Werth 6)Dunn 7)Salty 8)Kalish 9)Iglesias/Lowrie. Both seem like pretty convincing lineups to me. Specially since thinking about it for a second, the best FA in terms of offense is actually Dunn, not either Crawford or Werth, at least in my opinion, given his skillset (Extreme power + OBP).

Dipre's dream off-season: (Note the "dream part, it's possible, but likely won't happen). The Red Sox still have around 43-47 million to play with (they currently have 112 million allocated, let's add 12 for Paps, 2.75 for Okajima, and 4.2 for Ellsbury,bringing the total up to 130 million) and if i was them, this is what i'd do: 1)Sign Jayson Werth (4/68, vesting option for a 5th for 18.5 mill). (17 mill for '11) 2)Trade Casey Kelly (blocked to some extent), Anthony Rizzo (replacement for A-Gon), Kalish, Doubront and another, lower-tier piece for A-Gon and Heath Bell. I believe that on a one-year deal, Gonzales' value is much lower than it was before last year, that is a package that helps the Padres in many levels, and if i had to add another piece, i certainly would do it as well. 3)Gonzo:6.3 mill for '11. Bell: Final year of arb, likely 6 mill for '11. 4) Bring Varitek back: 1 year, 4.5 million. 5) Sign Pedro Feliciano: 2 year, 6 million. (3 million for '11). 6)Sign one more BP arm from the following group: Hisanori Takahashi, JJ Putz, Jon Rauch, Grant Balfour, Tyler Walker, Ron Mahay. (3 for '11 ) 7)Bring back Bill Hall (3.5 mill). Total: 45.5 million. My 25-man roster, lineup, rotation and bullpen: C- Salty 1B- Gonzales 2B-Pedroia 3B- Youkilis SS- Lowrie/Scutaro LF: Drew CF:Ellsbury RF:Werth DH: David Ortiz. Bench: Varitek © Lowrie/Scutaro (2B,3B,SS) Cameron (OF) Rotation: 1)Lester 2)Bucholz 3)Beckett 4)Lackey 5)Dice-K Bullpen: LRP Atchison MRP Okajima MRP Feliciano MRP Balfour SU: Papelbon SU: Bard CL: Bell. Lineup: Against righties: 1) Ellsbury CF 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Youkilis 3B 4) Gonzales 1B 5) Werth RF 6) Ortiz DH 7) Drew LF 8) Salty C 9) Lowrie SS Against Lefties: 1) Ellsbury LF (If Cameron is healthy) 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Youkilis 3B 4)Gonzales 1B 5) Werth RF 6) Ortiz/Drew DH 7)Cameron CF 8)Varitek C 9)Scutaro SS Disclaimer: This is only a mental exercise on how i would do things if i were running the team, i am not a talent evaluator, nor a member of a team's Front Office, and i do not claim to be so either. I let the people who know what they're doing make the decisions.

This is relevant to the current discussion how?

They could also sign Werth, trade for Gonzales, keep 'Tek and field the following lineup: 1)Ellsbury 2)Pedroia 3)Youkilis 4)Gonzales 5)Werth 6)Ortiz 7)Salty/ 'Tek 8)Drew 9)Scutaro. Or: Sign Crawford, trade for Gonzales, keep 'Tek and field the following lineup: 1)Crawford 2)Pedroia 3)Gonzales 4)Youkilis 5)Ortiz 6)Salty/'Tek 7)Drew 8)Scutaro 9)Ellsbury They would be competitive lineups either way IMO.

The Werth vs. Carawford debate. Personally, i think Crawford is overrated because of his speed, which, once he ages, will be the first thing to go. Werth is a rare hybrid of semi 5-tool player that is usually the perfect compliment to any lineup, and he can hit both lefties and righties to boot. If you look at the way the Boston Red are constructed, the stadium they play in, and the fact that Werth, albeit older than Crawford, has a skillset that will likely age better, less platoon issues (.801 career OPS vs righties), and will cost less money, i don't see how anyone can complain that the guy could be a "consolation prize" to Crawford, who has better speed, but is not the superior player overall. As for the "He plays in the NL" line of thinking (which is laughable by the way), here's a list of players who have come from the NL the last couple of years to light the AL on fire: Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Placido Polanco, Vladimir Guerrero, and those are just off the top of my head. And the reason why the "Hitters from the NL would suck in the AL" argument is retarded has two basic reasons: A) The reason why pitchers going to the NL from the NL enjoy a rise in their numbers, is not an indication of a specific "per-hitter" trend but rather a reflection of two notable differences between AL and NL lineups, one being the lack of DH, the other being the emphasis on defense at some positions (C, SS) which usually makes NL lineups "shorter" than AL lineups. However, good pitching is good pitching, and a good NL pitcher is just as likely to get out a good AL hitter as a good AL pitcher is likely to get out a good NL hitter. It's a matter of talent, and talent is shown through the numbers. B ) The stupid double standard that people who use this as a basis for criticizing a player use, because they don't like "player X" but a couple posts later they'll be pining for Pujols or Hanley or Upton or whoever. Consistency please. In the end, it's not about which player you have a hard-on for, but which player will help the organization win, and due to overall level of talent and cost, i believe that player is Jayson Werth.

DAMN IT, OLIVO IS LOADS OF FUN!!! Besides, i like Werth better than Crawford because chicks dig the long ball.

Admit what? Right now, Adam Dunn is a better all-around option than Manny. He can play 1st, LF and RF, hits for more power, gets on base at a similar clip and keeps his mouth shut. He's also a better long-term option for the Sox, since they can move him to DH and pursue A-Gon (who will end up in Boston unless trades + extends him mid-season). Adam Dunn 2009-2010: 264/378/533 .910 OPS., 141 OPS+ 31 years old next season. Manny Ramirez 2009-2010: 298/414/ 501 .915 OPS, 147 OPS+. 38 years old next season. .006 OPS difference in favor of Manny. Everything else in favor of Dunn.