Jayhawk Bill

You just made a dumb post. Kennedy sucks worse than Lester at his cancer-stricken worst...BTW, I forgot to mention that AL offense is down 8.2% from Lester's worst days to today, Kennedy's worst days. Failing to see how badly Kennedy is doing is either an exercise in ignorance or a denial of the realities involved.

The average speed of Ian Kennedy's pitches was 86.6 mph last year. The average speed of his fastball was 91.0 mph. Here's a list of 2007 MLB starting RHP Kennedy's size (six feet tall or less) whose aggregate pitch velocity was under 90 mph last year*: [table]Name | Avg Speed Elmer Dessens | 87.4 Ian Kennedy | 86.6 Tim Redding | 85.9 Greg Maddux | 85.1 Woody Williams | 84.2 Yusmeiro Petit | 83.8 Josh Fogg | 83.7[/table] This isn't exactly a list of superstar pitchers. How did Kennedy post such a low ERA? 1) His xFIP was over 5.00...he got lucky. 2) He had, by my count, 33 pitches outside the strike zone that were called strikes, 12% of all of his pitches thrown. He had balls missing on either side by as much as 7" called as strikes. He had four gifted strikes for every strike taken away by umpires' calls. * Pitch f/x data pulled on September 1, 2007 for all pitchers except Kennedy.

FWIW, Ron Kulpa made up for his earlier bias against the Reds, expanding the strike zone to try to get the game over. So far it hasn't seemed to help the Reds too much...

Look, guys, it's 5-0 in the third inning, Beckett's on the mound, and Kulpa is favoring Boston. I'll be watching the game, but I'm leaving the game thread for a bit--I'll be back if the potential tying run reaches base.

Bailey has also figured out how to keep Drew from stealing bases.

Bailey has figured out how to prevent Ellsbury from stealing bases.

And he got the very dangerous Bruce to pop up to second.

I hope that Coco has decided to juice, and that we're seeing the effects.

Another Crisp home run--3-0, Boston. Remy: "From what I've seen of Homer Bailey thus far, I don't know his best pitch--if he has one."

You know, thus far Ron Kulpa has been way tougher on Homer Bailey than on Josh Beckett regarding ball-strike calls.

Remdawg now comments on the tight strike zone. Strike three!

On the NESN angles, I had no idea why Youk let the ball go past him. :dunno:

Tough walk for Bailey to Drew--that could've been 2-2 easily. Let's see if Beckett is given as tight a strike zone and how he does with it.

Great at bat by Dustin Pedroia...Ellsbury starts at first base and scores!

VERY nice...standing on third base now.

Leadoff single for Ellsbury...stolen base on the first pitch.

Beckett is a moderate* fly ball pitcher--good call on giving Manny another day and keeping Ellsbury in LF. Manny can be used as a pinch-hitter at an opportune moment if need be. * Edit: I hadn't realized until I just did a quick fact check that there are only five AL qualifying starting pitchers with GB% lower than Beckett's this year. In 2008, he's a fly ball pitcher, with no "moderate" qualifier needed.

You clearly don't know what you're talking about. Ohlendorf started fewer than half of his professional games in calendar year 2007, and he was originally projected to serve as a relief pitcher/spot starter by PECOTA based upon the actual use pattern of pitchers with similar records (and phenotypes) at the same age. BP then adjusted their projections based upon actual final depth charts (last updated in April), projecting 60 relief IP, zero games started, and the same 5.95 ERA. PECOTA's MLE system was overhauled 2-3 years ago. It used to be their weakest area, but they're doing much better regarding minor league translations and projections in the past two seasons, IIRC. I know that PECOTA is ranked at or near the top of all systems each year. *** But you criticize PECOTA as "putrid" and a "farse." Do you personally have a better record of projections? See, Jacko, when I thread-mine your past prognostications, your record appears worse than Nate Silver's PECOTA. If that's true, and PECOTA is "putrid," what adjective properly describes your projections? :dunno:

I notice that "pleasant but boring" mojo has transformed into "Marine Corps amphibious assault" mojo during, roughly, the nearly rained-out game Friday night. Which is cool... Happy Fathers Day! My kids seem to have forgetten...Mrs. JHB pointed to a picture of a gas grill this morning and encouraged me to buy it, given that our old grill needs replacing. I'll have to try getting her a picture of a dishwasher, clothes dryer or some other appliance that's wearing out for Mother's Day...nah, that would just make things painful. But, hey, maybe Josh Beckett can make this a happy day for every Dad in Red Sox Nation!

I'd suggest that a number two starter pitches fewer innings than a number one starter and more than a number three starter. Using that definition, I quickly checked (source THT) the 15th through 28th-ranked AL pitchers in IP for 2007. Here are the median stats: W-L: 14.5 - 10 ERA: 4.24 SO: 124 BB: 63 IP: 197.5 GS: 31 OK...a number two starter might be a guy with a 14-10 record in 30 starts, an ERA a bit over 4.00, a 2:1 K/BB ratio in MLB, who approaches 200 IP. Ian Kennedy isn't near that level today. I cited one report suggesting that he's near his ceiling--I've read others. I also know from reading Pitch f/x logs that he struggles unless he's given the outside pitch, especially with respect to lefties. Some might consider the nine-game 2008 sample too small to assess that Ian Kennedy won't reach this level. I don't. My reasons are these: 1) His velocity is low for a young pitcher, maxing at about 92 mph. Such pitchers can succeed, but there are few who do. Greg Maddux was the primary exception, and it's now considered that his being given an expanded strike zone by most MLB umpires was critical to his success. With Pitch f/x in every ballpark, preferential strike zones are becoming things of the past. 2) If one checks the xFIP of Ian Kennedy's work in 2007, it wasn't much different from his xFIP in 2008. [table] Season | ERA | xFIP 2007 | 1.89 | 5.15 2008 | 7.41 | 5.86 [/table] The "real" Ian Kennedy is probably around that 5.86 xFIP, which is what he's getting with a fair strike zone in most of his games. That would leave his ERA in the high fives, much worse than the norm for AL second starters. If Kennedy had room to grow, things would be different, but pitchers as a rule peak earlier than position players, and Kennedy in particular appears to have hit his ceiling.

Ross Ohlendorf, 2008 PECOTA Weighted Mean Projection: 5.95 ERA, 63 IP Ross Ohlendorf, actual mid-season 2008 stats: 5.71 ERA, 34.7 IP Ohlendorf has been used very slightly more than projected. His ERA is very slightly less than projected. Exactly how has he been ruined by Girardi? See, from here it looks more as if Ohlendorf wasn't expected to be very good and he's roughly matched expectations. :dunno:

How about Grenada? Do we really need a slog through the trench lines? :dunno: