Jayhawk Bill

:dunno: As I posted when he was acquired, does it do Boston any good to have Casey with Boston if it buries Chris Carter at Pawtucket? :dunno:

Yeah, but ERA+ is a little misleading in inter-era comparison because runs vary with the square of offensive output...Maddux and Martinez have an edge over Koufax because of the higher-scoring era. At his peak, Koufax struck out 1,228 batters in just four years. In an era of HIGHER strikeout rates, from 1997 to 2000 Pedro earned 1,153, his best four-year stretch. I give the overall edge to Pedro for other reasons, but it's closer than you're making it out to be, ORS.

Dunno about that, but IMO the three MLB starting pitchers with the highest established peak performance levels (levels sustained over three or more years) are Pedro Martinez, Sandy Koufax, and Greg Maddux, from best to worst. Pedro > Koufax.

Damn. JD Drew hit a line drive with a runner on third and just one out--that's worth a run 90% of the time.

Nice steal by Crisp...he's trying to make the most of his moments without Ellsbury.

Wakefield OWNS Beltre. Letting him walk with two outs may make sense 3-1, but I still don't like it, especially with just one out.

Dammit. 2-2.

Cave man.

On-base machine Kevin Cash goes to first with two out.

No trouble for me on DirecTV, New York City feed.

Close play at third with two outs on that triple by JD Drew. Two-run home run by Manny--but Drew almost ran Boston out of the inning.

Tim Wakefield demonstrates composure under pressure.

Mike Lowell is also out. Only three of Boston's nine regular starters are playing their normal position; none are at their normal spot in the batting order. Tito always likes giving his regulars a break with Wakefield pitching, it seems. Today is no exception.

D3 is probably the best single, quickly available metric regarding the caliber of an MLB manager and his team. *** What is D3? To understand that, a few other definitions: W, L : Actual team wins and losses. First-order wins and losses: Expected wins and losses, based on a team's actual runs scored and runs allowed. Equivalent average (EQA): A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA. Equivalent runs (EQR): EQR = 5 * OUT * EQA^2.5. In the fielding charts, the estimated number of EqR he had at the plate while playing this position in the field. In Adjusted Standings, EqR refers to the total number of equivalent runs scored by the team. Second-order wins and losses: Expected wins and losses, based on a team's equivalent runs scored and equivalent runs allowed. Adjusted equivalent runs (AEQR): EQR, adjusted for the exact strength of opposing teams' players. Third-order wins and losses: Expected wins and losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA. *** What is D3? D3 is the difference between actual wins and third-order wins. That's the difference between how a team actually did and how it should have done, given 1) Its exact hits, walks and other contributions on offense; 2) Its exact hits and walks allowed, and other contributions on defense; 3) The strength of its opposition. A good (or lucky) manager has a positive D3, getting more wins than expected, given how his players did. The mean of D3 across MLB is, of course, zero. The standard deviation is 3.0. Let's look at the worst MLB managers by D3: John Gibbons, Blue Jays (-4.1 games): John Gibbons' own grandmother reportedly asked him if he was going to be fired, given that he was doing so badly. Clint Hurdle, Rockies (-4.0 games): Clint Hurdle has been known by stats guys, especially Chris Jaffe (who has studied this carefully), as one of the worst managers in MLB history, and probably the worst of this century. Jim Leyland, Tigers (-3.7 games): Jim Leyland's team was supposed to be a contender, and they're ten games back in a weak division. Part of it is the players, but part is that they're winning less than they should, too. OK, these make sense. Who are the best? Mike Scioscia, Angels (+8.2 games): Yes, that's right. The Angels have won 38 games, and eight of those games can be credited either to good luck or to the managerial skill of Mike Scioscia. Given that Scioscia has a strong reputation, and that he's a perennial leader in this metric, and that 8.2 is almost three standard deviations above the mean, it's probably not just luck. Mike Scioscia is probably the best manager in MLB right now. Ron Gardenhire, Twins (+5.0 games): Another perennial strong manager, taking a "rebuilding team" into contention in the AL Central, Gardenhire is doing a fine job this year. Manny Acta, Nationals (+3.5 games): For some reason, Acta is highly regarded, even though his team stinks. This metric supports that. Tony LaRussa, Cardinals (+3.5 games): A perennial contender for Manager of the Year, and certainly one of the great MLB managers of all time, LaRussa is, again, exceeding expectations. No surprises here, either. *** Terry Francona is currently at -1.5 wins by D3. This isn't unusual; Terry Francona comes up short in most attempts at quantitative analysis. Chris Jaffe's work found him to be, along with Clint Hurdle, probably one of the two worst managers of his generation. Let's see how things go for Terry Francona over the next few weeks with respect to D3. With the minor and major injuries on the ballclub, plus the recent suspensions, Terry Francona has a chance to make a difference. We'll see which way he makes that difference.

Yes! Here's the World Football web page that gives the basic math of an ELO System: http://www.eloratings.net/system.html And here's how Nate Silver adapted that system to MLB: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5247 The highest year-ending ELO ranking of this decade was that of the 2004 Boston Red Sox; that team ranked eighth since 1960; here are the top ten teams since 1960, based upon year-end scores: 1. 1998 Yankees 2. 1970 Orioles 3. 1961 Yankees 4. 1975 Reds 5. 1999 Yankees 6. 1995 Guardians* 7. 1976 Reds 8. 2004 Red Sox 9. 2001 A's** 10. 2002 Angels * Lost World Series ** Lost ALDS Note the dominance of the AL, especially the AL East, and particularly the Yankees. FWIW, the next three slots on the list are AL teams, too.

Dilithium crystals? In response to a serious discussion of Pedroia's value? Exactly who started it?

MLB.com: Enter Tim Wakefield. Now in his 14th season with the Boston Red Sox, Tim Wakefield has seen it all. His single MLB-quality pitch may be a fickle mistress, but he will take the mound today unfazed by recent turmoil, ready to baffle the Mariners' batters in his 350th start for the Boston Red Sox. When Tim Wakefield first pitched for Boston, the youngest player in the AL was a shortstop for Seattle named Alex Rodriguez, and the oldest was a DH for Cleveland named Dave Winfield. Tim Wakefield has seen torn tendon sheaths and twisted right wrists and, most likely, he's even seen Manny being angry instead of Manny being Manny. In the past few years Wakefield has liked pitching in daylight, and he's certainly liked facing Seattle: he's only started two games against the Mariners from 2006-2008, but he only allowed three earned runs in those two starts. Expect an exciting game today with Tim Wakefield on the mound, but don't expect to see the veteran knuckleballer affected in any way by all of the media turmoil. Veterans have a role--this is why Tim Wakefield is on our team. Game Time: 3:55 PM EDT Fenway Park Weather Forecast: Fog clearing by game time, high around 90, wind out to LF at 10-15 mph. Seattle Mariners Miguel Batista RHP (3-6) 5.90 ERA Boston Red Sox Tim Wakefield RHP (3-4) 4.50 ERA

Sean Casey was 3-4...gotta admit, .750 > .667.

I was referencing Mrs. JHB on the .667, YotN, although I agree with her based upon MLE's I've previously posted.

The WARP joke was lame and old...and pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics are two other areas where I've posted, FYI. But, hey, if a 50-odd-year-old guy can't engage in self-deprecating humor, what kind of Board is this?

I DO NOT use Viagra. Why would you suggest such a thing? :dunno:

8-0 Seattle. Mrs. JHB had the ticket: the Red Sox should've sent Ellsbury down, not Carter, and had Carter and his .667 batting average DHing while Moss was still available to play LF.