I don't think Arod will opt out *IF* he signs with the Yankees. I can easily see the Yankees giving him 5 more years at 150 million on top of his current contract. With Giambi coming off, Mussina coming off, Pettite coming off, Pavano coming off, and the influx of young talent in Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Cano, and Wang, the Yankees can afford to sign Arod to what he wants.
Basically, if Cashman gives him 5 years at 150 million, and he's got 81 million coming to him over the next 3, what team is going to give any player 8 years at 231 million? It's a high stakes game of poker, and Cashman/Steinbrenner have held their own with Boras. If Arod wants to stay, he will. The money will be there. However, by the Yankees saying they won't be involved if he opts out is not only likely real, but devastating to Boras. With the biggest spenders off the market, Arod won't get as much from the other teams. It really is the best match for both parties. I expect it to come down to the last day, 11 hours into the opt out window. We'll see....