Gom
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Everything posted by Gom
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October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
We match up well with you guys. In fact, I think our best chance is against you guys than it would be against the Angels or the Guardians. Conversely, I think your worst shot is against us. This doesn't mean we will beat you, but we've got to scare you guys a bit. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
We could have said that about the three games in Fenway earlier this year. -
Yes, but I apologized for it, and never started another game thread. If we face each other in the ALCS, I'm gonna hijack one of the game threads for this debacle. War, I tell you. War.
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You should let us start the thread Kilo. It isn't even game day yet.
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October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Congrats on a great start to your ALDS victory. On that note, it's Heineken time. See you guys tomorrow! -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
You were waiting for this, weren't you schillingouttheks, weren't you? Great game by Beckett. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Great performance by Beckett. Congrats on your win, Red Sox fans. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Nah, not dominant. Not at all. Boy, has he made me eat my words tonight. I tip my cap to the kid. Amazing. Why would you take him out? Just let him go the distance. The way he's pitching, he can pitch 30 innings. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
What a nasty pitch by Beckett. Unbelievable performance by the kid. Wow. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
YAY! A HIT!! PARTY TIME! This is pathetic. You watch this game as a Yankee fan, and you wonder how the hell this team has our number. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Good pitch by Lackey. Now they got to do something to Beckett. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
At least we agree that replay would be a good idea. Definitely on safe/out calls, definitely on homerun calls...am I missing something? This is my worst nightmare. Beckett coming out and pitching like he's Sandy Koufax. I hate my life right now. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Safe and out calls should also be included. Balls and strikes, no. Other than that, why not? -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
He's unconscious tonight. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
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October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
This game is over. Red Sox lead the series 1-0. I'm going out drinking sooner than I thought tonight. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Another bad call. Don't complain, all ye who did not favor instant replay when I bitched about it in the Rockies/Padres game. -
Keith Law's scouting report. Enjoy. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been outscored by 20 runs on the season, meaning their projected won-lost record (based on their runs scored and runs allowed totals) is below .500. Their weaknesses as a playoff team outnumber their strengths, but they had the best record in the National League and have home-field advantage in the Division Series. Law's Scouting Reports Strengths The Diamondbacks' bullpen is the main reason they are outperforming their projected record, and it's not just a question of the quality of their arms -- it's how they use them. The Diamondbacks eschew the traditional slotting of roles in their bullpen, with one pitcher the "seventh-inning guy" and another the "eighth-inning guy." Instead, they think of relievers by situation, such as using Juan Cruz as their "tied or down-by-one guy." For most of this season, Arizona has used three relievers in those tight situations. Jose Valverde is the one traditionally used reliever in the group, since he nearly always works as a one-inning closer, although he rarely works in situations when Arizona is up by more than two runs (just 17 of his 63 appearances). Valverde blows most hitters away with high heat in the 93-96 mph range, but he has two solid secondary offerings in a splitter with good bottom and a little fade away from lefties and a slider with a very short, mostly downward break. His arm action in back is ugly, but he hides the ball pretty well and it loosens up as it comes around his body. How They'll Win • Two starts from Brandon Webb should give them a shot at two wins, since only Jake Peavy was better among NL playoff starters. • If they face a pitcher who lacks good offspeed stuff, they've got a lineup of fastball hitters who can crush mistakes. • Smart bullpen management with three, maybe four good arms out there puts them in position to keep games close in the sixth and seventh innings. Backing up Valverde in tight situations before the ninth inning are Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena. Lyon has been both good and lucky this year. He's been good because he commands his 91-93 mph fastball and throws strike after strike, mixing in the occasional curve down and away to righties to try to get a strikeout. He's been lucky because he doesn't really have an outpitch and he works all over the zone with his fastball, which doesn't have a lot of movement, so two homers allowed in more than 70 innings is a lot fewer than his stuff would lead us to expect. Pena was their best reliever for the first four months of the season, working with a plus fastball at 93-95 mph and a very sharp, late-breaking slider at 86-88 mph, but he has worn down as the season has progressed, and the fatigue has taken a toll on his fastball command, which was never great but is now well-below average. The role he had been filling now has been handed to Cruz, who has a similar repertoire but better commands his fastball, especially to his glove side. Arizona's biggest single weapon in the playoffs, however, is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, Brandon Webb. The next time you hear someone claim that such-and-such a pitcher is a "groundball machine" or throws a "heavy sinker," refer them to video of Mr. Webb. At 89-91 mph, his velocity is just average, but his sink is off the charts -- an 80 on the 20-80 scale -- with an almost splitter-like bottom, plus run to boot. He also throws an average curve and a plus changeup that also has a splitter-like tumble to it, commands all three pitches and has plus control. He will, on occasion, leave a fastball up, and that's a hitter's best opportunity to do something other than ground out. How They'll Lose • If Hernandez or Davis is in the No. 2 spot, not only will Arizona be at a disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup, their 'pen will have to soak up innings it's not well-equipped to soak up. • Plenty of starters on postseason rosters boast at least one plus secondary pitch, and if it's got a twist or a wiggle, several Diamondback hitters are going to do walks of shame back to the bench. • As good as the bullpen has been, the main guys have been worked hard, with Tony Pe?a already wearing down, and Jose Valverde is a bit erratic (like Francisco Rodriguez, for example) even when he's rested. And while Micah Owings has just average stuff on the mound -- an 88-91 mph fastball, an 82-83 mph slider with early break and a changeup he rarely uses -- he commands everything to both sides of the plate, and he's a hidden weapon because he can hit. He has a strong, full swing, centers the ball well, shows some plate discipline and can adjust to soft stuff away. Having him on the playoff roster gives Arizona another pinch-hitting option off the bench, and it's almost like having a designated hitter when he's in the lineup. The Diamondbacks don't have a strong offense, but it's a flexible one for platoons and pinch-hitting situations. With Justin Upton and Jeff Salazar sharing duties in right, Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder platooning behind the plate, and switch-hitters Tony Clark and Alberto Callaspo, manager Bob Melvin has plenty of options to try to gain the upper hand in left-right matchups. Weaknesses Arizona ranks 14th in the NL in runs scored, with good reason. Despite having a ton of talent on its roster, its hitters haven't performed up to expectations, and a major reason why is that so many of these young hitters were not ready for the majors when they first got there. The Diamondbacks' typical lineup is a collection of big hacks, and you don't see a lot of adjustments to offspeed stuff. Chris Young crushes balls he can center, but his swing is long, he's very pull-oriented and he doesn't recognize breaking balls. He jumps all over first-pitch fastballs, and teams will figure that one out quickly. Mark Reynolds chases breaking balls low and away, sliders in on his hands, fastballs up above the zone and breaking balls down and in, which doesn't leave much else. He will crush hanging breaking balls and fastballs in the zone, but you can beat him soft away because he won't take those pitches to right. Snyder is a dead fastball hitter and will go after breaking balls in the dirt -- and so on. As a result, they are not a hard team to pitch to, since their weaknesses as hitters are obvious and they don't draw a lot of walks. Question Marks • Can anyone in this lineup lay off the slider low and away? • Can they put up enough runs against the better pitching they'll see in a short postseason series? • Can Doug Davis and/or Livan Hernandez shut down a good offense, especially with one of them likely working as the Snakes' No. 2 starter? The best swing in the lineup -- other than Owings' on days he pitches -- is Stephen Drew's, but right now, he's not strong enough to drive good stuff to right field, and his approach doesn't include taking those balls to left-center often enough. Upton is a potential star and can drive a ball out with the best of them, but in a late-September look, he seemed tired and wasn't catching up to harder stuff he would have crushed two months ago. The starting pitchers, other than Webb and Owings, also are cause for concern. Doug Davis has very fringy stuff, living largely off of a low-80s cutter and a pitching plan to work away from contact. He constantly is behind hitters, and he always is among the league leaders in walks. Livan Hernandez's fastball also is well-below average, running 80-84 mph, and he uses a big, slow curve around 60-62 mph that might succeed because it's below hitting speed. He has control and a feel for pitching that Davis lacks, but his stuff leaves him zero margin for error, and better offenses will feast on him if he's not pinpoint.
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Keith Law's scouting report. Enjoy. Last winter's spending spree paid off for the Cubs, at least in the short term, although it took just about every penny of their $300 million spent to win the 83-plus games required to take the National League Central title. The piper may come soon to collect payment on those deals, but for now, the North Siders are in the dance. The Cubs bring the most balanced team to the playoffs among the four NL participants, but they don't have any major area of strength. Playing in the majors' worst division, they posted the league's second-best ERA, but that reflects the terrible offenses their pitchers faced in nearly half their innings. Chicago's out-of-division ERA was 4.34, which is just a touch better than the overall NL average of 4.42. The Cubs' offense was also decidedly middle-of-the-road, finishing eighth in runs scored. Strengths The Cubs' middle relief corps has been a big part of the team's success this year, starting with the revelation of Carlos Marmol. At times, he has filled a multiple-inning relief role similar to Mariano Rivera in 1996. Marmol, a converted outfielder, has a pretty rough arm action that relegated him to relief work, but he features an outstanding fastball-slider combination and is effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Against right-handed batters, he'll utilize the run on his 92-93 mph fastball to keep the ball moving away from the hitter, and he'll throw his slider with more tilt to hit the inside corner or to sweep it down and away to make the hitter chase. Against left-handed batters, he runs his fastball in hard on their hands, and lifts his arm angle very slightly to get more depth on his breaking ball. Two caveats with Marmol: he can be wild, and he's been very lucky this year to give up just three home runs (given how flat his fastball is). He'll eventually have to make an adjustment when he gives up a few long balls. Marmol is joined by several other relievers who've been effective despite mediocre control, notably Kerry Wood, who has shown flashes of his old stuff but can take 10 or 12 pitches in the game to get his fastball up to the 93-95 mph range. Once he's there he can pair it with a hard slider that breaks sharply down and away from right-handed batters, and a slowed-down version of the breaking ball that he uses a little more against lefties. The Cubs can also run righties Mike Wuertz (fastball-slider guy who's effective against hitters from both sides) and Bobby Howry (who pounds the strike zone but doesn't have an effective secondary pitch) out there in the middle innings to get the ball to Marmol. How They'll Win • Solid starting pitching handing leads to the strong middle relief corps, with Lou Piniella letting Carlos Marmol get six outs if need be. • Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee push runs across on home runs. • Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly both bring their A-games, with Zambrano mixing up his pitches a little more and throwing strikes while Lilly brings the good feel he shows in his best starts. The Cubs are a solid defensive club as well; their lineup includes one of the best defensive first basemen in the game in Derrek Lee, and average or slightly above-average fielders at third base, shortstop (when it's Ryan Theriot) and left field. They've also been playing Jacque Jones in center field; he's the second-best defensive outfielder on the roster behind rookie Felix Pie, but since Pie didn't hit in a small trial earlier this year, he's not likely to be on the postseason roster. They've also upgraded behind the plate by benching Jason Kendall (who can no longer hit, run, catch, or throw) and playing Geovany Soto, who's hit everywhere he's played and is capable enough behind the plate. Chicago's front three starters are solid, even if they don't have the top-of-the-rotation ace that Arizona and Philadelphia can boast. Carlos Zambrano is paid like an ace and is treated like an ace, but he's more of a durable innings-eater whose wildness and erratic fastball command hold his value down. Zambrano works with an old-school approach, establishing his 90-94 mph fastball early, dialing up and down as the situation requires (he'll touch 95 when he's going for a strikeout). His slider has good tilt and he'll use it against hitters on both sides, especially to put it under a lefty's hands, but he doesn't use it all that often, and his split-change only shows up a few times a game. How They'll Lose • An opposing pitcher with good command exploits the Cubs' impatience and keeps them behind in the count all day. • Ryan Dempster coughs it up in the ninth by walking a batter or two and getting himself into a jam he can't get out of. • The bad Carlos Zambrano (walking too many men and overusing his fastball) and/or the bad Ted Lilly (behind hitters, overusing an offspeed pitch he doesn't have that particular day) can put the Cubs out of a game early, overtaxing the bullpen as well. Behind Zambrano are two guys who use their off-speed pitches all the time. Ted Lilly is a four-pitch lefty who, on good nights, will show an average fastball, plus curveball, plus changeup and an average slider. He's got a lot of deception in his delivery, and that combined with his willingness to throw any pitch makes it tough for hitters to adjust to him. His feel for his stuff isn't always good, however. So on some nights he'll only have one or two pitches working, or he won't have his usual average command -- easy to get away with when you're facing the Pirates or Astros in July, but not as much so when you're facing a playoff team in October. Rich Hill is a left-handed curveball specialist; he throws a sharp 12-to-6 breaking ball at 73-75 mph, but cuts it a little to get some slider-like tilt up near 80 mph. His fastball touches average at 87-92 but has zero downhill plane, and he doesn't have the command to get away with it in the upper half of the zone, meaning he's very prone to the long ball. Because of his out-pitch curve and his plus control, Hill has been able to work around the home runs. Weaknesses The Cubs' hitters do not take pitches, do not walk and don't get on base enough. Only Lee has plus plate discipline, working the count and trying to get to a pitch he can drive. Alfonso Soriano, Jones and Craig Monroe are all up there to take their hacks, while Theriot seems to be guessing -- and guessing wrong -- in most of his at-bats. Mark DeRosa is second on the team in walks, but he's always looking fastball and can be beaten by a pitcher who comes hard in and then expands the zone with off-speed stuff. Their two most patient hitters after Lee are Cliff Floyd, who can barely run or play defense, and Matt Murton, who has been in manager Lou Piniella's doghouse for being too patient, too young or too redheaded. Lee, meanwhile, has his own troubles. In a normal season he's one of the five best hitters in the league, but until September of this year, his power wasn't anywhere near what he's capable of showing. He's squaring balls up just like he usually does, but Lee wasn't driving the ball as recently as the final week of August. It might have been the lingering effects of last year's broken wrist, but if his seven-homer September is just a small sample size fluke, then the most dangerous hitter in Chicago's lineup will be somewhat neutralized. In fact, the team as a whole hasn't hit for the kind of home run power it was expected to -- the Cubs have hit fewer homers than any other NL playoff team -- and only Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and a healthy Lee have plus power in this lineup. Question Marks • With little patience and not much power in their lineup, can the Cubs score enough runs against better playoff pitching to win? • Will the Cubs actually let Jason Marquis start a pivotal game in the playoffs? And if so, is Lou Piniella prepared to show a very quick hook and let the bullpen try to save the game? • Speaking of quick hooks, how much rope will Piniella give Ryan Dempster to hang the Cubs? As good as the Cubs' middle relief staff is, Ryan Dempster has the potential to mess it all up in the ninth inning. It's not a question of stuff -- Dempster will show a solid-average fastball and a plus slider -- but his control is below average, not exactly what you want in a guy who's handed one-run leads with three outs to go. After all these years in the majors, he's still just a thrower with limited feel for pitching and has too much of a tendency to put men on base. Against better lineups in the playoffs, he's going to cause some heartburn. The Cubs are also reaching a bit in putting their faith in Jason Marquis in the fourth spot in their playoff rotation. Marquis started off well this year, but has reverted to form, with a 5.31 ERA since June 1. They don't have a great alternative -- Sean Marshall has fringy stuff and Steve Trachsel is awful -- but using Marquis in a potential elimination game in the Division Series is a huge risk.
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October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Lackey got lucky to get out of that inning with just one run. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
You know what's funny? I'm watching Ortiz hit, and I don't have that gut wrenching feeling in my stomach. Oh...that's because the Yankees aren't pitching. LOL! -
Gordon should have been shot. Executed on the spot.
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October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Dammit. Beckett got out of it. s***. -
October 3rd vs. Anaheim: ALDS Game 1
Gom replied to schillingouttheks's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Game time minus nine minutes...lol. -
Gordon, 2004 ALCS MVP...for the Red Sox.

