One thing is for sure, this is gonna be quite an offseason. Papelbon is a unique situation. He wants to test the market, and if you look at the big markets, most have elite closers. NYY with Rivera, NYM with KRod, LAD with Broxton, etc. Chicago will probably be rebuilding. The only team that I think would be a match is LAA. And a Paps deal very well could be about money. Paps is gonna ask for Rivera money in arbitration, the sox might think that $15 million is better allocated elsewhere and will get 75 cents on the dollar in moving him. One thing is for sure, it will not be as big of a market as the sox would have hoped, and they might be better off just to pay him for one more yr, offer him arb after 2011 and take the two picks when he signs a 3 yr 45 mil contract.
The only thing Theo might be looking at is the possibility that Papelbon regresses for a third straight yr. At that point, his salary and trade value wont match