I agree with pretty much everything you said here except for the part where you said the Cards are a playoff lock.
The Cardinals are a great ballclub, no questioning that. I just don't know about this year. The team is aging a little bit. They'll probably have trouble staying healthy as they did last year. They have basically missed out on every target they had this offseason, and have lost several key components. (Grudzielanek, Sanders, Walker, Nunez, etc.)
Also, in their division they have a 2005 world series participant that beat them in the NLCS. Houston now knows that they can beat St. Louis. Also in their division are the Cubs, who have improved this offseason, and I don't expect Mark Prior to be hit with another liner. Yet another strong team in their division is Milwaukee, a team on the upswing. I know St. Louis has their big guns, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Mulder...I just don't know about this year.
They will undoubtedly be competitive, but I wouldn't say they're a lock.