a700hitter
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Everything posted by a700hitter
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Like I said before, statheads are just humorless.
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Just my opinion, but when your prime earning years end at age 35, you should maximize your earnings. He is not in the economic strata of an ARod. Richer players than Dempster have lost everything in bad investments. He has very limited earning ability going forward.
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And your conclusion is that they asked him to retire and give up $13 million.
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Prediction: Sale strikes out 13 tonight and wins 3-2.
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That is true. Maybe the only interesting story that I read about Jeter was about his practice of giving goodie bags of memorabilia and jewelry to his one night stands. One time he did a repeat without realizing it and the girl was upset because she got the same standard goodie bag. She had doubles of everything.
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His wife, kids and family probably think he is a gigantic ******* for walking away from $13 million.
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This was such an obvious solution that I can't believe that no one has thought of it until now.
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Statheads will not allow fun. This is serious business. We sign a Cy Young winner and they cringe about the contract and the payroll. We trade prospects for the best pitcher in the game with a well below market salary and they agonize about the raping of the farm system and the coming cliff in 2020-21. No, there shall be no fun... no enjoyment, except on draft day.
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And math and probability were not invented with Bill James. Managers knew math and probability. Most so-called "traditional" notions commonly referred to "the book" were built around maximizing probabilities. Also, OBP was not invented recently. Managers and baseball people knew the value of OBP in evaluating players. Free swinging was a criticism of Dominican players going back 50 years. The old saying was that you had to hit your way off the island. You couldn't walk off the island. The difference between the managers in Williams' days and today is that there is more data today and computer programs to do the math. In Williams' day, the managers had to do the math in their heads. Then like now, managers weren't too smart so that is why they had the "book". It was easy to learn and master and helped them maximize probabilities.
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I think this stat is barking up the wrong tree. The #3 spot comes up with 2 out and no one on more than any other spot in the lineup, because it is the #3 hitter in an inning more than any other spot in the order. Automatically, at the beginning of the game, they come up as the 3rd batter. Does the #3 spot on this Red Sox team come to bat with more men on base than the first spot. That is the key metric, not this nonsense about batting with 2 out and no one on base.
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He is from back in the day when players were interesting personalities and not cookie-cutter clones schooled to give canned answers to every question. I enjoy reading and hearing about eccentric players. Guys like Derek Jeter played for 20 years and the amount of interesting stories about him could fill a sentence.
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Set him free on the buffet line and let him eat himself into baseball oblivion.
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It was a nice streak. You can't win them all.
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A very poor decision by Theo.
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The Astros lineup is stacked. Their bottom of the order is significantly better than the Red Sox bottom of the order. There is no comparison. The Astros are one of those teams where you could pull the lineup from a hat. The bottom of the order for the Yankees is also significantly better than the Red Sox. No comparison there on OBP. And their best OBP guy (by far) Judge does not bat lead off. Girardi is a numbers guy first and foremost --- not a traditionalist.
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I have a massive amount of grey matter.
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If you have 3 guys with approximately the same OBP but one of the 3 has HR power that stands out from the other 2, in what order would you bat them?
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There assumptions have to be wrong in this instance, because there is no way that the conclusion fits this current lineup. The numbers are pretty straight forward as to the additional base runners that Betts would see batting behind XB and Pedroia, unless you are a Math -denier.
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And there is a study confirming that too.
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I hope that he doesn't start playing like Braun or I will be very upset that we traded him.
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The OBP of our bottom of the order guys, i.e. Marrero, Pablo, Rutledge, Leon and Vasquez is not even close to .325, and the difference in combined OBP for XB and Pedroia is about 80-90 points higher than the bottom of the order.
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I don't think that the stat geeks are factoring in that the bottom of our order will stay this bad. I don't think they are factoring in an 80-90 point differential from the bottom of the order and the top of the order. You are a math geek. Crunch the numbers. That is a huge difference that would translate to many more men on base for Mookie.
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It is not just how good that Pedroia and XB are at getting on base, but couple that with how bad the bottom of our order is and Betts is missing a lot of opportunities with men on base. The OBP of the likes of Marrero, Pablo, Rutledge, Leon and Vasquez are atrocious. XB and Pedroia have an OBP that is approximately 80-90 points more than the bottom of the order slugs. That translates into lots of extra base runners.
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Winning is the biggest cureall for even the dumbest of managers.
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Not at all thinking traditionally. Betts batting leadoff would be fine if we had lineups from past years that were strong 1 through 9, but that is not the case this year. If he bats 3rd, he will lose very few ABs, so we will still be maximizing his PAs. However, the guy's batting in front of him get on base at a very low rate so that diminishes his opportunities to do run producing damage. I think if you bat him behind Pedroia and XB his opportunities to produce runs will increase tremendously. It has nothing to do with traditional thinking, but probabilities and math.
