a700hitter
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Everything posted by a700hitter
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What is wrong with the human bean bag now. I have lost track of him. I don't think he factors into any plans. You don't disappear from your teams plans because you have an earache.
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Pomeranz is a big part of this team's rotation. We are rolling out a legitimately good starter every 5th day in the 4/5 hole at the cost of $4 million/year. Unless Espi becomes Pedro, this trade didn't mortgage our future, it helped builf the present and the future. This guy is not the tomato can that most teams have in their 4/5 slots. He is a good pitcher.
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We had a cliff before 2013 and a bigger one after 2013, and it felt like a cliff --no meaningful baseball after July in 3 seasons. That was the worst stretch of futility in my lifetime.
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I didn't disregard the value of prospects, because they were not in the scope of the discussion. The discussion centered around the market value of major league arms. I don't see any of this discussion as being relevant to prospects in the minors. That is a whole different type of market as it involves exponentially more imprecision regarding level of performance and ceilings. I don't disagree, but was just noting that the exercise/non-exercise of the opt out clause would not have positive financial effect for the Red Sox if it sought to replace him in the rotation. Redeployment of assets for hitting is a different issue, and I did acknowledge that.
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Walking away from a healthy contract for less money? Who has done that?
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There would be a much better chance that the Red Sox could inadvertently benefit from Price opting out if he had no known elbow issue and was younger. Any fall off in performance due to injury would be more unexpected and would not have been heavily factored into his market value. However, Price's elbow issue is known and his age will be mid 30's. These factors will weigh heavily on his marketability. If he can opt out under those conditions and get more than $31 million a year, that would mean to me that the market for younger healthier pitchers would be through the roof. So, even if he signs somewhere else and his arm falls off, it isn't going to help the Red Sox much as his replacement is likely going to cost more than what Price gets, and the new guy's arm can also explode.
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This is a lot of research for an issue that has nothing to do with the point that we are discussing-- opt out clauses and who they benefit.
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That could happen with any player as could an injury. How they perform after signing has no bearing on their market value when they sign. You hope you get what you paid for. Whether or not a signing ends up being good or bad has nothing to do with what I am saying. All that I am saying is that the opt out clause is a provision for the player to maximize his value. It can't benefit the club. For Price to opt out of his Red Sox contract with his age and elbow issue, it would have to be that the market for pitching is sky high. That would benefit Price, not the Red Sox as a replacement would likely cost much more than what we were paying him. If his age and elbow issue are such that he is not worth $30 million/yr, the Red Sox will have the privilege of paying the remainder of his contract.
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And the Pujols signing may be on the high end of the spectrum and maybe the Angels were negotiating against themselves so it isn't a very good gauge for market value, it still has an influence on market value for future contracts. Most big long term contracts seem overvalued, but by the end of the term they no longer seem so outrageous, and many seem very reasonable but they all influence market value -- just like comparable sales in real estate-- the highest sale doesn't establish the market, but it does influence the market.
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Did Pujols have an opt out clause that was exercised?
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You just don't get it. Believe what you want to believe regardless of the laws of economics and the market place.
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Did I say that or any thing approaching that? Giggling.
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The Free Agent market both reflects and contributes to establishing market value. It is not the only data that establishes market value. As I said earlier, other contemporaneous non free agent contracts would also be taken into account. Market value is fluid, but it is established by what "Clown GMs" are willing to pay for certain assets. That is real market value. Any other measure is a fiction in one or more aspects. If you think an opt out clause is meant to benefit anyone other than the party with the option, you are mistaken. It is designed to benefit only the player.
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The market isn't set by one 34 year old pitcher or one clown GM that offers him $31 million/ year.
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"You gotta have somethin."
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If we benefit from him leaving , it will be for a reason other than market value. It might be because we have enough starting pitching and need hitting or because Price is a toxic clubhouse personality, but the team will not be benefiting from a value perspective. From a preference standpoint, it might be desireable for you to move on from Price, but there is no corresponding value benefit.
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Whether you would prefer to move on from Price has no relation to the fact that the opt out clause operates in fact (not in theory) to maximize value for the player in the marketplace. It doesn't benefit the Red Sox value-wise whether or not it is exercised.
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It is not just his contract but other contemporaneous contracts for starting pitchers that establish the market. Unfortunately, it is the GMs (who I hold in low regard) who establish the real market. Edit: whether or not Price earns his contract has nothing to do with his market value at the time he hits the market. Past failed contracts (due to age or injury) should be factored into the current market.
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The FA market and current contracts are not the best market. They are the only market.
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What happens after the opt out is irrelevant. At the time of the opt out, Price will only leave if he is worth more on the open market. If he stays, it mean that we are over paying. If he leaves, it means we are losing a good deal. It is pretty straightforward.
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The Yankees bid against themselves. We will never know what his market was, because the Yankees refused to part with him.
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And we lived through that cliff despite not selling the future.
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Age and probability of injury would get factored into his market value, so that is right, it never would it work to our advantage in the open market. If he gets injured, that is happenstance, no different than the young stud getting injured.
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If the market rises sharply, the Red Sox would not have the opportunity to continue to pay Price $31 million. He will opt out. Somehow you think that this opt out clause can benefit the Red Sox. It cannot. If Price is worth more than $31 million he will leave and the Red Sox will have to pay more to replace him. If he is worthless than $31 million, the Red Sox will be stuck paying his contract. It is a clause for the benefit of Price. It will never benefit the Red Sox.
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Which is the point that I made initially to which you responded. If Price opts out, the Red Sox will have to pay the same amount or more to get a guy that may not be even as good as Price.
