a700hitter

While the Marlins do have more good young players than the Cubs, you are overstating the extent of it. Josh Johnson has had severe arm troubles over the last several seasons and there really is no reason to believe that he is a better bet to bounce back to good health and performance than Zambrano. Garza is the same age and better and more accomplished than Anibel Sanchez. Nolasco has been a disappointment. In 5+ seasons, he has had 1 season with a sub 4.50 ERA. The Cubs also have a hot young star at shortstop in Castro. Sean Marshall was one of the best lefty set up guys in the game. What has been very different is the two team approaches to the off season.

Bard, Papelbon, and Aceves leaving the bullpen is a huge change, and I am not convinced that Cherington has filled that huge hole. I am also very concerned that our starting pitching is thin and not in any way improved over last season.

Am I a Valentine fan? No, I am not. I think he is a different type of manager than Francona and certainly a better game tactician. Others think he will cause problems in the clubhouse. Eventually, that is a good possibility, but it will probably take 2 or 3 years. Would Valentine have made the difference last year? Very possibly he might have made the difference, but 2012 is not last season. I don't think our 2012 team as presently constructed is as good as the 2011 team. Any improvement with Valentine and the coaching staff may not be enough in 2012.

I posted this earlier in the thread, but saw little comment about it: How have these moves improved the team over last year's team that finished 3rd in the AL East. I think we are worse from a personnel standpoint. I don't understand the certainty that the 2012 Sox will end up with a better record than the 2011 team. They argue that it was the best team from May through August and that they will not start and end so bad. Maybe they don't start or end as bad, but why are they so certain they will play at the level they did from May through August. A 162 season evens things out. If you bring back a team that is not as good as last year, I don't think it is reasonable to expect a better result.

With 1 month to go before pitchers and catchers have to report to Fort Myers let's do a little recap of our off season. We've lost Papelbon, Lowrie and Reddick. We lost Lackey to surgery. We've picked up Melancon, Bailey, Sweeney, Punto and Shoppach.. Have I missed anything worth mentioning? This should really close the gap with the Yanks. Bravo so far Benny Boy! Bravo! I continue to hold out hope, but it is starting to wane.

He's so bad that the Mets got rid of him.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/red-sox-acquire-brad-emaus.html ^ Benny Boy must have crunched the numbers for days before pulling the trigger on this deal.

I'm having fun. :harhar:

Don't lower yourself to his level. He'll get himself banned on his own. I predicted that the day I put him on ignore. For selfish reasons, I hope he doesn't get banned, because he always comes back with a new identity. If he stays, I don't have to ID him in the future.

Oh this is you laughing at me again? Isn't that kind of mean humor something that schoolyard bullies engage in?

^ This is quite funny. Is ORS saying that iortiz and me are the same poster, and that when I am posting as iortiz, I use a Spanish accent, or is he saying that iortiz uses a Brooklyn accent when he posts as me? Very funny. I am laughing at you on this especially because you did not intend it in any humor.

The Marlins and Cubs had almost identical records in 2011. Their approaches to the off season have been starkly different. You have termed the Cubs approach as a rebuild. What would you call the marlins approach? And does a GM abandon money ball philosophy in one and not the other. You said in an earlier post that Theo would be employing an analysis to his moves where he is looking for undervalued assets. The fact that he has not made any big acquisitions to improve his team is probably indicative of the fact that he didn't see any good values available. Certainly, if he did, he would have acted on them. Ridding the team of bad contracts doesn't preclude also making value acquisitions during the same off season... does it? You have been telling me for years that Theo walks on water, but now he can't walk and chew gum at the same time? He can't divest assets and acquire assets during the same off season? Of course he can. He just has not seen value assets under his philosophy so he hasn't made any acquisitions. The Marlins did not wait for undervalued assets to hit the market. They paid full fair market value (some would argue that they paid above market value) to make acquisitions to improve the team to bring the fans into the new stadium. They didn't have the luxury of waiting like Theo thinks he does.

iortiz asked some very specific questions of you and E1 about Money Ball. In response the two of you talked out of both sides of your mouth and through your hat at the same time. The answers you gave him were a mass of contradictions.

^ An early but strong candidate for POTY 2012. This is a great post.

It was irrelevant to his observation that the Cubs might be worse in 2012 than 2011, but saying that Theo is a moneyball GM was not inaccurate although it wasn't relevant. He was criticizing Theo's moves, not moneyball.

Big $ capital gain taxable at a rate that is likely to go up after 2012.

You are not the only one who isn't sure. However, as E1 said, Theo will analyze all moves looking for under-valued assets. I guess he didn't find any this off season so he just took the trash to the curb. Unless he does something before the season starts, the 2012 Cubs might actually be worse than the 2011 Cubs. I thought that would be hard to do, but he might accomplish it. Contrast the Cubs' off season with the Marlins' off season. They had almost identical records in 2011. The Marlins made number of big key acquisitions that were fair market value (as opposed to undervalued) acquisitions. They signed Reyes, Buehrle, and Heath Bell. They made a strong run at Pujols. They should be an interesting and exciting team to watch in 2012. They didn't follow a Moneyball approach. It looks like Theo has stayed true to his Moneyball philosophy even though he had a ton of money to spend. He could have made some key FMV moves to improve the Cubs, but he didn't. Your usage of "Moneyball" in your original post was right on the money. Theo is a moneyballer. He has stayed true to his philosophy. He found no undervalued assets in the FA market, so he has chosen to do nothing up to this point. They should stink as a result of his doing nothing. The Marlins should be greatly improved in contrast.

Nothing in this post has any relevance going forward. Teams have collapsed 2 years in a row in September. You need look no further than the 2007 and 2008 Mets that missed the playoffs on the final game each season. There's no basis to say that it won't happen again or that the team will not start poorly. There is also no basis to assume that the Sox will be the best team in the AL for any stretch of 2012. These patterns don't carry over from year to year. Right now, the Sox are not as good going into 2012 as they were in mid season 2011 or at the end of 2011. Other teams like the Angels and Rangers have improved. You have a lot of hope, and so do I, but right now we have little reason to believe that 2012 will be a successful season. If they get a starting pitcher (not named Saunders) that will be a big help. We need to fill out the bullpen and get a RH outfielder too.