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    Where Should Rafael Devers Play?


    Nick John

    With Rafael Devers sidelined to start spring training, Red Sox fans may not know what the "regular" infield makeup will be until Opening Day. 

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    Spring Training games have begun and with it came the debate over where certain players should play for the Boston Red Sox. The most prominent being where Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers will play. Devers will be entering his age-28 season, the third since signing his franchise record 11-year, $331 million contract. The deal will keep him in Boston through the 2033 season and created the assumption at the time that Devers would be the starting third baseman for the foreseeable future. That has changed with the signing of Alex Bregman.

    All offseason, it was stated that Bregman would be the starting second baseman if he signed with Boston. You had Alex Cora stating that he envisioned Bregman as a Gold Glove second baseman. But now with spring training in full swing, there’s been a debate as to where Devers and Bregman will play and what would be best for the team in the long run. Fans would argue that the best lineup for the Red Sox would be Devers at designated hitter, Bregman playing third base and top prospect Kristian Campbell making the team as the starting second baseman. Defensively this makes the most sense, Bregman is already a Gold Glove defender at third, having won the award this past season while Devers is considered one of the worst defensive third basemen in the game. Last season alone, Devers recorded a minus-6 Outs Above Average. To put that in perspective, that was tied for 36th out of the 43 qualified third basemen last season. Since 2020, Devers has compiled a minus-34 Outs Above Average, ranking as the worst among all qualified third basemen in that span. And despite that, Devers wants to stay at third base. While talking to the media back on February 17th, Devers was asked if he was willing to move off third base to allow new teammate Alex Bregman, his response was simple and he repeated it often.

    “No. I play third.”

    This single quote and its repetition by Devers has led to a division among Red Sox fans, some believing that Devers should give up the position and move to being a designated hitter to both preserve his body and to allow the Red Sox to field their best defensive lineup. However, others have pointed out that if Devers quickly relinquished the position he would have been viewed as lazy or ready to just hit now that he has signed his contract. And while even ignoring Devers’ defensive woes, it may not be in the best interest of the team to make Devers a permanent designated hitter.

    The thought would be that the team would be best with Devers at designated hitter, Bregman as the starting third baseman and top prospect Campbell as the starting second baseman, however, that belief has a few issues. The first would be that Campbell is an unproven rookie. Yes, he vaulted up the prospect rankings last season and finished the year in triple-A Worcester, but as shown from the early games of spring training he’s still a young player who’s learning. The second issue would be the benching of current designated hitter Masataka Yoshida.

    The left-handed hitter was moved from left field to designated hitter heading into the 2024 season, much to his displeasure. And despite putting up with injuries across the season he still managed to slash a decent .280/.349/.415 with 10 home runs and 56 runs batted in despite dealing with thumb and shoulder injuries. The latter resulted in offseason surgery. If Devers is the new designated hitter, Yoshida would be without a position as the outfield is filled and his bat is too valuable to lose, especially if he’s fully healthy this season. While his numbers may not jump out at you, Yoshida’s OPS+ was 112, putting him as a slightly above average hitter. Add to it his incredibly low whiff and strikeout percentages and he’s a rather valuable member of the lineup when it comes to putting the ball in play.

    The third and final dilemma is the fact that many players perform worse as the designated hitter. There's a even a name for this phenomenon: The Designated Hitter Penalty. For many players, they need the time in the field to keep them in rhythm when they finally get up to bat. It gives them a chance to think about other aspects of the game besides just hitting and allows them to move on from a poor at-bat. Doing nothing but hitting and then sitting in the dugout thinking about your next at-bat while your teammates field can be mentally draining for players, especially ones like Devers, who have never played anything but one position, and clearly want to remain there. To be a truly great designated hitter you need to be mentally strong and be able to handle the tolls of slumps, otherwise they might drag themselves down and into a longer rut. 

    Not everyone is a David Ortiz or Edgar Martinez who can just slot in as a designated hitter and handle it without issues. Even with the Red Sox they have had players in the past wish to play the field. Probably the most prominent duo being J.D .Martinez and Masataka Yoshida. Martinez signed with the Red Sox in 2018 and helped them win the World Series that season, but before that had shown some desire to remain in the outfield and not just hit. He was at a similar point in his career as Devers is now, just two years older than Devers is, Martinez wanted to play the field. His exact reason at the time when asked about wanting to play the outfield was “because I’m 30 years old”. 

    Likewise, Martinez had an interesting split when he played the field vs when he didn’t in 2018. As the Red Sox outfield was loaded with young, homegrown stars Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts, Martinez only played the outfield in 57 games that season. However, his bat exploded when he played in the field. In 57 games played in the outfield, Martinez managed to hit .383 in 219 at bats and got on base at a .450 clip. In 93 games as the designated hitter Martinez had 350 at-bats and saw his average drop to .297 and his on base percentage also drop to .373. His power was more prevalent while being the designated hitter, hitting 27 of them compared to 16 while playing in the outfield. Overall though, it shows just how playing in the field kept Martinez locked in. It’s been the same for his entire career, as between playing as the left fielder, right fielder or designated hitter, Martinez’s numbers have been lowest while playing as the designated hitter.

    Yoshida is a similar case when you compare his stats based on his position. In 86 career games in left field, Yoshida has slashed .308/.350/.480 with 12 home runs and 60 runs batted in. He also struck out only 41 times in that span totaling 344 at-bats. As a designated hitter, however, those numbers drop. In 150 games as the designated hitter, Yoshida saw his numbers drop to a stat line of .273/.338/.407 along with 13 home runs and 68 runs batted in across 560 at-bats.

    It's yet to be seen if Devers is someone who could handle the mounting pressure of being the team’s designated hitter, especially with calls for him to give up his starting position at third base. Based on a small sample size from last season when he was hurt, Devers hit rather well. But his line of .353/.371/.618 was only across eight games, not a large enough sample size to give us an idea of how he would do across a full season. If the Red Sox and Devers decide it’s best for the team for him to slide off of third base, I feel the best-case scenario for him would be similar to how they handled J.D. Martinez in 2018: play roughly a third of his games in the field to give him a break from the mental strains of being the designated hitter. Despite the defensive woes that Devers has at times, it would be best for the team in the long run to allow him time on the field, time to clear his head and give him a chance to reset at the plate by focusing on his defense. 

    Though this question has been a thing since the start of spring training, this issue is a good one. The fact that we’re arguing over where multiple all-star players should play is something we haven’t been able to do for a few years now. Wherever Devers and Bregman end up playing, one thing is for certain: this team will be enjoyable to watch.

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    3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    The guys who calculate these things calculated that the present value of Bregman's deal is 95 million, not 120 million.  That's 25 million dollars difference.  That's a plain, simple, objective fact that you keep trying to dismiss, basically because "he's rich anyway and  he'll get it eventually".   

    And "if he stays healthy" is quite the little qualifier when it comes to a 30+ year old baseball player.

    I guess my overriding point is, if Alex Bregman took the Sox offer primarily based on the premise he would make more money in the long run, it was a very questionable premise, possibly even straight-out dumb.  I don't think he's a dumb guy, and I don't think that was what he was thinking.

     

    But you ignore that $25mill difference, which exists to adjust the Sox luxury tax position.  And good year or bad, at some point Bregman is going to collect that $25mill.

    Of course the larger picture here is the consistent comparison of apples to basketballs.  Sure a deferment lowers Bregman’s 2025 earnings, but are you absolutely positive the Detroit offer had no deferments?  And for the record, “ none that I’ve heard of” is an unacceptable answer, especially since no one really gets into those details until after pen meets paper.  We do know the total value of each deal, and the number of years required to play to earn that money.  Beyond that, what other common ground do we really know?

    2 hours ago, notin said:

    But you ignore that $25mill difference, which exists to adjust the Sox luxury tax position.  And good year or bad, at some point Bregman is going to collect that $25mill.

    Of course the larger picture here is the consistent comparison of apples to basketballs.  Sure a deferment lowers Bregman’s 2025 earnings, but are you absolutely positive the Detroit offer had no deferments?  And for the record, “ none that I’ve heard of” is an unacceptable answer, especially since no one really gets into those details until after pen meets paper.  We do know the total value of each deal, and the number of years required to play to earn that money.  Beyond that, what other common ground do we really know?

    All the stories about the Tigers offer say there was "some deferred money" involved, so you're right about that.

    At the least Bregman is now one of the counterarguments when someone says "they always take the most money".

      

    7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    I could see Bregman signing a very similar deal to the Tigers one, this coming winter, and he’d be making more by doing what he did this winter.

    It's possible, but is it probable, and if so why?  He'll be one more year older.  Do you think next offseason teams are going to be spending more?  And again, why?

     

    34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    It's possible, but is it probable, and if so why?  He'll be one more year older.  Do you think next offseason teams are going to be spending more?  And again, why?

     

    To me, it's more likely he'll be a key contributor and leader to an improved Red Sox club that will fall short of his annual trip to the ALCS... but that he's such a diamond dog he'll be a favorite of both fans and teammates, and will want to return to finish business...

    ... plus, of course, get paid another guaranteed $40 million -- sometime in his life -- not to mention, he and his wife (attending grad school in Cambridge) will fall in love with Boston, and get involved in charities helping underprivileged children abandoned by oligarchs.

    3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    It's possible, but is it probable, and if so why?  He'll be one more year older.  Do you think next offseason teams are going to be spending more?  And again, why?

    Well, with the impending lock-out, I'm not very optimistic he gets the same deal. I just said "He could."

    I think he might have a monster year in 2024. That's about the major thing that could make it happen, IMO. I'm not predicting it or saying it is likely..

     

    1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

    I want 55 homers, 55 doubles, 55 stolen bases, 55 triples, 55 ks, 100 bbs, 100 RBIs, 100 Rs, 100 SFs, 100 IBBs, 55 DP, 55 UZR/150, 55 DRS, 55 OAA, 55 FRV and 155 fWAR. 

    55 homers and only 100 RBI?  So you think he opts out after posting those s***** RISP numbers?

    With Cole out for the year, it would seem to diminish Devers' production...

    ... that is, with Raffy actually playing this season in the majors.

    Opening Day is about two weeks away. If he doesn't see action soon, the answer to the thread question will either be: 1). in Florida, for extended prep; or 2). in Worcester, for live rehab ABs

    The lack of urgency about a supposed contender's missing top hitter all preseason is a mystery. No offseason surgery, no concern among teammates, no skepticism among reporters... is this just Raffy being Manny?

    2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

    With Cole out for the year, it would seem to diminish Devers' production...

    ... that is, with Raffy actually playing this season in the majors.

    Opening Day is about two weeks away. If he doesn't see action soon, the answer to the thread question will either be: 1). in Florida, for extended prep; or 2). in Worcester, for live rehab ABs

    The lack of urgency about a supposed contender's missing top hitter all preseason is a mystery. No offseason surgery, no concern among teammates, no skepticism among reporters... is this just Raffy being Manny?

    Raffy has been in camp for a long while, even before many pitchers. I think his shoulder just isn't ready and they want him close to 100% before they ramp him up. 

    8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    Raffy has been in camp for a long while, even before many pitchers. I think his shoulder just isn't ready and they want him close to 100% before they ramp him up. 

    I think it has been Raffy holding himself back more than the Red Sox. Raffy supposedly went to Cora last week, and said he needed more work in the cage, and more live BP.

    1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

    So, we need to find and obtain one, now? That would show urgency?

    Who said anything about that? My post was just in dismay that nobody seems concerned that our best batter hasn't even had a single at bat in a game yet.

    The Sox have plenty of options in house already. But in a year their president said they're shooting for a championship, some don't think they'll put the best possible line-up on the field because of contract control for players who may not even be in the organization a half a decade from now.

    11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

    Who said anything about that? My post was just in dismay that nobody seems concerned that our best batter hasn't even had a single at bat in a game yet.

    The Sox have plenty of options in house already. But in a year their president said they're shooting for a championship, some don't think they'll put the best possible line-up on the field because of contract control for players who may not even be in the organization a half a decade from now.

    Okay. I took the word "urgency" to mean something needs to be done beyond the lack of visible fretting and talking about concerns.

    13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    Okay. I took the word "urgency" to mean something needs to be done beyond the lack of visible fretting and talking about concerns.

    No prob -- this may not be an issue now, but I guarantee whenever Devers does come back, reporters will be bothering him with questions about whether he stayed away because his feelings were hurt, and even if his translator assures everyone it was just physical, the very next questions will be if Raffy -- after missing all that gametime readiness on defense -- is now ready to accept DHing. 

    For all we know, he may be working out away from reporters just so he doesn't have to deal with them. It would be good to get it over with before the games count though...

    (this is where we need management to step up and say they are so committed to taking care of Raffy that they insisted on keeping him away from the dugout stomach bug)

    1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

    Lack of "urgency" (prob "concern" more accurate to my point, which is:) this lack of urgency/concern might be disingenuous. Very possible some are crapping their pants at Raf turning into a question mark.

    I think it's possible his health is in fact a question mark.  They shut him down in September and he's still not 100%.

    5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    I think it's possible his health is in fact a question mark.  They shut him down in September and he's still not 100%.

    Raffy is facing Crochet, and Buehler in simulated games on Wed, and Thursday, so his shoulders are good enough for that.

    Assuming Devers plays his whole career with the Sox, where does he end up on the alltime Sox HR leader board after 2025 and after his career ends?

    521 Williams

    483 Ortiz

    452 Yaz

    382 Rice

    379 Evans

    274 Manny

    230 Mo

    223 Doer

    222 Foxx

    210 Rico

    200 Devers

    I'll say he ends up 7th after 2025, behind Manny and somewhere around 460 and 3rd on the list.

    This is also the time of year where everything is amplified in the media and teams are overcautious.  

    It's kind of hard to tell at first glance if an injury is bad and concern is warranted or a team is just being cautious.  

    I'd bet there are many times a guy walks into camp feeling a little off, a little sore, where they might play during the regular season but because it's spring training they're just shut down. 

    It's very telling that he's taking BP and plans to play this Saturday, it might just be caution and nothing else.  If he ends up not playing this weekend.....I'd start to be a little bit more concerned. 




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