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    The Red Sox Beat Themselves in the Wild Card Round

    The Yankees didn't truly outplay the Red Sox in the Wild Card Round, but that doesn't change that Boston is the one heading home.

    Alex Mayes
    Image courtesy of The Yankees didn't truly outplay the Red Sox in the Wild Card Round, but that doesn't change that Boston is the one heading home.

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    The 2025 season for the Red Sox has ended not with a bang, but with a whimper. The highs that the team, and the fanbase, were riding after Garrett Crochet’s dominant Game 1 outing were squashed on Wednesday night, and then got grounded into a fine powder under the heel of the Yankees on Thursday. The Wild Card series showed just how thin of a rotation the team finished the season with, and highlighted a few other areas where the team needs to improve as we now turn our attention toward the offseason.

    Instead of going game by game for the series breakdown (our @Nick John already did a fine job of that throughout the series), I want to highlight the positive takeaway, as well as the negatives that ultimately sunk the Red Sox.

    Positive: Garrett Crochet is an ace

    As I wrote earlier this week, Garrett Crochet’s performance in Game 1 should have set the tone for the series. Outside of a badly placed sinker that Anthony Volpe deposited over the wall in right field, Crochet was dominant. He fired 117 pitches, touching triple digits on the last pitch of the night. He walked into the Thunder Dome that was Yankee Stadium and tamed the crowd. In the biggest game of his career, he showed up and showed out. The Red Sox traded for and then extended Crochet for these moments and he rewarded that trust. He is the anchor of this rotation moving forward, but he needs help.

    Negative: Lack of starting pitching depth

    For as dominant as Crochet was in Game 1, Brayan Bello was the complete opposite. We talked on the Game 1 postgame stream how Bello would likely be on a short leash Wednesday night, but no one expected him to only go 2 1/3 innings while giving up four hits and two earned runs with one walk and no strikeouts. Bello had been shaky all of September, but there was hope that his dominance against the Yankees would return when it mattered most. Unfortunately, Ben Rice made sure that Bello wouldn’t be long for the game.

    On the other hand, Connelly Early performed fairly well until the wheels fell off in the fourth inning. On the radio call, Will Flemming correctly stated that every Yankees hitter that stepped to the plate in that inning ‘looked incredibly comfortable’ as they were taking their at-bats. It’s well documented that the Yankees are a league leader in picking up on and communicating tipped pitches, so there’s a chance this could have been occurring. But it’s also just as likely that Early and Carlos Narvaez fell into a predictable pattern as the former’s pitch count began to climb. Early was left in too long, and it came back to bite the Red Sox quickly.

    Either way, the Red Sox needed Early to go more than 3 2/3 innings to have a chance in Game 3. The rookie was charged with three earned runs on the night, but the lack of defense behind him is more to blame for those than he is. His ERA for the game may have been 7.36, but his FIP was an incredible 0.68. Had his defense bailed him out as they were expected to, we may be having a different conversation about this series.

    Negative: Shaky bullpen management in Game 2

    The Red Sox have counted all season on a bullpen anchored by Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock to ensure that they either stayed in or won games. On Tuesday, Chapman put us all on the edges of our seats but ultimately pitched his way out of it. On Wednesday, Alex Cora seemingly hung Whitlock out to dry by allowing him to throw multiple innings. Yes, Whitlock was penciled in as the multi-inning relief option to open the season, but that didn’t work out. For the bulk of the campaign, Whitlock was a one-inning specialist and he should have operated as such in Game 2.

    Also, why go to Payton Tolle after Whitlock when you could have flipped them on the depth chart and had Whitlock follow Tolle? You tasked Whitlock with throwing over 40 pitches but limit Tolle to just seven for the series. This was the hardest that Whitlock had been pushed since 2021, and he hasn’t been truly stretched out to be a multi-inning reliever after he assumed the role of set-up man earlier this season. Tolle has been an effective starter far more recently than Whitlock, so turning to him in that situation would have made more sense. Typically, Alex Cora is the master of pushing all the right buttons in do-or-die situations, but this Game 2 mismanagement was a factor in Early being hung out to dry in Game 3.

    Negative: Lack of heads-up baseball

    So far, we’ve talked a lot about Game 2 because honestly, the series should have ended there. The Yankees didn’t play clean baseball in that contest at all. First, Kyle Hudson’s lack of awareness on the throw from Jazz Chisholm to Ben Rice may be the most egregious error of the game. He immediately throws up the stop sign to Nate Eaton as Eaton rounds third when Masataka Yoshida is diving into first base to beat an errant throw. Jose Flores, from first, is signaling for Eaton to keep running while Hudson is doing the opposite. Sure, a veteran player likely blows through that stop sign and continues to try and score but, in that situation, when there are two outs already on the board, why not send the runner? At worst, Eaton is gunned down at the plate as he’s attempting to score. At best, Rice tries to recover and throw to third as Duran advances, likely throwing the ball away and allowing Duran to score as well. By the way, Rice’s arm strength (per Baseball Savant) is in the first percentile. If the Red Sox kept the same baserunning pressure in Game 2 that they showed in Game 1, the series likely ends on Wednesday night and the team is battling the Toronto Blue Jays right now.

    Additionally, Ceddanne Rafaela’s poor attempt at bunting against a split-finger specialist made zero sense. Of course the ball is going to be weakly popped up right back to the pitcher when Rafaela is throwing the head of the bat at a ball in the opposite batter’s box. Also, the two men on base were the fastest guys on the team. Take your chances with a double steal with no outs over Rafaela attempting to lay down a bunt when he’s been mostly unsuccessful with it during the regular season. Give me a competitive strikeout over that weak pop up; at least it would make the pitcher work harder.

    Finally, Jarren Duran’s defense in left field likely cost the Red Sox the game. Him clanging that fly ball off of his thumb directly led to the run that put the Yankees in a position to secure the win. He then admitted that he’s had trouble getting reads on balls hit to left field all season. If Duran can’t read a fly ball off the bat when it’s hit to him, he doesn’t need to be in the field. Last season, the Red Sox had one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, anchored by both Duran and Rafaela at times. This year, though, Duran has looked lost in left more often than not. It reared its ugly head at the wrong time on Wednesday night.


    The disappointment across Red Sox Nation is palpable, and it’s likely to hang around for the remainder of October. That being said, there’s a lot to look forward to as we turn our attention to the offseason and the improvements that need to be made for 2026 and beyond. This series loss hurts, no question about it, but Game 1 gave us a glimpse of what’s to come in the very near future. As long as improvements are made, expect the Red Sox to be a constant presence in October for years to come.

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    20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    No, but they needed to get a bat after they traded him.

    Like I said in the other thread, 2 egregious errors by Craig - that one and trading Priester for prospects.  

      

    The trades could look better down the line, but they set the 2025 Sox back. Maybe the 2026 Sox too. Hard to say right now. 

    31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    The errors hurt but I'm not really buying that they're the reason we're out. Because it's baseball and therefore you can often find multiple explanations.  We scored 6 runs in 3 games - our offense was feeble without Anthony.  And Bello's crappy start didn't help.  

    And even if we did win this series, we were in pretty bad shape without Anthony and Giolito.

    We were a pretty good team but we were THIN.  Losing a guy like Anthony is crushing when you're that thin.  

    I'm just bitter they blew it to the Yankees. If the Sox had gone to Cleveland and got swept instead, none of us would've been surprised, but the ending would have been more positive for even making the playoffs with a ragtag MASH unit.

    Where I live I've been hearing a lot of crap from Yankee fans, who delude themselves into thinking their club is better than it actually is after knocking off a shell of a contender that had owned them in the summer. How's that working out vs. Toronto...

    Like I said before, Boston had bad karma coming in, from setting up the team to lose that last regular season game by pitching a minor leaguer with an 0-9 record and 7 ERA. We all know almost every team that has clinched uses the last game as a tune-up to be shared for the actual pitching staff, giving starters "bullpen" innings, and relievers 3-batter minimums to stay sharp. The alternative choice was suspicious.

    Detroit deserves to lose in the playoffs, too, since they also went through the motions that last day... because both the Tigers and Sox wanted to face the weak-hitting Guardians, and nobody wanted to go the Bronx for three games vs. the Bombers. So let's go, Mariners!

    57 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    What about the advanced defensive stats, how did we end up there?

    Yup. Now, even MVP is using errors (fldg% is about the same.)

    2023 to 2025 DRS Rankings (90 entries: 30 teams x 3 seasons)

    13. BOS 2024

    32. BOS 2025

    71. BOS 2023

    OAA

    28. BOS +11 in 2025

    71. BOS -18 in 2024

    89. BOS -51 in 2023 (a +62 turnaround in 2 seasons.)

    Fangraph's rankings:

    14th 2025 Sox

    70th 2024 Sox

    88th 2023 Sox (a remarkable improvement from third worst to top 15 from 3 seasons, which is like top 5 per 30 teams.)

     

     

    1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    The errors hurt but I'm not really buying that they're the reason we're out. Because it's baseball and therefore you can often find multiple explanations.  We scored 6 runs in 3 games - our offense was feeble without Anthony.  And Bello's crappy start didn't help.  

    And even if we did win this series, we were in pretty bad shape without Anthony and Giolito.

    We were a pretty good team but we were THIN.  Losing a guy like Anthony is crushing when you're that thin.  

    If the Butterfly Man in LF catches that ball in LF could game 2 been a different outcome? If Eaton scores from 3rd base could game 2 been a different outcome? That’s all I’m sayin. Yes they only Red Sox scored only 6 runs, but they still could have won game 2. You play with what you have. Rice was out in 75, and the Red Sox still could have won without him. Losing Anthony, and Gio hurt, but they still could have won without them. That’s all I saying.

    7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

    If the Butterfly Man in LF catches that ball in LF could game 2 been a different outcome? If Eaton scores from 3rd base could game 2 been a different outcome? That’s all I’m sayin. Yes they only Red Sox scored only 6 runs, but they still could have won game 2. You play with what you have. Rice was out in 75, and the Red Sox still could have won without him. Losing Anthony, and Gio hurt, but they still could have won without them. That’s all I saying.

    I'm not criticizing what you're saying.  I get it, in close games any little physical or mental blunder can make the difference.  And when you lose those things get magnified bigly.  

    10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    I'm not criticizing what you're saying.  I get it, in close games any little physical or mental blunder can make the difference.  And when you lose those things get magnified bigly.  

    The Yankees made blunders, too.  In no way should Sogard have been able to beat a good throw for Judge to 2b.   
     

    The Sox disc Whats got them there after Anthony went down; they pitched.  And their pitching limited the best offense in the AL to 9 runs in 3 games…

    37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    Yup. Now, even MVP is using errors (fldg% is about the same.)

    I've said all season that you can't play bad baseball and expect to win in the postseason. I've talked about the issues with errors long before now. I don't think it's the only thing to go by, but you can't hand wave it away and say "well, the METRICS say they were good." 

    13 minutes ago, notin said:

    The Yankees made blunders, too.  In no way should Sogard have been able to beat a good throw for Judge to 2b.   
     

    The Sox disc Whats got them there after Anthony went down; they pitched.  And their pitching limited the best offense in the AL to 9 runs in 3 games…

    The Yankees are a terrible fundamental team. The Dodgers famously wanted to play them last WS because of it. 

    26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    I'm not criticizing what you're saying.  I get it, in close games any little physical or mental blunder can make the difference.  And when you lose those things get magnified bigly.  

    That's all I'm saying. If they want to make that next step from playoff team to WS winner, they need to tighten that up. Go from 30th in errors to 15th or whatever. Just don't be SO boneheaded. 

    I've seen at other places people say "well, they only get errors because they are just so dang athletic and get to balls that no other players would get to." It's just not the case. Duran gets to those balls and if it doinks off of him, it's NOT called an error. He doesn't even get called for an error on 80% catch balls that just drop right next to him. What they are getting errors on are just the normal plays where they throw the ball away or just goof up so bad that the scorer needs to call it an E. Even Merloni has said on the broadcast that they barely call errors anymore, but somehow the Sox are getting them in droves. 

    3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    I've said all season that you can't play bad baseball and expect to win in the postseason. I've talked about the issues with errors long before now. I don't think it's the only thing to go by, but you can't hand wave it away and say "well, the METRICS say they were good." 

    Do you not think our D improved?

    I've said all along, we allow too many unearned runs and make too many baserunning mistakes. I'm not saying we fixed the problems, but this defense is way better than 2023 and better than 2024.

    Now, we may lose Bregman, and maybe Casas will be back at 1B. We may get worse, next year, especially if we trade Abreu or Rafaela over Duran.

    6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    That's all I'm saying. If they want to make that next step from playoff team to WS winner, they need to tighten that up. Go from 30th in errors to 15th or whatever. Just don't be SO boneheaded. 

    I've seen at other places people say "well, they only get errors because they are just so dang athletic and get to balls that no other players would get to." It's just not the case. Duran gets to those balls and if it doinks off of him, it's NOT called an error. He doesn't even get called for an error on 80% catch balls that just drop right next to him. What they are getting errors on are just the normal plays where they throw the ball away or just goof up so bad that the scorer needs to call it an E. Even Merloni has said on the broadcast that they barely call errors anymore, but somehow the Sox are getting them in droves. 

    I'm not afraid to say Duran sucked in the outfield this year (and as a leadoff batter, but that's for another post).

    To your point about deceptive stats that don't include eyeball assessments: Tyler Milligan on WEEI -- sorta the moonslav of literal voices -- tracked misplays by Duran for the entire season. Those didn't just include dropped catches that the official scorer from the home team called hits for their favorite players, but things like weak or bad throws that missed the cutoff or to the wrong base, and bad routes where not even his speed could compensate.

    Duran had 32 misplays. 

    6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    Do you not think our D improved?

    I've said all along, we allow too many unearned runs and make too many baserunning mistakes. I'm not saying we fixed the problems, but this defense is way better than 2023 and better than 2024.

    Now, we may lose Bregman, and maybe Casas will be back at 1B. We may get worse, next year, especially if we trade Abreu or Rafaela over Duran.

    At times it was ok, at times it was not good. Behind the plate, it was much better. 1b was on and off a train wreck. Story was average at best. Bregman was average. 2b felt like 1b to me. Duran was worse than last season. Rafaela was great in CF but stunk at 2b. Anthony was good. Abreu missed a lot of time which made the defense worse. 

    Sure, you didn't have the bad version of Connor Wong or Enmanuel Valdez/Rafael Devers out there, but you can't convince me that Romy is an average defender no matter what the metrics say. 

    1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

    I'm not afraid to say Duran sucked in the outfield this year (and as a leadoff batter, but that's for another post).

    To your point about deceptive stats that don't include eyeball assessments: Tyler Milligan on WEEI -- sorta the moonslav of literal voices -- tracked misplays by Duran for the entire season. Those didn't just include dropped catches that the official scorer from the home team called hits for their favorite players, but things like weak or bad throws that missed the cutoff or to the wrong base, and bad routes where not even his speed could compensate.

    Duran had 32 misplays. 

    And Duran isn't a guy that gets a great jump on the ball. He's bad at reading the ball and needs his athleticism to catch up to the ball. He's not a good OFer. His speed in LF skews the metrics. 

    The metrics are what they are. We don't have anything better right now. I've read that some people use OAA for OFers and DRS for IFers. IDK. 

    2025 in LF:

    DRS 11

    OAA -3 (dinged by LF wall with formula)

    8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    At times it was ok, at times it was not good. Behind the plate, it was much better. 1b was on and off a train wreck. Story was average at best. Bregman was average. 2b felt like 1b to me. Duran was worse than last season. Rafaela was great in CF but stunk at 2b. Anthony was good. Abreu missed a lot of time which made the defense worse. 

    Sure, you didn't have the bad version of Connor Wong or Enmanuel Valdez/Rafael Devers out there, but you can't convince me that Romy is an average defender no matter what the metrics say. 

    At times the D was good, but then it reared its ugly head, and looked like a Little League team in the field. 1B was not good, but they did save Bregman, and Story some throwing errors. Duran morphed back to somewhat being the Butterfly Man again, and him and RAF Man had some communication problems at times.

    2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

    At times the D was good, but then it reared its ugly head, and looked like a Little League team in the field. 1B was not good, but they did save Bregman, and Story some throwing errors. Duran morphed back to somewhat being the Butterfly Man again, and him and RAF Man had some communication problems at times.

    Casas was terrible at 1b. Romy was really bad early on (was injured because of it), but became playable over time. Toro was bad IMO. Lowe was capable. If you have a bad 1b, it really brings down the IF. 

    36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    At times it was ok, at times it was not good. Behind the plate, it was much better. 1b was on and off a train wreck. Story was average at best. Bregman was average. 2b felt like 1b to me. Duran was worse than last season. Rafaela was great in CF but stunk at 2b. Anthony was good. Abreu missed a lot of time which made the defense worse. 

    Sure, you didn't have the bad version of Connor Wong or Enmanuel Valdez/Rafael Devers out there, but you can't convince me that Romy is an average defender no matter what the metrics say. 

    All true, but I asked if it improved. Average at 3B and SS and up and down at 1B was much better than 2024.

    Duran was worse. RF was worse. C and 2B were better.

    Overall, we improved a lot from 2023 and a little from 2024. We still have more to go.

    13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    All true, but I asked if it improved. Average at 3B and SS and up and down at 1B was much better than 2024.

    Duran was worse. RF was worse. C and 2B were better.

    Overall, we improved a lot from 2023 and a little from 2024. We still have more to go.

    25: 31 DRS, 11 OAA, 116 errors

    24: 49 DRS, -18 OAA, 115 errors

    23: -20 DRS, -51 OAA, 102 errors

    Better than 23 when they had Kiké at SS, probably! Better than 24? Not so sure! Seems like it's close enough to be about the same. IDK. Maybe it's a big improvement if we just ignore DRS, but I honestly hear more people state DRS throughout the season than OAA. 

    27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    25: 31 DRS, 11 OAA, 116 errors

    24: 49 DRS, -18 OAA, 115 errors

    23: -20 DRS, -51 OAA, 102 errors

    Better than 23 when they had Kiké at SS, probably! Better than 24? Not so sure! Seems like it's close enough to be about the same. IDK. Maybe it's a big improvement if we just ignore DRS, but I honestly hear more people state DRS throughout the season than OAA. 

    The metrics do point to about even on D from 2024 to 2025, but it seemed better to me:

    4 much better by observations:

    3B: Bregman> Devers

    SS: Story> Rafaela, DHam 

    C: Narvaez, Wong> Wong, McGuire, Jansen

    CF: Rafaela, Duran < Duran>Rafaela

    4 Close to equal:

    RF: Abreu, Anthony, Ref =Abreu, Anthony, Ref-Eaton

    LF: Duran (Anthony)=>Duran, O'Neill, Ref 

    1B: Toro, Romy, Lowe, Casas=>DSmith, Casas, Dalbec, Romy-Cooper

    2B: KCampbell, DHam, Romy, Rafaela= EValdez, DHam, Grissom, Romy-Westbrook

    49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    25: 31 DRS, 11 OAA, 116 errors

    24: 49 DRS, -18 OAA, 115 errors

    23: -20 DRS, -51 OAA, 102 errors

    Better than 23 when they had Kiké at SS, probably! Better than 24? Not so sure! Seems like it's close enough to be about the same. IDK. Maybe it's a big improvement if we just ignore DRS, but I honestly hear more people state DRS throughout the season than OAA. 

    I think Bregman lost some range after getting injured, and Story wore down as the season wound down.

    Just now, Old Red said:

    That was Brez idea, and mostly everyone on here, but Raffy said no, and Cora made it pretty clear he wasn’t going to talk with him about it for more than 1 reason IMO.

    Well, he wasn't staying as the DH. Brez made that as clear as day.

    20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    Well, he wasn't staying as the DH. Brez made that as clear as day.

    And that’s why he was traded, and that’s why we will Never know if Raffy’s bat would have made a difference especially in Yankee Stadium in the postseason.




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