Rafael Devers Is Back

[Editor's Note: Nick volunteered to write this article before Friday's game, when Rafael Devers went 2-for-3 with two walks. After he wrote the article on Sunday, Devers went 5-for-8 with two doubles, two walks, and a homer. That brought his wRC+ for the season up to 134, the exact mark he hit in 2024. Rafael Devers is indeed back, and Nick was all over it.]

After opening the season with a hitless streak that reached 21 at-bats, Red Sox fans began to worry about Rafael Devers. Were his shoulders bothering him? Was he not handling the transition to designated hitter? Or could it have been a mechanical issue? It was just unlike Devers to struggle as much as he did, especially when you took into account that his bat speed was lower than it was last year. It's starting to look like all that worry was unnecessary.

Devers has now gotten five hits in his last 11 at-bats following Friday’s game. He looks calmer at the plate after getting his first hit out of the way, no longer pressing to break that hitless streak. That said, even when things were at their bleakest, Devers wasn't helping pitchers out. While he struck out 15 times in his first 19 at-bats, he was not chasing. His chase rate this season currently sits at 16.3%, placing him in the 94th percentile in the entire league. Likewise, his walk percentage has him in the 94th percentile as well, sitting at 18.9%.

The issue was timing. He was late on everything, often missing completely or failing to square up the ball properly. Entering Sunday, Devers’ 45.3% whiff rate has him in the second percentile. Missing nearly half of the pitches he swung at wouldn’t help, neither would the fact that he’s currently only squaring up the balls he does hit at an 11.8%.

Those numbers look bad, but they’re skewed by the slow start. Since April 2, when Devers began hitting, he has reached base at least twice per game and has increased his on-base percentage from .174 up to .324. He continues to lay off pitches outside the strike zone and make pitches work as he gets his timing back.

As part of his offseason program after being shut down due to shoulder issues, Devers did not do any baseball activities prior to spring training. Even in spring training, he did not play often as he and the team were cautious with his shoulders. While he would get several at-bats on the backfields, it isn’t the same as facing pitches in a live game situation. Now that he’s having live at-bats and seeing real pitches again, he’s starting to get his timing back.

Devers isn’t completely back yet but he’s heading in the right direction. Once we see Devers begin to lift the ball to left-center or right-center instead of hitting it hard on the ground then he will be completely back to his old self. But for now, Devers will continue to work until he’s back to his usual self. Missing most of spring training didn’t help and now he will have to work to catch up to where he should be. But if there’s anything from watching Devers since his debut, it’ll be just a matter of time until we see the left-handed slugger mash baseballs into the outfield gaps.

[Editor's Note: Yup.]