Projecting the 2025 Boston Red Sox Opening Day Roster: Version 1.0

One thing to note, however, is that I’m going into this under the assumption everyone remains healthy throughout the spring. It’s tough to expect but necessary for this roster projection.

Lineup & Batting Order

1.  Jarren Duran – LF (L): Duran broke out in 2024, making his first All-Star Game. Leading the Red Sox in games played, hits, doubles, triples, stolen bases, and batting average, he was a key piece of the lineup. In 2024, he opened the season as the left fielder before moving to center as Ceddanne Rafaela moved to the infield following Trevor Story’s injury. There’s a chance he could see a drop in some stats, though it’s safe to assume he’ll be a key piece of this lineup again.

2. Rafael Devers – 3B (L): Devers opened 2024 as the second hitter in the lineup before injuries and a need to drive in runs forced Cora to slide him to the cleanup spot. While batting cleanup may be where he ends up by the end of the season, I could see Cora placing him here to begin the season. His ability to hit for power, drive in runners, and get on base means he needs as many at-bats as possible each game. And with Duran hitting before him, it’ll lead to plenty of RBI opportunities in the beginning and late portions of the game.

3. Triston Casas – 1B (L): Casas missed most of the 2024 season due to injuries, but he was an important factor in the lineup when he played. In only 63 games, he hit 13 home runs and walked 30 times. With his power, there is hope that he could hit 30 or more home runs and provide an option to deter pitchers from walking Devers late in the game. However, with a lefty on the mound, I’m not surprised if Story and Casas swap spots in the lineup.

4 Trevor Story – SS (R): Breaking up the string of lefties early in the lineup is Story. The oft-injured shortstop will look to bounce back from another lost season. With the hope that Story will remain healthy for a full season, there is no reason to doubt his ability to return to a 20 to 25 home run pace with a patient approach at the plate. Ten of his 26 games in 2024 were spent batting either third or fourth in the lineup, barring a last-minute addition to the team; there’s a good chance he’ll be hitting in the top half of the lineup again. 

5. Wilyer Abreu – RF (L): Coming off of a great rookie season that saw him take home a Gold Glove, Abreu will look to build off of it and cement himself as a key piece of this team’s future. Last season, I saw Abreu bat mostly in the two-hole, but if he is fully healthy, I could see his ability to drive the ball be useful with runners on base. His 125 strikeouts in only 399 at-bats are why I feel he may bat lower in the lineup this season if everyone is healthy.

6. Kristian Campbell – 2B (R): The first shakeup of the lineup, Campbell will report to camp as a non-roster invite. After his fantastic 2024 season and how highly the team speaks of him, I wouldn’t be surprised if Campbell breaks camp with the Red Sox. Spring training will see a battle between Campbell, Vaughn Grissom, and David Hamilton for the starting second base position, and barring a tough spring, I think Campbell will win it. A combination of bat-to-ball skills, power, and speed will make him an exciting rookie who could also help with the lineup being primarily left-handed.

7. Masataka Yoshida – DH (L): Yoshida is an interesting player. Last season, Cora did not like using him against left-handed pitching unless it was unavoidable. Following the season, it was revealed that he needed surgery. The team has said they plan to use him in the outfield again this season, though his real value is in his bat. Yoshida does not strike out much and showcased some power with 10 home runs and 21 doubles in 108 games. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cora tried to protect him against lefties again this season.

8. Connor Wong – C (R): Wong spent 2024 as his second straight season as the primary catcher on the team. Playing in 126 games, he managed a .280/.333/.425 stat line to go along with 13 home runs and 52 RBI. With no real competition for the starting catcher position, it’s easy to see Wong slotting back into that role to begin 2025.

9. Ceddanne Rafaela – CF (R): Rafaela had an up-and-down rookie campaign, bouncing around the field as needed. He split most of his 152 games between center field and shortstop, though with a healthy Trevor Story, he will remain in center field where his glove will allow him to shine. His bat still needs work, though Rafaela’s aggressive batting will likely stay here. Still, the potential for the last hitter in your lineup to have a 20-20 season is enough to get him at-bats. However, the fact he only had five walks from July until the end of the season is a bit worrying.

*Update: Following the signing of Alex Bregman, I feel there is a slight change in the lineup. The following is my new projected 1.0 lineup. 

1) Jarren Duran - LF (L)

2) Rafael Devers - DH (L)

3) Alex Bregman - 3B (R)

4) Triston Casas - 1B (L)

5) Trevor Story - SS (R)

6) Kristian Campbell - 2B (R)

7) Wilyer Abreu - RF (L)

8) Connor Wong - C (R)

9) Ceddanne Rafaela - CF (R)

The Bench

Rob Refsnyder – OF/DH (R): Refsnyder has been a key bat for the Red Sox since joining the organization in 2022, and he’ll be expected to play a key role again in 2025. The outfielder plays best when he is a lefty crusher, slashing .302/.393/.548 with eight home runs in 126 at-bats in 2024. Refsnyder will get into the lineup on days that a left-handed pitcher is on the mound, either for Abreu or Yoshida and will also be used in pinch-hit situations late in the game against lefties. His power output was a surprise last season, as his 11 home runs were almost half his entire career.

Carlos Narvaez – C (R): Narvaez was acquired this winter from the Yankees in a trade during the Winter Meetings. A defensive catcher, Narvaez has a total of 13 at-bats at the major league level and will be looked to as the backup catcher to Wong. His main competition in spring training will be Blake Sabol, though Narvaez’s defensive abilities will likely give him the edge in this competition.

Vaughn Grissom – 2B (R): Grissom did not see his Red Sox career start well. Injured in Spring Training, the righty took a while to get going as he struggled to stay healthy. Upon returning from one hamstring injury, he ended up hurting the other. However, his performance across eight September games showed the kind of healthy player he could be. I believe that potential alone will guarantee him a spot on the opening-day roster. Should Campbell struggle, I see second being Grissom's to lose.

Romy Gonzalez – 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF (R): I was tempted to give David Hamilton the last spot on the bench as the speedy player would give the Sox a stolen base threat off the bench. However, I feel Gonzalez’s defensive versatility (having played every position for the Red Sox except catcher and pitcher) makes him a bigger piece to keep. Also, being a right-handed hitter will allow Cora to mix and match the lineup based on the opposing team’s pitcher. Gonzalez played better against lefties than righties, slashing .302/.362/.517 vs .217/.221/.277.

Starting Rotation

1. Garrett Crochet (LHP): Acquired at the Winter Meetings in a deal headlined by prospect Kyle Teel, Crochet gives the Red Sox a bona fide ace. Having already announced that there are no plans for an innings limit, it’ll be exciting to see what the lefty can do across an entire season. He looks to lead a revamped pitching staff.

2. Tanner Houck (RHP): Coming off of an All-Star season, Houck will look to build off of it. The righty led the Sox rotation in ERA and WAR and threw the only complete game out of all the starters in 2024. The biggest point of interest for Houck will be his ability to push through late-season fatigue, as August saw him hit a rough patch before bouncing back.

3. Walker Buehler (RHP): Buehler was the last major free agent the Sox have signed as of this write-up, coming to Boston on a one-year deal. The righty returned to the mound in 2024 after missing almost two years. His return was unexpected, appearing in 16 games and struggling at times. However, he seemed to have discovered something in the playoffs as he surrendered six runs in 15 innings (all six runs being in his first appearance). He’ll look to build off of that postseason and return to his pre-injury form.

4. Brayan Bello (RHP): Last year’s Opening Day starter sees himself as the number four starter in this rotation. Last season, Bello saw some ups and downs, as he had a great April before struggling in May and June. Fortunately, Bello looked to round a corner in the second half, starting 13 games and having a 3.47 ERA across 72 2/3 innings pitched. He also lowered the number of home runs he allowed to just five in the second half.

5. Lucas Giolito (RHP): Signed last offseason to be a key addition to the 2024 rotation, Giolito got injured in his second Spring Training start and needed Tommy John surgery. Now healthy, he insists he’s ready to work and help the team. As he comes back from injury, there’s a chance the Red Sox may limit his workload to begin the season despite what he insists.

6. Kutter Crawford (RHP): Crawford rounds out the rumored six-man rotation in what will be a swingman role. Starting or providing long relief as needed by the team. Like Houck and Bello, Crawford saw improvements in 2024 and rough patches. The righty led the team with 33 starts and 183 2/3 innings pitched, but he also led all major league baseball with 34 home runs surrendered. If Crawford wants to remain in the rotation, he must limit the number of home runs he allows.

Bullpen

Aroldis Chapman (LHP): The key reliever brought in this offseason, Chapman will look to be a shutdown reliever for the team. He’s no longer the star reliever from the mid-2010s, but he’s still a capable pitcher. Appearing in 68 games last season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chapman saved 14 games and struck out 98 batters in 61 2/3 innings pitched. His fastball still plays and should allow him to be a key piece of Cora’s bullpen.

Justin Slaten (RHP): Slaten proved himself early in his rookie season as a dependable arm in the bullpen. Now, he’ll be looked to step up even more with Kenley Jansen's and Chris Martin's departures. What might be his most valuable stat that the Red Sox hope he repeats is the lack of home runs he surrendered, only giving up four in 55 1/3 innings.

Liam Hendriks (RHP): Hendriks signed last season right as spring training began with the expectation that he would return to the mound at some point near the end of August or early September. That didn’t happen as he struggled to bounce back as expected in his rehab stint in Worcester. With a healthy offseason to rest, Hendriks and the Red Sox hope he can return close to the level he was at from 2019 through 2022, where he was one of the best closers in the game.

Justin Wilson (LHP): This was a confusing signing as he struggled down the stretch in Cincinnati, which saw him finish the season with a 5.59 ERA in 46 2/3 innings pitched. There is a chance that his workload caught up to him and led to his brutal August and September (14 earned runs allowed in 17 2/3 innings) compared to his July, which saw him pitch rather decently. As the second lefty in the bullpen, Wilson might be viewed as coming in to get a batter or two to end an inning instead of looking to get length out of the 37-year-old. But if he struggles early, I’m not surprised if he’s let go for more promising arms in Worcester.

Greg Weissert (RHP): Weissert had an up-and-down first season in Boston but still finished with a tidy 3.13 ERA in 63 1/3 innings pitched. Weissert started the season well and ended the season on a roll as he did not allow an earned run across 17 2/3 innings pitched in August and September. The righty is better served in low or medium leverage and could serve the role well. Just don’t use him in high-leverage situations, as batters slashed .357/.427/.518 against him in those situations. Every team needs a low-leverage arm to pitch the sixth or seventh inning, and Weissert can fill that role. Don’t be surprised if he’s optioned once Garrett Whitlock is healthy.

Zack Kelly (RHP): Kelly has spent parts of three seasons in Boston, though 2024 was his biggest role with the club. Appearing in 49 games, Kelly pitched 56 2/3 innings and struck out 61, ending the season with the biggest moment of the season was getting out of a no-out, bases-loaded jam against the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. After being one of the best arms in the bullpen for the first half, Kelly struggled in the second half.

Cooper Criswell (RHP): Criswell did whatever he was asked to do last year, whether starting or coming out of the bullpen. Appearing in 26 games, the righty won six games while throwing 99 1/3 innings. Criswell won’t be needed to start this season and could see himself optioned at times to Worcester to bring up a fresh arm, but to begin the year; it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in a role similar to the one Chase Anderson held last season. Pitch when you’re either up by a lot or losing by a lot to preserve the bullpen in either situation.

Josh Winckowski could win a long reliever role in spring training, one of the arms listed above, to begin the year in Worcester. Still, I feel the Red Sox view him as more valuable as a starter in Worcester alongside the likes of Quinn Priester, Hunter Dobbins, and Richard Fitts. Garrett Whitlock was someone I initially projected to make the opening day roster, but I changed it as we don’t know where he currently is in his rehab. Depending on how spring training goes for him, there’s a chance he’ll open the season in Worcester. My last tough choice was Brennan Bernardino, a staple in the Red Sox bullpen the past two seasons. With Chapman being the number one lefty in the bullpen and the signing of Justin Wilson to a major league deal, I don’t think there’s much space for Bernardino. However, if an injury happens, he'll likely be the first arm called up.