Just How Good Will the Red Sox Be In 2025?

I really wish we could start a season not having to hope or pray for a full season from Story and Casas, but it is what it is.

I like our 2B outlook better than I did, last winter. 

I worry more about our catcher D, than I did, last winter.

I think our offense can make up for the loss of O'Neill and stay similarly ranked, but it would be nice to make a move to improve it, beyond needing to hope a top prospect or two steps in and steps up.

After a half decade of stifling our fan dedication, the window the Red Sox keep promising may finally be opening. 

So why aren't they installing a screen to keep the bugs out.

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As it stands they look like an 84-85 win team.  Might be enough to get into the playoffs, because the AL has really become the weak sister of the two leagues.

Seems like that's what ownership is shooting for.

That sounds fair.

If the rumors are true, we are still looking to add something useful, and maybe it could be significant, like Scott or Bregman. Someone like Grichuk and Estevez or Finnegan could be enough to make us playoff faves.

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's if things break relatively right with the pitching. 

The same can be said about every team.

On paper, our rotation is top 3 in the AL. Our pen might be 6th to 9th.

IMO, our bats are 5th to 8th, our baserunning 2nd to 5th and our defense is 10th to 13th but needs a healthy Story.

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The same can be said about every team.

On paper, our rotation is top 3 in the AL. Our pen might be 6th to 9th.

IMO, our bats are 5th to 8th, our baserunning 2nd to 5th and our defense is 10th to 13th but needs a healthy Story.

I question my many call the bullpen a weakness.  Granted, it’s got a few questions.  But sometimes the answer to a question is a resounding “YES!!”

Yes Jansen and Martin are gone, and the 2024 bullpen had its issues. But who is left from the 2024?opening day bullpen? As far as I can tell, just Slaten.  Maybe Bernardino, if he starts the year in Boston.
 

Returning arms Whitlock and Crawford started 2024 in the rotation, and Winckowski started in Worcester. Some new faces include Aroldis Chapman, who isn’t the same pitcher he was even 5 years ago. But neither are Martin and Jansen.  (OK, Martin might be.  Outside of 2023, he’s been hovering around average.)  Liam Hendriks did miss the last two seasons, but had a very impressive track record before that.  Justin Wilson is (I’m setting the odds here) less than 50% on finishing the season in Boston.  I like the potential of Luis Guerrero, and if they can both come back, Michael Fulmer and Jovani Moran are solid relievers. (Moran will be out for a while.). Plus they have some Austin Adams vets and Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, and Zack Penrod for depth.

It could easily be a very improved part of the team…

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wait, which "paper" are you talking about for all these rankings?

My paper, but steamers has our rotation #1 in the AL, but lower in their batting+defense combined metric than mine comes to.

1 hour ago, notin said:

I like the potential of Luis Guerrero, and if they can both come back, Michael Fulmer and Jovani Moran are solid relievers. (Moran will be out for a while.). Plus they have some Austin Adams vets and Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, and Zack Penrod for depth.

It could easily be a very improved part of the team…

I left the end of your quote because I think Looie G and the last three are most likely to contribute key roles over any rehabbers.

But I'm surprised I'm the only one who doesn't envision Crawford in the pen. Every other member of the projected five-man rotation has had injury issues -- sure, it can be solid if we just look at names and pedigree, but does anyone really think all five or even four of Crochet-Beuhler-Houck-Bello-Giolito will pitch the whole season healthy without IL stints? 

Cutter Crawford led the majors in games started -- that makes him the most reliable starter on the team. Cora may go with a six-man rotation the first few months, anyway.

The most improved part of the bullpen may be Whitlock, if he can regain his rookie form before hip issues.

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I left the end of your quote because I think Looie G and the last three are most likely to contribute key roles over any rehabbers.

But I'm surprised I'm the only one who doesn't envision Crawford in the pen. Every other member of the projected five-man rotation has had injury issues -- sure, it can be solid if we just look at names and pedigree, but does anyone really think all five or even four of Crochet-Beuhler-Houck-Bello-Giolito will pitch the whole season healthy without IL stints? 

Cutter Crawford led the majors in games started -- that makes him the most reliable starter on the team. Cora may go with a six-man rotation the first few months, anyway.

The most improved part of the bullpen may be Whitlock, if he can regain his rookie form before hip issues.

I’ve been calling Crawford a starter all off-season.  I only put him in the bullpen because I don’t think the Sox go to a six man rotation.  But they do have enough health question marks in that rotation that Crawford starting feels inevitable at some point..

Pivetta was our GS'd leader for a long time. Nobody was crying for his return, and he was better than Crawford.

I'd put Crawford in the pen, even if we add Tanner Scott and push everyone else down a notch.

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nobody was crying for Pivetta's return, but by the same token I don't think anyone would have complained if he stayed.  Most would likely prefer him to Crawford. 

Pivetta just went and got expensive on us.

Good point, and he too was moved to the pen, at least once.

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This offseason seems to be turning out a lot like last offseason.  Flurries of excitement alternating with weeks of crickets. 

There are still some really good players out there, but many don't fit the Sox needs or budget, too well.

MLBTR Top 50 still left:

3. Bregman

7. Alonso

8. Flaherty

9. Santander

14. T Scott

16. Profar

22. Estevez

25. Heaney

28. Pivetta

31. Quintanna, 33. Scherzer, 41. Gibson

34. Minter

38.  Yates

42. Kahnle

43. H-S Kim, 49. Bader, 50. Turnull

47. Robertson

Honorable Mention:

Grichuk

Jansen, Martin, Sewald, Finnegan

6 hours ago, notin said:

I question my many call the bullpen a weakness.  Granted, it’s got a few questions.  But sometimes the answer to a question is a resounding “YES!!”

Yes Jansen and Martin are gone, and the 2024 bullpen had its issues. But who is left from the 2024?opening day bullpen? As far as I can tell, just Slaten.  Maybe Bernardino, if he starts the year in Boston.
 

Returning arms Whitlock and Crawford started 2024 in the rotation, and Winckowski started in Worcester. Some new faces include Aroldis Chapman, who isn’t the same pitcher he was even 5 years ago. But neither are Martin and Jansen.  (OK, Martin might be.  Outside of 2023, he’s been hovering around average.)  Liam Hendriks did miss the last two seasons, but had a very impressive track record before that.  Justin Wilson is (I’m setting the odds here) less than 50% on finishing the season in Boston.  I like the potential of Luis Guerrero, and if they can both come back, Michael Fulmer and Jovani Moran are solid relievers. (Moran will be out for a while.). Plus they have some Austin Adams vets and Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, and Zack Penrod for depth.

 

It could easily be a very improved part of the team…

There is a lot of potential, and we have a large quantity of RP'ers with some various levels of promise. I think I counted 20, one time. There is a lot to say for having depth, but not having any proven closer is scary. The one that used to be closer have been hurt or in other roles, recently.

Our lowest OPS Against Pitchers in Relief (170+ PAs)

.575 Jansen

.576 Slaten

.677 Anderson

.680 Martin

.702 Booser

.725 Weissert

.750 Kelly

How many of these guys will be in the opening day Sox pen?

.770 Wink

.775 Bernardino

Our pen stunk to end the 2024 season, and the pitchers we added might outpitch the ones we lost, but they have to better than just break even.

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

There is a lot of potential, and we have a large quantity of RP'ers with some various levels of promise. I think I counted 20, one time. There is a lot to say for having depth, but not having any proven closer is scary. The one that used to be closer have been hurt or in other roles, recently.

Our lowest OPS Against Pitchers in Relief 9170+ PAs)

.575 Jansen

.576 Slaten

.677 Anderson

.680 Martin

.702 Booser

.725 Weissert

.750 Kelly

How many of these guys will be in the opening day Sox pen?

.770 Wink

.775 Bernardino

Our pen stunk to end the 2024 season, and the pitchers we added might outpitch the ones we lost, but they have to better than just break even.

On the 40 man, we have 11 SPs counting Sandoval, who. is not long for the 40 man once he can be moved.  And I want to say they have 13 relief pitchers.  Those numbers could change to 10 and 14 if Fulmer replaces Sandoval…

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

There are still some really good players out there, but many don't fit the Sox needs or budget, too well.

MLBTR Top 50 still left:

3. Bregman

7. Alonso

8. Flaherty

9. Santander

14. T Scott

16. Profar

22. Estevez

25. Heaney

28. Pivetta

31. Quintanna, 33. Scherzer, 41. Gibson

34. Minter

38.  Yates

42. Kahnle

43. H-S Kim, 49. Bader, 50. Turnull

47. Robertson

Honorable Mention:

Grichuk

Jansen, Martin, Sewald, Finnegan

Assuming we don't pay top dollar for Scott (or anyone, anywhere)...

Also assuming all the other good closers -- those most recently good at this fickle position -- are waiting for Scott to sign, so they can make more unreasonable demands as the next best things.

But the Sox' top priority should be to land either Estevez or Yates. 

2 hours ago, notin said:

On the 40 man, we have 11 SPs counting Sandoval, who. is not long for the 40 man once he can be moved.  And I want to say they have 13 relief pitchers.  Those numbers could change to 10 and 14 if Fulmer replaces Sandoval…

With everyone but Murphy & Sandoval healthy on opening day (Whitlock might need a few weeks more,) I see this 8 man pen on opening day:

Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Wilson & Weissert

5 in AAA on 40: Guerrero, Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly & Shugart

When Sandoval & Murphy get placed on the 60 day IL, maybe we add Adams, Fulmer or ICampbell/Mata/Moran and then other non 40 depth, like Jose Adames, Hobie Haris, Noah Davis and Jap Stock. IT's debatable numbering these guys as depth, but I'd say 5 or 6 will almost surely get a look-see in '25. That gets us to 18 plus.

Then, there are the SP'ers who could get pen time in MLB in '25: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and non roster guys like Gambrell, Drohan and maybe Sandlin or Early from AA. Pen guys from AA are a longshot: Hoppe & Troye.

We used 25 pitchers in relief, last season, not counting DSmith & PReyes. I can see 25 from above getting a look, but a few from last year were added during the season.

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The SoxProspect guys prefer Yates over Estevez, but I'd take either as they would both improve the pen. I don't see them going for Scott.

Yates will probably get just 1 year, so the Sox could be all over that.

I could see Yates and Grichuk to end the off season.

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I can't see anything.  It's all a mystery.

I was thinking in terms of the lowest probable cost and shortest probable contracts of players still on the market. That's why I guessed on them.

I think Bregman's price and years has to drop for the Sox to bite. I doubt they go $200M/8.

Maybe $156-162M/6 is the best he can get, so we might go there. He could get an opt out after 3-4 years, too. I might even give him one after 2 years. Maybe we have the Campbell-Mayer situation figured out, by then. (Story's gone after 3.)