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    Is Kristian Campbell The Answer To The Red Sox's First Base Problem?

    Kristian Campbell has proven that he can move around the field with success. Should a permanent move to first base be in his future?

    Alex Mayes
    Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

    Red Sox Video

    Although Kristian Campbell has had a few days off in a row, there’s reason to believe that he could solve the biggest hole in the infield at the moment. Starting with the game Friday against the Braves, Campbell was practicing infield drills at first base. 

    When asked about it, Campbell said, “Whatever makes the team better, that’s the position I’ll play. I’m used to second base, because I played that in college. But whatever makes the team at the time.” That’s the kind of attitude you want from your hopeful future All-Star who is under contract for the next eight years.

    Campbell is a gifted athlete. He’s started at second base, center field, and left field this season. It would likely behoove the Red Sox to pick a position for him to stay at, though. He's mired in a tough May slump — he's slashing .085/.104/.149 with a 31% strikeout rate this month — and, like most young players, would likely benefit from the stability of focusing on a sole defensive spot. Why not the position that is currently a black hole?

    Triston Casas won’t be back until sometime next season, and it's not like he was lighting the world on fire when he was healthy this year. Romy Gonzalez is taking longer to recover from his thigh contusion than anticipated, Abraham Toro looks overmatched against big league pitching, and Nick Sogard seems incredibly uncomfortable at first this season. Yes, Campbell will likely experience some growing pains if and when he switches, but he’s young and talented. He overcame most of his issues at second base fairly quickly, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t adjust to first base on the fly. Alex Cora has said that, as of now, Campbell won’t see game action at first unless the team is up by 15 or down by 10, but it looks like the possibility of a position switch is something the team is taking seriously. 

    Outside of solving the general conundrum of who will man the cold corner, the biggest boost the team would receive from moving Campbell to first would be the fact that it would open the door for top prospect Marcelo Mayer to break into the big leagues.

    Mayer is a natural shortstop, a position that desperately needs to be upgraded, but he’s recently been starting games at second base for Worcester. His offense hasn’t taken a significant downturn with the position change, and his defense has still been great. Moving Campbell to first base means Mayer gets to bring one of the hottest bats in the minor leagues to the big league club. There’s an argument to be made to bring Mayer up to play shortstop, move Trevor Story to second, and have Campbell man first as well. Story played well at second during his first season in Boston (when Xander Bogaerts was still with the team), and the position (which is less physically demanding) would likely keep him healthier throughout a long season, but thus far, Cora seems dead set on having Story continue to play shortstop. 

    It’s possible that moving Campbell to first won’t work, though it’s unlikely to be a worse experiment than whatever else the team is currently throwing at the wall. Campbell is willing to do whatever the team needs for him to do, and that’s an early sign of leadership. Getting him more work before games, and then hopefully in game situations where the Red Sox are up by a lot, only helps to expedite the call-up of Mayer. That will provide another youth injection into the team and finally, hopefully, solidify first base for future seasons.

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    21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

    For sure. You don't finish near .500, every year, without having multiple weak areas or areas with little depth. You have to pick and choose, when you cut your budget or refuse to spend on quality talent while looking for bargain basement players to fill too many weak positions.

    2B has been worse than 1B, since at least casas had some hopes.

    Ace was another neglected area.

    Sox got the ace, then starting pitcher health luck died on the vine. 

    1B continues to be a mystery for our CBO. I think they have a guy in AAA now that could be a 1B for them at some point next season... A guy that a lot of people think will just end up being traded anyway because of the surplus in the OF. A guy with a really hard name to spell. He's on the 40 man too... I'm not sure anyone has mentioned moving him to 1B, but he's a RHB (!) with pull side power (!) and has a good work ethic. Could pick up 1B if asked IMO. 

    I keep hearing that he's trade bait, but I kinda want him as my 1B next season. 🫣

     

    11 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    I think a lot of fans feel much like you do.  The only problem is that Story is owed $70Million for 2025 to 2027.  Do you eat that in hopes a guy who hasn't performed that well in the minors suddenly becomes the player everyone wanted to him to be?  With $70Million owed it's hard to believe Boston would eat that money for the least certain of the star prospects.  If Story needs to play this year and two more it makes way more sense to move Mayer to 1B and see if he can stick there, move Campbell back to 2B.  Then bring up Anthony and nudge either Rafaela or Abreu into the fourth outfielder role.  Maybe you play Abreu against right-handed hitters and move Anthony to center and when Rafaela plays you have Anthony in right field.  Also, when Casas comes back you can see if he can beat out Mayer at 1B.  If he can't, he's trade bait like Yoshida.  

    Story's defense has taken a big step backwards this year.  The only thing he does positive is run the bases well. Mayer should be at SS sooner or later and I suspect the Sox will do just that.  

     

    1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

    Story's defense has taken a big step backwards this year.  The only thing he does positive is run the bases well. Mayer should be at SS sooner or later and I suspect the Sox will do just that.  

    Mayer/Story platoon. Story gets additional reps at 2b? Once they are comfortable with Campbell at 1B, it could happen? I think Mayer still needs a little more time in AAA, but whatever. 

    23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    At least I'm not charging you for it. 😄 

    "You seem to have unresolved issues with the 2012 Red Sox fanbase. Do you want to talk about that a little today?" 

    I take a deep breath, exhale and begin.

    56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    Sox got the ace, then starting pitcher health luck died on the vine. 

    1B continues to be a mystery for our CBO. I think they have a guy in AAA now that could be a 1B for them at some point next season... A guy that a lot of people think will just end up being traded anyway because of the surplus in the OF. A guy with a really hard name to spell. He's on the 40 man too... I'm not sure anyone has mentioned moving him to 1B, but he's a RHB (!) with pull side power (!) and has a good work ethic. Could pick up 1B if asked IMO. 

    I keep hearing that he's trade bait, but I kinda want him as my 1B next season. 🫣

     

    Not against it

    1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

    Mayer/Story platoon. Story gets additional reps at 2b? Once they are comfortable with Campbell at 1B, it could happen? I think Mayer still needs a little more time in AAA, but whatever. 

    I wonder though, is Campbell at 1b because he is going to move there? or is he going to be able to back up there?  I still don't believe Campbell is their plan A right now. 

    Mayer, with a good stat line, is in the midst of his first funk but he did draw 3 walks last night.  Mayer may or may not be ready, but he's very close.  Anthony looks ready, and Mayer is literally just a half a step behind. 

    It may be a little bittersweet because Campbell is going through a funk so perhaps some aren't as excited about more Rookies on the cusp of beginning their big league Journey but this is a pretty cool time. 

    I think it would be pretty awesome if those three just feeded off each others energy.  Get them on the same roster!!!!

    6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

    I wonder though, is Campbell at 1b because he is going to move there? or is he going to be able to back up there?  I still don't believe Campbell is their plan A right now. 

    I think it would be pretty awesome if those three just feeded off each others energy.  Get them on the same roster!!!!

    I agree that just inserting Anthony and Mayer would add a lot to this team. We saw in in ST! 

    I don't know what their plans are with Campbell in 1B. I'm not sure they even know. Cora and Breslow are likely not on the same page. It's kind of a mess and it's not a surprise that we have no idea what's going on. I can't blame players for being confused either. 

    2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    Our opinions as fans are all worthless.  I wholeheartedly accept and even cherish the worthlessness of my opinions on the Sox.  Some people are under the unfortunate delusion that their opinions are sound and they matter. 

    🙃

    There’s a reason most of us post anonymously.  In fact, I would bet $11.47 USD you’re not only not the real Mark Bellhorn, but you’ve never even met him…

    5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

    You're the only person on earth saying Mayer can't be a SS and maybe should move to 1B.  

    kids, because thats what he was, he was drafted as a teenager need to develop on both sides of the ball.

    Here's what the Pro's say about Mayers defense. 

    Soxprospects.com Instinctual defender with fluid actions. Looks like he is gliding on the field. Soft hands and solid footwork. Moves well and has plenty of range for shortstop. Confident defender; will take a flashy infield. Some long-term concerns about his ability to stick at shortstop as he matures. Organization appeared poised to get him some reps at third base midway through 2024, but injuries, including the one that eventually ended his season after July 30, effectively scuttled those plans. Potential above-average defender at short for the foreseeable future

    Pipeline (8th overall) The Red Sox landed the fourth overall pick in 2021, their earliest since 1967, and MLB Pipeline's top-rated Draft prospect in Mayer, a California prep shortstop whom some scouts considered the best hitter and defender that year. He has mostly lived up to expectations  

    Bigger than most shortstops, Mayer has below-average speed but his quick first step and instincts help him compensate.

     he plays a solid shortstop with plus arm strength. Some evaluators like him better at third base, where they believe he could be a plus defender with profile power.

    Baseball America (8th overall)- Mayer has excellent hands, a strong, accurate arm with the ability to vary his throwing angle, and the anticipation and well-calibrated clock of an above-average to plus shortstop. Some evaluators still wonder if he'll outgrow the position as he adds strength into his 20s, but such a move is unlikely to be considered as he moves through the minors. Though Mayer has below-average speed, his instincts allow him to play faster than his foot speed.

    What is it you know that they don't that has you saying he should move to 1B?

    It's very simple.  I go by performance not hype.  A player can showcase extremely well but not perform.  I compare factual stats rather than hearing about how good a guy looks.  Jeter Downs is a perfect example.  Great bat speed, launch angle, athleticism, arm, base running etc etc etc.  Then I went and read his stats and saw for 198 games he was below average and for 12 games at the end of 2019 he got promoted to hit against 2 of the worst pitching teams in the AA league he was promoted to.  He hit .333 for 12 games and jumped for around 200 to 44 in the pipeline ratings thanks to Friedman and his public relations group.  Cincinati had Downs from the draft and saw he wasn't cutting so they traded him to LAD and duped Friedman.  The second he found out the issue with Down's performance he got promoted to be packaged to somewhere else.  Fortunely, he was a mentor to Bloom and he took the guy who suddenly jumped over 150 spots in the ratings after 12 games.    

    There were many, many Red Sox fans that criticized my opinion and I explained it wasn't an opinion, it was the stats from his actual performance.  I'm in the exact same situation with Mayer.  Dull performance at the lower levels of the minors with multiple injuries.  2024 was his only good year and I thought when he got promoted to AAA he would finally prove himself.  Unfortunately, like several times before he got hurt and was a no show.  Anthony took about two or three games to adjust to AAA and took off and destroyed the pitchers.  Campbell took off immediately and then started to fade the last week or so.  That's why I think Anthony has nothing left to prove and should be promoted, Campbell now needs to learn how to deal with adversity just like Harper did when he was a rookie and failed for the first time in his life and Mayer needs to become a consistent hitter who stays healthy and fields better.  You don't like fielding percentage, but he only had a .951 fielding percentage in the minors.  If nothing else, that should throw up a red flag to suggest there may be an underlying issue with his fielding.  Possibly great athleticism and that doesn't translate to the field.  His spring training comment suggests a massive ego like Devers and an expectation he should be given everything because he's a 4th pick in the draft.  Personally, he needs to learn humility and I think Cora agrees.  I hope he gains that and turns out just like you expect him to.

    Experts who sit and view players and ignore their actual performance aren't much of experts to me.

    21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

    I wonder though, is Campbell at 1b because he is going to move there? or is he going to be able to back up there?  I still don't believe Campbell is their plan A right now. 

     

    I wonder how much they really prepare their backups.

    For example, Romy Gonzalez backed up 1b last and this year, but he hadn’t played the position in a game since A ball, and even then it was only a handful of games.  Did he work out at 1b at all last year before seeing game action?  If he did, it certainly wasn’t newsworthy.

    (I don’t expect anyone to know if he ad cruelly did. Just food for thought.)

    25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

    I wonder though, is Campbell at 1b because he is going to move there? or is he going to be able to back up there?  I still don't believe Campbell is their plan A right now. 

    Mayer, with a good stat line, is in the midst of his first funk but he did draw 3 walks last night.  Mayer may or may not be ready, but he's very close.  Anthony looks ready, and Mayer is literally just a half a step behind. 

    It may be a little bittersweet because Campbell is going through a funk so perhaps some aren't as excited about more Rookies on the cusp of beginning their big league Journey but this is a pretty cool time. 

    I think it would be pretty awesome if those three just feeded off each others energy.  Get them on the same roster!!!!

    Go back in time and look at Mayer's stats in the lower minors.  Funks are commonplace.  That is a trend for him.  That's why Anthony looks like a far better prospect from a performance standpoint just like Campbell.

    This is a really cool time.  Having great rookies come up around the same time has always been memorable.  Rice and Lynn was a great era in Boston.  Bogaerts and Mookie then Benny and Devers was an exciting time too.  Now Duran, Campbell, Anthony and Mayer looks to be great fun with unexpected contributions like Narvaez makes this a very fun team to watch while they mature.

    38 minutes ago, notin said:

    There’s a reason most of us post anonymously.  In fact, I would bet $11.47 USD you’re not only not the real Mark Bellhorn, but you’ve never even met him…

    I am not Willie Stargell just in case anyone was wondering. 

    1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

    Huh? 

    Wait, we're talking about password at 1B because "why not?", right.

    I think Moon is pretending that hes been an advocate for PW for 5 years, which isnt fair.  He was advocating for Jonafran for 5 years but PW only last 2.

    46 minutes ago, notin said:

    There’s a reason most of us post anonymously.  In fact, I would bet $11.47 USD you’re not only not the real Mark Bellhorn, but you’ve never even met him…

    arent you that guy from that cereal commercial, NutN'Honey or something from like the early nineties when some dude would mutter something under his breath at the bfast table and his wife was like "EXCUSE ME!?!?!?"  And you went "nuttin honey" which was the name of the cereal you were eating, it became your moniker but was eventually shortened to notin

    2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

    Wait, we're talking about password at 1B because "why not?", right.

    I think Moon is pretending that hes been an advocate for PW for 5 years, which isnt fair.  He was advocating for Jonafran for 5 years but PW only last 2.

    Jhostynxon didn't even pop until last year. There's no way he was advocating for him in '23 and '24 (much less longer) when he was the lesser prospect than Johanfran. I was just wondering if moon was confused and thought I was referring to someone else. 

    I watched a ton of Salem games early on in '24 and the Garcia Bros were a real bright spot for that team. I can't take credit for being "on" him first or whatever since there were good reports about him in ST. He didn't even become a top 30 prospect until after April '24 for SoxProspects.  

    At this point, Im willing to try anyone at 1b except for "actual first baseman" because I dont think it really matters much at all if a dude has played first base before.  It would be like an elite manager being nervous about being a third base coach because never done it before. My gut tells me you got this.

    Actual first baseman just remind me of Kasey Kotchman and who wants that?

    1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

    Jhostynxon didn't even pop until last year. There's no way he was advocating for him in '23 and '24 (much less longer) when he was the lesser prospect than Johanfran. I was just wondering if moon was confused and thought I was referring to someone else. 

    I watched a ton of Salem games early on in '24 and the Garcia Bros were a real bright spot for that team. I can't take credit for being "on" him first or whatever since there were good reports about him in ST. He didn't even become a top 30 prospect until after April '24 for SoxProspects.  

    I think Moon is implying that hes been a fan of either Garcia brother for 5 years - because he was president of team jonafran, he of course would have been high on PW had he known about his existence, so hes giving himself credit for being 5 years ahead on PW. And I havent decided yet if thats fair or not. 

    Just now, drewski6 said:

    I think Moon is implying that hes been a fan of either Garcia brother for 5 years - because he was president of team jonafran, he of course would have been high on PW had he known about his existence, so hes giving himself credit for being 5 years ahead on PW. And I havent decided yet if thats fair or not. 

    I mean on one hand he was very much team Jonafran for a while and I do believe that he would have been at least very intrigued if someone 4-5 years ago was like you know he has a brother too who is also a sexy prospect

    On the other hand, they are actually 2 different people

    5 minutes ago, notin said:

    What about his teammate and co-Hall of Famer Dave Parker, who actually won the 1978 NL MVP award?  I bet you’re not him either…

    Stargell won in '79. 😫

    Thunder would have known that as he's a huge Buccos fan now. 

    3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

    On power potential:

    Campbell 

    A+ 558 SLG

    AA 582 SLG

    AAA 468 SLG

    20 HR in 2024

    Mayer

    A+ 524 SLG

    AA 480 SLG

    AAA 452

    8 HR in 2024, max was 13 in '22 and '23

    No matter what offensive stat you want to look at, Campbell was better offensively in MiLB than Mayer.

     

    Not sure what stats you want to go on for Mayer defensively.

    Here's his scouting report from SoxProspects: Instinctual defender with fluid actions. Looks like he is gliding on the field. Soft hands and solid footwork. Moves well and has plenty of range for shortstop. Confident defender; will take a flashy infield. Some long-term concerns about his ability to stick at shortstop as he matures. Organization appeared poised to get him some reps at third base midway through 2024, but injuries, including the one that eventually ended his season after July 30, effectively scuttled those plans. Potential above-average defender at short for the foreseeable future.

    His 981 Fldg Pct '25 at SS (Story is 973 right now) would be top 10 in MLB this year, but you'd rather slide him over to 1b. 🙃

     

    I agree that Campbell put up better numbers as a hitter than Mayer.  People think I hate Mayer but I just go by the stats.  The reason I consider Mayer a more prototypical 1B is his size compared to Campbell.  Campbell has a thin frame and Mayer looks to fill out even more as he ages.  Everyone has hammered on me about his power, you are right about his power not being materially different than Campbell. 

    On defense if you quote the .981 on 104 total chances does that render the 824 other plays in his Milb career as irrelevant?  His fielding on those was .951!!!  Should we dismiss approximately 89% of his plays at .951 and only count the 11% of the plays in 2025?  Maybe after 4 years of not being very good he's become a great defender suddenly.  I hope that is true but it seems unlikely.   

    Also, I've never thought dumping Bogaerts for Story was a wise move and his hitting seems to have proven my instinct correct but on defense he's always .984 or higher until the small sample this season.  Due to injuries it could be argued the other years were small samples too but if I have to choose between a guy with a 10 year fielding percentage of .979 who is temporarily at .973 versus a kid who put up .951 for 4 seasons in the minors and now is suddenly at .981 for just 104 plays, I'll take the veteran with a track record of success not the youngster who has a recent small sample of success.  If you want to pull Story for his hitting, I'm good with that but I would put Campbell at SS not Mayer.   All his slick looking play has still resulted in 4 years at .951.  Until he proves in a much bigger sample size that he is a .981 fielder, he should stay at AAA.   FYI.... Campbell at SS in the minors carries a .971 fielding percentage in an equally small sample size of 103 total chances   I'd rather have Bogaerts right now who is 32 (the same as Story) hitting at a league average rate and playing .979 defense which is his career average after 13 seasons.   

    Maybe body frame shouldn't be a reason to move Mayer to 1B and put Campbell at SS.   I guess performance should be the primary reason but with 70Million still owed Story, it seems like Story isn't going anywhere unless an injury happens.  Casas will be back in 2026 so Boston must also reconcile his future.  Putting any of the prospects at 1B seems like a bad move long-term.  Unless Casas can be packaged for another better 1B prospect (Boston needs to package Casas with a partially paid for Yoshida or Abreu/Rafaela) Casas will return and be the 1B of the future forcing one of the prospects into a limbo situation in 2026.  I think among Campbell, Anthony and Mayer based on past performance Mayer deserves to be the one in limbo not Campbell.  All these issues go away if Story disappears knowing that change will cost $70Million.




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