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    Checking In On Dave Dombrowski, Five Years After He Left The Red Sox


    Maddie Landis

    Boston's former President of Baseball Operations has taken the Phillies to a World Series, a Championship Series, and now a Divisional Series, but has yet to win the big one. How has he done it, and what can the Red Sox learn from his tenure?

    Image courtesy of Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

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    In September 2019, just over five years ago, the Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski. One year later, he was scooped up by the Phillies, who had gone nine years without making the playoffs and eight years without a winning record. In 2022, the Phillies made a run to the World Series, coming up short against the Houston Astros. Last year, they lost to the Diamondbacks in a heartbreaking NLCS. They faced yet another disappointment against the Mets in the NLDS this year. 

    The Phillies entered the 2024 season with about $248 million in payroll, banking on a championship run. They got off to a hot start, finishing June with a 55-29 record. The Phillies starting rotation was one of their greatest strengths. At the end of June, their starters led the league with a 2.96 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 11.4 fWAR. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been an elite one-two combo for years, with Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez strengthening the back end of the rotation.

    Through June, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman, and José Alvarado led the Phillies bullpen to a 3.34 ERA, 26.2 K%, and 3.10 FIP across 259.0 innings. Their 5.0 fWAR led baseball and played a critical role in the team's first-half success. 

    With a star-studded lineup led by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies bats were incredibly productive, slashing .259/.333/.421 through June. Trea Turner was a frontrunner for a batting title and Bryce Harper looked like he was on his way to his third National League MVP. Kyle Schwarber continued to mash the ball outside of the park. Alec Bohm took a step forward. 

    Because of their historic start, the Phillies sent a franchise record of eight players to the All-Star Game. Their rotation, bullpen, and batting lineup looked primed for an October run. Then the second half happened. Following the break, the Phillies ran a perfectly mediocre 33-33 record. Suárez hit the IL with lower back soreness and ran a 5.65 second-half ERA. Taijuan Walker, Koby Allard, and Tyler Phillips took Suárez’s spot in the rotation but failed to live up to his performance. Injuries to Bohm, Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner, and Harper cooled the lineup’s bats.

    The Phillies may as well have arrived at the postseason in a screeching ambulance, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. In the National League Division Series, the bottom of the lineup failed them. Bohm, Realmuto, Stott, Weston Wilson, and Brandon Marsh combined for a .089 batting average. The bullpen that had been a strength all year surrendered a whopping 11.37 ERA.

    Roster Construction/Free Agent Signings 

    The Phillies batting order features five players above the age of 30. The average age of their position players, 29.1 years, was the fourth-highest in baseball this season. Bryce Harper is a generational talent who’s headed for the Hall of Fame. Kyle Schwarber isn’t going to Cooperstown with Harper, but he’s a solid player with an impeccable postseason résumé.

    Trea Turner, Age 31, 11-year, $300-million Contract (2023-33)
    Although Trea Turner has put up 8.2 fWAR since joining the Phillies in 2023, eighth-most among shortstops, the size and length of his contract will likely end up making it a significant overpay. Since joining the Phillies in 2023, his 40 errors are the second-most in all of baseball, trailing only Elly De La Cruz, and he's put up -1.0 dWAR. Turner’s bat makes up for his defense, but the 115 wRC+ he's put up with the Phillies is a far cry from the 139 he put up in the three years before he joined the team. His bat went cold during the NLDS. He went 3-for-15, good for a .200 batting average, and went hitless during the deciding game of the series. 

    The Phillies will be paying Turner for nine more years, through his age 39 season.

    J.T. Realmuto, Age 33, 5-year, $115.5-million Contract (2021-25)
    From 2020 to 2023, J.T. Realmuto was the best catcher in baseball. Before the 2024 season, however, he was demoted to the fourth spot in MLB Network’s positional rankings, indicating that Father Time and overuse have caught up with him. Realmuto was sidelined from mid-June to late July following meniscus surgery. Realmuto was 27 years old when the Phillies originally traded for him, and he is now 33. Since 2015, he has played in 1,120 games, almost 200 more than the catcher in second place. Despite the demanding nature of his position, Realmuto rarely takes time off, partly because the backup catcher Garrett Stubbs does not warrant consistent playing time. Stubbs’ career slash line with the Phillies stands at a .222/.305/.324 slash line with a 25.2 K%, 79 wRC+, and 0.7 WAR across three seasons. Simply put, Stubbs is a massive downgrade from Realmuto. 

    From 2018 to 2022, Realmuto ran a 118 wRC+, fourth among qualified catchers. In 2023 and 2023, his wRC+ has fallen to 105, still above average, but no longer elite. More importantly, his once elite framing skills are no longer grading out well. Realmuto went 0-for-11 during the NLDS, but those struggles this postseason could be overlooked because he effectively guided Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez to quality starts.

    Realmuto also boasts unusual speed for a catcher, stealing 37 stolen bases between 2022 and 2023. This year he only managed to steal two total bases. Realmuto's meniscus surgery limited his running ability, and he likely wanted to avoid risking further injury to his knee. It will be telling to see whether Realmuto will regains his prowess in 2025 or continues to regress.

    Nick Castellanos, Age 32, 5-year, $100-million Contract (2022-26) 
    Since 2022, the Phillies have paid Nick Castellanos $60 million, and he’s provided them with 1.4 fWAR. At this point, he’s a sunk cost with a high chase rate and, according to Statcast, the worst defense in baseball. The Phillies were reportedly shopping Castallanos following the 2023 season.

    Together, the contracts of Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto, and Castellanos are worth $924.5 million. In Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS, those players combined for a total of 3 hits and 14 strikeouts in 36 at-bats. In Games 4, 5, and 6 of the 2022 World Series, Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, and Castellanos mustered 4 hits and 20 strikeouts in 41 at-bats. Philadelphia's aging, expensive core has pushed them to the World Series, but failed to bring home the ultimate prize.

    Dave Dombrowski, the architect of this Phillies team, loaded the roster with stars on mega-contracts, leaving little to no resources for depth improvements.

    In August 2022, the Phillies traded their highly-regarded catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe for Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh. This move created a massive hole in the Phillies' catching depth. The 24-year-old O’Hoppe looks like he could be a legitimate catcher, putting up 2.1 WAR in 2024. Solid catchers are a scarce commodity in baseball. Trading away a reputable catching prospect was a major oversight by Dave Dombrowski. The Phillies batting lineup features only two everyday homegrown players, infielders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott.

    Alec Bohm
    Alec Bohm had an excellent start to the season. He made the All-Star Game and made it to the semi-finals of the Home Run Derby. However, his wRC+ fell from 128 in the first half to 90 in the second half. Bohm also has trouble controlling his temper. On several occasions, video cameras have caught him breaking his bat or slamming his helmet after a strikeout. After getting caught attempting to stretch a single into a double during the NLDS, cameras caught him throwing a fit in the dugout. Bohm went 1-for-13 (.077) in the series.

    Bryson Stott 
    Stott saved the Phillies this postseason. If not for his two-RBI triple during Game 2, the Phillies likely would have been swept. Stott moved from shortstop to second when Turner joined the Phillies. Afer a breakout season with a 101 wRC+ in 2023, Stott regressed to 88 in 2024. A patient hitter who drives up pitch counts and draws walks, he was advised to take a more aggressive approach at the plate this year, but ended up swinging less often. Stott’s regression appears to be a typical sophomore slump and opponents modifying their approach.

    Stott’s sprint speed ranks in the 91st percentile at 29.1 feet per second, and he has stolen at least 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. He possesses solid plate discipline in a free-swinging lineup and plays solid defense at second. Stott also remains one of the cheaper players on the Phillies roster. Stott has a lot of upside, and if he can figure out a more complete approach at the plate, his defense and speed could make him a true all-around threat. 

    Conclusions
    As a team, the Phillies lack a consistent hitting approach. They collect non-competitive at-bats and chase pitches well outside the strike zone. Scouting reports show that they fail to adjust to soft stuff. The one-size-fits-all “see ball, swing” attitude isn’t working for the Phillies. Having the second-best record in baseball is inconsequential if the team can’t play small ball in the postseason. 

    The game has changed since Dave Dombrowski’s days of buying championships with the Marlins and Red Sox. Baseball’s youth movement has descended upon the league. Teams are investing heavily in player development, biomechanics, and advanced analytics. Playoff-caliber teams are made of homegrown players, some of whom are locked to long-term extensions. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and the Phillies entered the 2024 season with nearly the same roster as in 2022 and 2023. If Dombrowski chooses to field the same roster without any adjustments next year, the Phillies will fail again.  

    The Phillies find themselves in a precarious situation as their championship window slowly closes. Their roster is burdened by costly, immovable contracts. Their financial commitments limit their ability to address clear gaps in the lineup. Does this sound familiar? After the greatest season in franchise history, the Red Sox aimed for a repeat title run with an unchanged roster in 2019, only to fall short of the playoffs. Dombrowski left the Red Sox with an aging, costly, inflexible roster. Ownership faced challenging decisions and parted ways with beloved players. Sometimes, it felt like they were taking one step forward and three steps back as they attempted to dig themselves out of the hole.

    In sharp contrast to Dave Dombrowski's struggles with the Phillies, the Red Sox are well-positioned for a sustainable future thanks to their strong farm system and successful player development. However, fans are tired of the continuous rebuilding mindset from ownership. Prospect hoarding doesn’t win championships. The Red Sox have a convincing core to build around, money to spend on free agents, and depth to trade from. It’s time for ownership to turn all that potential into action.

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    Featured Comments

    16 minutes ago, notin said:

    If you’re that desperate to pervade the false narrative hidden by semantics.

     

    Henry might not be the best person to work for.  He might be insane and impulsive.  I don’t know.  But the 2016!front office departures were not his doing 

    I'm not desperate and don't even believe the narrative. Does that sentence work for you? Has he replaced the GM/CBO/guy everyone here thinks is in charge every 4 years since Theo left? 

    1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

    I'm not desperate and don't even believe the narrative. Does that sentence work for you? Has he replaced the GM/CBO/guy everyone here thinks is in charge every 4 years since Theo left? 

    Fine.  My only point was to dispel the myth that Henry fires his person in charge every 4 years.   Again, twice.

    And I stand by Bloom deserving it.  I think DD probably did as well, but I can certainly understand and recognize the validity in arguments that he didn’t..

    3 minutes ago, notin said:

    Fine.  My only point was to dispel the myth that Henry fires his person in charge every 4 years.   Again, twice.

    And I stand by Bloom deserving it.  I think DD probably did as well, but I can certainly understand and recognize the validity in arguments that he didn’t..

    I don't think he's going to automatically look at his watch in three years and go: TIME TO GET RID OF BRESLOW! He may fire him sooner. He may take another year. He may keep him on. Who knows? 

    2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    I don't think he's going to automatically look at his watch in three years and go: TIME TO GET RID OF BRESLOW! He may fire him sooner. He may take another year. He may keep him on. Who knows? 

    Like I said, I have no idea how insane or impulsive he is…

    39 minutes ago, notin said:

    If you’re that desperate to pervade the false narrative hidden by semantics.

     

    Henry might not be the best person to work for.  He might be insane and impulsive.  I don’t know.  But the 2016!front office departures were not his doing 

    Are you actually trying to claim that Henry had nothing to do with Cherington leaving? 

    That he had no idea Ben would quit upon learning of his replacement/demotion?  It was a total shock? 

    30 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

    The fact that Dave Dombrowski was fired was very telling. 

    Not always, but typically when you are very high up the corporate ladder you're fired behind closed doors and offered the chance to retire/step down/move on etc etc. 

    To me this suggests, he had strong feelings towards John Henry's demands for budgetary restriction.

    Oh to be a fly on some walls back in 2019.  Some of the conversations that may have transpired that will never come to light would be truly interesting to hear. 

    I'd like to imagine this one happened. 

    "Dave, he won't sign a team friendly deal, and it's going to put us under budget, you need to find the best deal for Mookie Betts you can"

    "John, you're crazy, no one in their right mind would try to trade Mookie Betts without honestly trying to reach an agreement first.  I'm not going to trade you, you're going to have to fire me" 

    The thing is, there was a report that DD was all set to trade Betts, midseason 2019, but the Sox started winning, and they decided to give 2019 a shot. 

    I'm certain no GM would want to trade Betts, so I'm assuming Bloom was forced to do it, or told He'd have to cut $45-50M from the budget, elsewhere.

    I think not being able to bring Kimbrel & Kelly back in 2019, and not given a penny to even try to replace them, might have been the beginning of the friction. I do think DD knew the Betts trade was on the winter horizon, and could likely have been the final straw in the relationship between JH and DD.

    I honestly cannot imagine DD running the Sox under the 2020 and 2021 budgets handed to Bloom. I'm not saying he'd have quit, but there would have been some major acrimony that would likely have led to a (not much)  later firing or retirement.

    2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    Are you actually trying to claim that Henry had nothing to do with Cherington leaving? 

    That he had no idea Ben would quit upon learning of his replacement/demotion?  It was a total shock? 

    There is an in between possibility: they knew he might quit, but hoped he'd stay and work under DD.

    1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

    There is an in between possibility: they knew he might quit, but hoped he'd stay and work under DD.

    I think Henry knew there was a very strong possibility he would quit.  Cherington had been in the organization many years so Henry knew him well and would have a good idea how he would take it.  

    5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    Are you actually trying to claim that Henry had nothing to do with Cherington leaving? 

    That he had no idea Ben would quit upon learning of his replacement/demotion?  It was a total shock? 

    Come on.  We suspect Ben was demoted/stripped of responsibilities, but we really don’t know if that’s the case or not.  Or what his responsibilities would have been.  You’re speculating on his role and then deciding whether or not he liked it.  Maybe he left because of a new, reduced role.  Maybe he left because he didn’t like Dombrowski.  Lots of speculation here.

    It’s either:

     

    1. Cherington was to have his role reduced, possibly for reasons related to performance, or

    2. Dombrowski is a control freak who insists on handling everything himself.  
     

    There are reasons a to believe either or both scenarios…

     

    6 minutes ago, notin said:

    Come on.  We suspect Ben was demoted/stripped of responsibilities, but we really don’t know if that’s the case or not.  Or what his responsibilities would have been.  You’re speculating on his role and then deciding whether or not he liked it.  Maybe he left because of a new, reduced role.  Maybe he left because he didn’t like Dombrowski.  Lots of speculation here.

    It’s either:

     

    1. Cherington was to have his role reduced, possibly for reading tested to performance, or

    2. Dombrowski is a control freak who insists on handling everything himself.  
     

    There are reasons a to believe either or both scenarios…

     

    What we know is that Cherington quit immediately. 

    Of course his role in personnel was going to be drastically reduced.  You don't bring in Dave Dombrowksi to just kind of oversee things.  That's not his profile.  He was a decision maker before joining the Sox and he's been a decision maker since.       

    I think Occam's Razor applies here.

    The situation when Dombrowski took charge in 2016 was not so different than it is today.  A need to beef up the bullpen and get a top of the line starting pitcher. Dombrowski made that his top priority. And the results were apparent.  Now, Breslow is faced with a similar scenario. As is the reclusive owner. It is pretty clear what is needed. Now get it done. 

    18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    I think Henry knew there was a very strong possibility he would quit.  Cherington had been in the organization many years so Henry knew him well and would have a good idea how he would take it.  

    I agree. DD was taking control from him. Nobody in charge likes that.

    This does not mean JH and others wanted Ben to quit, so I don't see it as being the same as firing somebody, but if they were pretty certain he'd quit, I can see thinking there is little difference.

    10 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

    The situation when Dombrowski took charge in 2016 was not so different than it is today.  A need to beef up the bullpen and get a top of the line starting pitcher. Dombrowski made that his top priority. And the results were apparent.  Now, Breslow is faced with a similar scenario. As is the reclusive owner. It is pretty clear what is needed. Now get it done. 

    Will Brez get the financial support DD was given? Does he have the freedom to trade several top prospects?

    Yes, the situation is much different than today, but how different is knd of unknown, right now.

    3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    What we know is that Cherington quit immediately. 

    Of course his role in personnel was going to be drastically reduced.  You don't bring in Dave Dombrowksi to just kind of oversee things.  That's not his profile.  He was a decision maker before joining the Sox and he's been a decision maker since.       

    I think Occam's Razor applies here.

    I think you might have lost sight of your original point (Henry fires ‘em every 4 years) or you have perfectly misapplied Occam’s Razors and given me something the exact opposite, which I suppose would be Occam’s Magical Hair Growth Tonic*.  
     

    If Henry wanted Cherington gone, he wouldn’t hatch some plan involving hiring a control freak to usurp all Ben’s responsibilities.  His Occsm’s Razor would be to simply fire Ben…

     

    *And Dessert Topping

    6 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

    This is my exact point, this story was followed with scrutiny in which I've never seen before, so we have nothing to compare it to.

    Here's what I do know, I know what it's like to hire someone, I own a business and I hire people all the time.  I put out an ad and people apply.  In my experience when people apply for a job, they're typically interested in accepting it, although I have offered people a position who have ultimately declined, it happens. 

    I would imagine, that if I went out and offered a position to people who already had a job, I'm going to get a lot more no's. I'm going to run into people who are happy where they are.  I would imagine that if I'm asking people to move their entire families to the other side of the country when they already have a job, I'm going to run into a lot more no's.  

    Imagine you're in a sales position.  I'd imagine you end up closing a lot more deals where people COME TO YOU, rather than going out and trying to solicit business.  It's the nature of the beast, there are only 30 of these jobs on planet earth so of course you're going to have a wish list of guys you want, and I think it's natural that some are going to decline you if you're soliciting them. 

    Think about this, was there ever a time when the open search for a GM/POBO was ever covered like this? When LA/NY/KC/DET/MIA/HOUS/MINN etc etc. went out and hired a new front office executive over the last couple decades were countless stories put out about every person they talked to and offered an interview to and was declined? I can't think of one, we have zero clue how normal what transpired was.  

    But the media certainly had a narrative, and I don't think they really know either......so I didn't buy it. 

    As I’ve said many times. With the 12th pick in the 2024 HOBO draft the Red Sox select Brez .

    47 minutes ago, notin said:

    I think you might have lost sight of your original point (Henry fires ‘em every 4 years) or you have perfectly misapplied Occam’s Razors and given me something the exact opposite, which I suppose would be Occam’s Magical Hair Growth Tonic*.  
     

    If Henry wanted Cherington gone, he wouldn’t hatch some plan involving hiring a control freak to usurp all Ben’s responsibilities.  His Occsm’s Razor would be to simply fire Ben…

     

    *And Dessert Topping

    So kind of JH that he didn’t actually fire Cherington, but stripped him of any power, and then he quits. Forgone conclusion to me. 

    5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

    This does not mean JH and others wanted Ben to quit, so I don't see it as being the same as firing somebody, but if they were pretty certain he'd quit, I can see thinking there is little difference.

    I dunno why, but this post made me think of offering Bogaerts a one-year extension, when the other five best shortstops on the market were getting half-decades plus at new market value.

    Maybe it was the same people in charge pulling the levers -- unless we all still believe Bloom was just an isolated D-bag (not Diamondback).

    26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

    I dunno why, but this post made me think of offering Bogaerts a one-year extension, when the other five best shortstops on the market were getting half-decades plus at new market value.

    Maybe it was the same people in charge pulling the levers -- unless we all still believe Bloom was just an isolated D-bag (not Diamondback).

    I'm not sure what this means. 

    1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

    I dunno why, but this post made me think of offering Bogaerts a one-year extension, when the other five best shortstops on the market were getting half-decades plus at new market value.

    Maybe it was the same people in charge pulling the levers -- unless we all still believe Bloom was just an isolated D-bag (not Diamondback).

    I’ll go with all of the above.

    16 hours ago, notin said:

    It’s either:

     

    1. Cherington was to have his role reduced, possibly for reasons related to performance, or

    2. Dombrowski is a control freak who insists on handling everything himself.  
     

    There are reasons a to believe either or both scenarios…

     

    #2 was also speculated by some media members as a main reason Dombro was eventually canned...

    ... which, if true, may explain why Bloomslow may be directed by the lifers in the front office to shape recent rosters in their own images (where lifers = lifeless).

    11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

    I'm not sure what this means. 

    What he's saying is it's that there's a common thread between the Red Sox "offer" to Cherington and their "offer" to Bogaerts (and Lester before him).  And the latest of course is their reported "offers" to some personnel to stay on at reduced pay. 

    It's just how they roll.  They have their own way of expressing how much they appreciate your efforts and want you around. 

    13 hours ago, notin said:

    I think you might have lost sight of your original point (Henry fires ‘em every 4 years) or you have perfectly misapplied Occam’s Razors and given me something the exact opposite, which I suppose would be Occam’s Magical Hair Growth Tonic*.  
     

    If Henry wanted Cherington gone, he wouldn’t hatch some plan involving hiring a control freak to usurp all Ben’s responsibilities.  His Occsm’s Razor would be to simply fire Ben…

     

    *And Dessert Topping

    "He wouldn’t hatch some plan involving hiring a control freak to usurp all Ben’s responsibilities."  

    Man, that is a really unique way to describe DD taking over Ben's job. 

    Anyway, from now on I will make it a point to say Henry replaces his CBO every 4 years.    

    6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    What he's saying is it's that there's a common thread between the Red Sox "offer" to Cherington and their "offer" to Bogaerts (and Lester before him).  And the latest of course is their reported "offers" to some personnel to stay on at reduced pay. 

    It's just how they roll.

    JH could have just let Bloom just stay on after hiring another HOBO, and let him do what he did best, which was pick up trash in the stands at Fenway.

    45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    "He wouldn’t hatch some plan involving hiring a control freak to usurp all Ben’s responsibilities."  

    Man, that is a really unique way to describe DD taking over Ben's job. 

    Anyway, from now on I will make it a point to say Henry replaces his CBO every 4 years.    

    And all it took was a simple mention of Occam’s Magical Hair Growth Tonic and Dessert Topping…

    1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

    #2 was also speculated by some media members as a main reason Dombro was eventually canned...

    ... which, if true, may explain why Bloomslow may be directed by the lifers in the front office to shape recent rosters in their own images (where lifers = lifeless).

    If DD was fired for being too megalomaniacal, it’s certainly not a reason he shared with the rather docile, timid Bloom.

     

    Bloom showed us that while the meek might inherit the Earth, they’re still going to get fired for running it improperly…

    Epstein - gone - 2011

    Cherington - gone - 2015

    Dombrowski - gone - 2019

    Bloom - gone - 2023

    (4 championships among them)

    Leave it to the Red Sox to produce such a bizarre numerical pattern even in the midst of being successful... 

     

    30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

    Epstein - gone - 2011

    Cherington - gone - 2015

    Dombrowski - gone - 2019

    Bloom - gone - 2023

    (4 championships among them)

    Leave it to the Red Sox to produce such a bizarre numerical pattern even in the midst of being successful... 

     

    How is that so many Red Sox leaders suck so badly enough in the eyes of John Henry that they need to be fired -- and almost immediately after they all land similar jobs elsewhere in the industry?

    After awhile, even a megalomaniac staring down into a pond has to recognize the watered-down image staring back.




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