Checking In On Dave Dombrowski, Five Years After He Left The Red Sox

In September 2019, just over five years ago, the Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski. One year later, he was scooped up by the Phillies, who had gone nine years without making the playoffs and eight years without a winning record. In 2022, the Phillies made a run to the World Series, coming up short against the Houston Astros. Last year, they lost to the Diamondbacks in a heartbreaking NLCS. They faced yet another disappointment against the Mets in the NLDS this year. 

The Phillies entered the 2024 season with about $248 million in payroll, banking on a championship run. They got off to a hot start, finishing June with a 55-29 record. The Phillies starting rotation was one of their greatest strengths. At the end of June, their starters led the league with a 2.96 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 11.4 fWAR. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been an elite one-two combo for years, with Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez strengthening the back end of the rotation.

Through June, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman, and José Alvarado led the Phillies bullpen to a 3.34 ERA, 26.2 K%, and 3.10 FIP across 259.0 innings. Their 5.0 fWAR led baseball and played a critical role in the team's first-half success. 

With a star-studded lineup led by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies bats were incredibly productive, slashing .259/.333/.421 through June. Trea Turner was a frontrunner for a batting title and Bryce Harper looked like he was on his way to his third National League MVP. Kyle Schwarber continued to mash the ball outside of the park. Alec Bohm took a step forward. 

Because of their historic start, the Phillies sent a franchise record of eight players to the All-Star Game. Their rotation, bullpen, and batting lineup looked primed for an October run. Then the second half happened. Following the break, the Phillies ran a perfectly mediocre 33-33 record. Suárez hit the IL with lower back soreness and ran a 5.65 second-half ERA. Taijuan Walker, Koby Allard, and Tyler Phillips took Suárez’s spot in the rotation but failed to live up to his performance. Injuries to Bohm, Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner, and Harper cooled the lineup’s bats.

The Phillies may as well have arrived at the postseason in a screeching ambulance, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. In the National League Division Series, the bottom of the lineup failed them. Bohm, Realmuto, Stott, Weston Wilson, and Brandon Marsh combined for a .089 batting average. The bullpen that had been a strength all year surrendered a whopping 11.37 ERA.

Roster Construction/Free Agent Signings 

The Phillies batting order features five players above the age of 30. The average age of their position players, 29.1 years, was the fourth-highest in baseball this season. Bryce Harper is a generational talent who’s headed for the Hall of Fame. Kyle Schwarber isn’t going to Cooperstown with Harper, but he’s a solid player with an impeccable postseason résumé.

Trea Turner, Age 31, 11-year, $300-million Contract (2023-33)
Although Trea Turner has put up 8.2 fWAR since joining the Phillies in 2023, eighth-most among shortstops, the size and length of his contract will likely end up making it a significant overpay. Since joining the Phillies in 2023, his 40 errors are the second-most in all of baseball, trailing only Elly De La Cruz, and he's put up -1.0 dWAR. Turner’s bat makes up for his defense, but the 115 wRC+ he's put up with the Phillies is a far cry from the 139 he put up in the three years before he joined the team. His bat went cold during the NLDS. He went 3-for-15, good for a .200 batting average, and went hitless during the deciding game of the series. 

The Phillies will be paying Turner for nine more years, through his age 39 season.

J.T. Realmuto, Age 33, 5-year, $115.5-million Contract (2021-25)
From 2020 to 2023, J.T. Realmuto was the best catcher in baseball. Before the 2024 season, however, he was demoted to the fourth spot in MLB Network’s positional rankings, indicating that Father Time and overuse have caught up with him. Realmuto was sidelined from mid-June to late July following meniscus surgery. Realmuto was 27 years old when the Phillies originally traded for him, and he is now 33. Since 2015, he has played in 1,120 games, almost 200 more than the catcher in second place. Despite the demanding nature of his position, Realmuto rarely takes time off, partly because the backup catcher Garrett Stubbs does not warrant consistent playing time. Stubbs’ career slash line with the Phillies stands at a .222/.305/.324 slash line with a 25.2 K%, 79 wRC+, and 0.7 WAR across three seasons. Simply put, Stubbs is a massive downgrade from Realmuto. 

From 2018 to 2022, Realmuto ran a 118 wRC+, fourth among qualified catchers. In 2023 and 2023, his wRC+ has fallen to 105, still above average, but no longer elite. More importantly, his once elite framing skills are no longer grading out well. Realmuto went 0-for-11 during the NLDS, but those struggles this postseason could be overlooked because he effectively guided Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez to quality starts.

Realmuto also boasts unusual speed for a catcher, stealing 37 stolen bases between 2022 and 2023. This year he only managed to steal two total bases. Realmuto's meniscus surgery limited his running ability, and he likely wanted to avoid risking further injury to his knee. It will be telling to see whether Realmuto will regains his prowess in 2025 or continues to regress.

Nick Castellanos, Age 32, 5-year, $100-million Contract (2022-26) 
Since 2022, the Phillies have paid Nick Castellanos $60 million, and he’s provided them with 1.4 fWAR. At this point, he’s a sunk cost with a high chase rate and, according to Statcast, the worst defense in baseball. The Phillies were reportedly shopping Castallanos following the 2023 season.

Together, the contracts of Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto, and Castellanos are worth $924.5 million. In Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS, those players combined for a total of 3 hits and 14 strikeouts in 36 at-bats. In Games 4, 5, and 6 of the 2022 World Series, Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, and Castellanos mustered 4 hits and 20 strikeouts in 41 at-bats. Philadelphia's aging, expensive core has pushed them to the World Series, but failed to bring home the ultimate prize.

Dave Dombrowski, the architect of this Phillies team, loaded the roster with stars on mega-contracts, leaving little to no resources for depth improvements.

In August 2022, the Phillies traded their highly-regarded catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe for Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh. This move created a massive hole in the Phillies' catching depth. The 24-year-old O’Hoppe looks like he could be a legitimate catcher, putting up 2.1 WAR in 2024. Solid catchers are a scarce commodity in baseball. Trading away a reputable catching prospect was a major oversight by Dave Dombrowski. The Phillies batting lineup features only two everyday homegrown players, infielders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott.

Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm had an excellent start to the season. He made the All-Star Game and made it to the semi-finals of the Home Run Derby. However, his wRC+ fell from 128 in the first half to 90 in the second half. Bohm also has trouble controlling his temper. On several occasions, video cameras have caught him breaking his bat or slamming his helmet after a strikeout. After getting caught attempting to stretch a single into a double during the NLDS, cameras caught him throwing a fit in the dugout. Bohm went 1-for-13 (.077) in the series.

Bryson Stott 
Stott saved the Phillies this postseason. If not for his two-RBI triple during Game 2, the Phillies likely would have been swept. Stott moved from shortstop to second when Turner joined the Phillies. Afer a breakout season with a 101 wRC+ in 2023, Stott regressed to 88 in 2024. A patient hitter who drives up pitch counts and draws walks, he was advised to take a more aggressive approach at the plate this year, but ended up swinging less often. Stott’s regression appears to be a typical sophomore slump and opponents modifying their approach.

Stott’s sprint speed ranks in the 91st percentile at 29.1 feet per second, and he has stolen at least 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. He possesses solid plate discipline in a free-swinging lineup and plays solid defense at second. Stott also remains one of the cheaper players on the Phillies roster. Stott has a lot of upside, and if he can figure out a more complete approach at the plate, his defense and speed could make him a true all-around threat. 

Conclusions
As a team, the Phillies lack a consistent hitting approach. They collect non-competitive at-bats and chase pitches well outside the strike zone. Scouting reports show that they fail to adjust to soft stuff. The one-size-fits-all “see ball, swing” attitude isn’t working for the Phillies. Having the second-best record in baseball is inconsequential if the team can’t play small ball in the postseason. 

The game has changed since Dave Dombrowski’s days of buying championships with the Marlins and Red Sox. Baseball’s youth movement has descended upon the league. Teams are investing heavily in player development, biomechanics, and advanced analytics. Playoff-caliber teams are made of homegrown players, some of whom are locked to long-term extensions. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and the Phillies entered the 2024 season with nearly the same roster as in 2022 and 2023. If Dombrowski chooses to field the same roster without any adjustments next year, the Phillies will fail again.  

The Phillies find themselves in a precarious situation as their championship window slowly closes. Their roster is burdened by costly, immovable contracts. Their financial commitments limit their ability to address clear gaps in the lineup. Does this sound familiar? After the greatest season in franchise history, the Red Sox aimed for a repeat title run with an unchanged roster in 2019, only to fall short of the playoffs. Dombrowski left the Red Sox with an aging, costly, inflexible roster. Ownership faced challenging decisions and parted ways with beloved players. Sometimes, it felt like they were taking one step forward and three steps back as they attempted to dig themselves out of the hole.

In sharp contrast to Dave Dombrowski's struggles with the Phillies, the Red Sox are well-positioned for a sustainable future thanks to their strong farm system and successful player development. However, fans are tired of the continuous rebuilding mindset from ownership. Prospect hoarding doesn’t win championships. The Red Sox have a convincing core to build around, money to spend on free agents, and depth to trade from. It’s time for ownership to turn all that potential into action.