Boston Red Sox Offseason Target: 1B Luis Arráez

Since the start of the 2023 season, the Boston Red Sox have operated under the belief that Triston Casas was their first baseman of the present and future. Unfortunately, injuries in 2024 and 2025 have raised doubt, and the team now appears unwilling to commit to Casas in 2026 as he rehabs from a torn left patellar tendon.

With there being more than a few options available on the free-agent market this offseason, it would be wise for the Red Sox to at least do some perfunctory checking in with various players. Admittedly, however, when you look at the list of available first basemen, it gets rather thin after the top shelf. While the obvious big catch of all first basemen will be New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso, the other big names that stand out are Josh Naylor, Munetaka Murakami, and Cody Bellinger.

Beyond them, there is a vastly different option available—one who is viewed as one of the more divisive players in baseball as his style of play feels more and more archaic by the year. Known for his lack of power and low exit velocities, contact-maven Luis Arráez could be in play for Boston depending on how the market falls.

With a potential bidding war looming for Alonso along with Seattle already planning to go all-in on retaining Naylor, Arráez could be a cheaper option for the Red Sox to plug in at first (and, potentially, second base).

The Good:

Right away, we can immediately state that Arráez is not someone to miss time. Since making his major league debut in 2019 (and excluding the COVID shortened 2020 season), there have only been two seasons where he has played less than 140 games: 2019 and 2021. Since 2022, he has played the following amount of games each season; 144, 147, 150, and 154 this past year. This would be an improvement alone, as the Red Sox have dealt with injuries across their infield these past few seasons, especially at first base with Casas.

And along with playing first base, Arráez has also played quite a bit of second base in his career, making the All-Star team in 2023 with the Miami Marlins as a second baseman. Such versatility would allow the Red Sox to mix and match their lineup depending on the starting pitcher by plugging Arráez in at either position depending on the need.

Where he would be most useful, however, is at the plate. Despite having one of the lowest exit velocities in the game and impossibly-low barrel rates, Arráez rarely misses when he swings. His ability to put the ball in play nearly every at-bat is something that could be extremely useful, especially during a low-scoring playoff series. In 2025, his whiff rate sat at just 5.3% and his strikeout rate was 3.1%, numbers that placed him in the 100th percentile league-wide.

It gets even more impressive when you look at his career. In 3244 career at-bats, Arráez has struck out only 215 times, a feat that feels almost impossible with the way pitchers can rack up strikeouts in today’s game. The left-handed hitter has also displayed some slugging capabilities, though more in the sense of gap-to-gap thanks in part to his 30 doubles this past season. And while he may not hit the ball hard, Arráez possesses perhaps the best bat control in all of baseball—his squared-up percentage in 2025 was 42.6%, also placing him in the 100th percentile.

Currently, Arráez is projected to earn a contract worth around $25 million over a period of two years, according to MLB Trade Rumors and The Athletic. There's no doubt there will be teams who will look to him as a starting first base option, especially once Alonso, Naylor and Ryan O’Hearn sign elsewhere. If the Red Sox could convince him to come to the east coast, he could provide a steady presence in the lineup.

The Bad:

Let’s discuss the biggest issue right away. Despite an incredible bat-to-ball skillset, Arráez has a clear lack of power when it comes to his game. While the first baseman can provide doubles and the occasional home run (he had six last season), when you think of a first baseman you think of a power hitter. Of course, should he slide back to second base, the amount of power you need is more negotiable, but it's still more than what he provides.

As mentioned previously, Arráez ranked near the bottom of the league in exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate, the latter two sitting in the lowest percentile at 1.1% and 16.7%, respectively. His bat speed was also nonexistent, averaging 62.6 mph this past season, the slowest swing speed in the sport.

And despite a season that ended a stat line of .292/.327/.392, Arráez saw his OPS drop for the third straight season as it went from .861 in 2023 to .739 in 2024 down to .719 this past season. He also finished with an OPS+ of 99, the first time in his career it was ever below 100.

There is a chance that a ballpark change could see a slight increase in power for Arráez, as in his career, he’s driven balls in the air to the opposite field 25% of the time and could pepper the Green Monster with his hits. In 2025 alone, he went to the opposite field on all batted balls 38.2% of the time. Despite that, his already low home run numbers would drop even more. Had Arráez played every game at Fenway Park this season, he'd have produced just two home runs. Of course, he would only play 81 games at home and there’s no telling how many home runs he could hit away from Fenway, but the expectation for Arráez would be more towards putting the ball in play and aiming for doubles.

Defensively, he also just isn’t very good. He had one of the lowest Outs Above Average at the position at -9 and his Fielding Run Value was at -5 this season. While he only committed one error at first base this season, he isn’t the defensive stalwart the team would like to have manning first base.

The Verdict:

Personally, I like a player who can get on base and not strike out. Despite the importance of having high-OPS guys in the middle of lineups, I still feel a team needs one or two guys who put the ball in play often and produce high averages. Unfortunately for Arráez, I don’t think he would work out as a first baseman with the Red Sox.

As mentioned before, first basemen are expected to be power hitters and Arráez clearly does not fit that mold. And even if you were to slot him in at second base instead, $12-15 million a year for a second baseman is a lot when you could realistically split the position between Marcelo Mayer and Romy González for a lot less money.

With guys like Alonso and Naylor available who have shown the ability to hit for a lote more power in their careers, it would make more sense for the Red Sox to try and sign one of them first, and should they fail in that endeavor have Arráez as their backup plan. If the Red Sox could get him to sign a pillow contract—maybe a one-year deal with a mutual option—to prove he’s better than the hitter he was in 2025 (first time in his career he would be considered below league average), I don’t see why they shouldn’t offer it, especially if they invest the money they saved into upgrading other parts of the lineup.

But for right now, with bigger names available and the options currently in-house, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Red Sox to invest a lot of money into a league-average hitter who’s really good at just putting the ball in play. Despite his contact skills, it isn’t worth the price he’s going likely to command, especially after the Red Sox lacked power in their lineup for most of 2025.