Boston Red Sox Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Triston Casas

[Ben Lofy]

It’s impossible to talk about Triston Casas without mentioning injuries. Boston’s first-round pick in 2018 and a once-highly touted prospect, Casas has largely faded into the background of the Red Sox organization. 

It’s not without reason. He has played just one full season since his debut, and with last season’s emergence of Willson Contreras as the team’s primary first baseman and most prominent power bat, it’s hard to see where Casas fits.

But when Casas has played, he’s displayed the power he advertised as a prospect, and has been a productive hitter. He debuted in 2022, earning a late-season call-up. He played in 27 games, and while his .197 average doesn’t scream success, he had flashes of brilliance. Five home runs, 12 RBIs and a .766 OPS isn’t too shabby for his first month of MLB action.

He played 132 games in 2023, compiling an impressive first full season and finishing with 24 homers, good for second on the team. He tallied 113 hits and a solid .263 average to go alongside a .856 OPS. There was plenty of reason to be optimistic and believe that the Red Sox had finally found their first baseman, a position in limbo since Kevin Youkilis in the late 2000s. 

After an excellent start to 2024, that hope came crashing down when he suffered torn rib cartilage. He returned in late August and finished with a respectable line given his 99 missed games. He hit 13 homers and drove in 32 runs to the tune of a .241 batting average and a .800 OPS. 

But after the late-season return, Casas struggled to get back on the field. It took just 29 games in 2025 for him to suffer another injury, this one a ruptured left patellar tendon that took him out for the rest of the season. 

In April 2026, disaster struck again. While rehabbing his knee, Casas suffered an abdominal/intercostal strain that landed him on the 60-day IL. He ramped up his recovery, but in July underwent arthroscopic surgery for a left wrist injury, which sidelined him for the season.

His luckless career has been derailed by near-constant injuries, but Casas is expected to return to the field sometime in 2027. However, his position has been filled by Contreras, and it remains to be seen if Casas will be able to return to his 2023 level of production. If he can, Boston would greatly benefit from having another consistent bat to deploy at DH or off the bench.

Triston Casas' Arbitration Summary

Age on Opening Day 2027: 27

Service time: 4 years, 32 days

2022 Salary: $199,226

2023 Salary: $732,500

2024 Salary: $760,000

2025 Salary: $774,000

2026 Salary: $1,610,000

2027 Salary (Projection): $1.7 million

Red Sox 1B Depth:

Willson Contreras – MLB
Mickey Gasper – MLB/Triple-A
Nick Sogard – Triple-A

Why the Red Sox Should Tender Casas A Contract

Casas is only making $1.7 million this season, a drop in the bucket for the Red Sox's payroll And let’s not forget that Casas was a real threat in 2023. He’s cheap, he can produce, and there’s little pressure for him to come back like there was before Boston acquired Contreras. 

This past season proved that the organization need some more thump in the lineup, and there’s a lack of true power on the open market this offseason. Casas can fit that mold, and with Contreras entering his age-35 season, Casas could still be a first base option if he can return to form. 

Why the Red Sox Should Non-Tender Casas

Let’s face it: Casas can’t stay on the field, and even if he’s able to, Boston has found its first baseman in Contreras. 

Casas' strikeout rate has never dipped below 24.1%, and by the time he’s fit to play, it’ll have been four years since his last full season. It’s discouraging to say the least, and that isn’t considering another freak injury that he’s prone to. With his cheap contract and decent upside, Casas could be a trade chip should the Red Sox look to close the book on his injury-filled tenure without going down the non-tender path.

Prediction

There’s no real downside to tendering Casas a contract, other than him continuing to occupy a 40-man roster spot, especially given the incredibly cheap price tag. If, and it feels like a big if, he can return to his 2023 form, he can be a real weapon off the bench for a team that is searching for power wherever it can be found. 

There’s little expectation for him to return to that form, of course, and he’ll benefit from having the space to rehab with such little pressure. In the event that he can’t return to form, the Red Sox will only be $1.7 million in the hole and can cut him with little repercussion. 

Perhaps this is the nostalgia talking, but the Red Sox should tender him a contract. The upside is there, and the price is too low to pass up.

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[mvp 78]

He has 3 options left and won't make much more than 1.6M in ARB. Seems likely that they'll retain him until he can no longer swing a bat. 

[JoeBrady]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He has 3 options left and won't make much more than 1.6M in ARB. Seems likely that they'll retain him until he can no longer swing a bat. 

IMO, it will be at least one more year.  And it is very possible he becomes a low-end trade chip.  He needs to demonstrate health and hitting, and won't bring the return he would've 3 years ago, but such is life.  I think someone will be looking for a LH 1B, even as a throw-in on a larger deal.

[notin]

With Casas the issue isn’t money or options, but whether or not his potential is worth more than a 40 man roster spot.  While it seems easy to make the call right now that he is, given the number of openings coming soon with the free agents and the low ceiling journeyman currently on the roster, that can change quickly, especially if (as anticipated) there is a Rule 5 draft this year and the Sox have decisions to make regarding Mikey Romero, Hayden Mullins, Blake Wehunt, Braiden Ward, Brooks Bannon, and Noah Song…