Why Payton Tolle Won't be Considered for Red Sox's Opening Day Rotation

[Brandon Glick]

Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray are locks to toe the rubber in the first two games of the Boston Red Sox's season, barring injury or a subsequent addition. And, barring a trade involving Brayan Bello, the young right-hander should be a shoo-in to handle the final game of the opening series against the Cincinnati Reds.

That's three of the five spots in Alex Cora's starting rotation accounted for, and if you're like me and a strong believer in the Red Sox's faith in Johan Oviedo after dealing Jhostynxon Garcia (and more) for the hulking starter, you're just about ready to hand him the fourth spot. With the amount of depth the front office has accumulated over the past few years, that should create a fierce competition for the No. 5 starter gig in spring training.

I've already gone on the record to suggest that Kutter Crawford is my personal pick as the most-likely candidate to emerge victorious in that competition, at least for the first few months of the season. What he lacks in upside he makes up for in pitch-ability and durability, so long as he can overcome the wrist and knee injuries that held him out from participating in the 2025 campaign. Even if he doesn't strike your fancy, though, there's no shortage of options to choose from. Patrick Sandoval, who also missed all of last year with an elbow injury, brings a career 4.01 ERA and deep six-pitch arsenal to the mix. Connelly Early was impressive enough in his first big-league cup of coffee that he earned the nod in Game 3 of the Wild Card Round. Kyle Harrison, a fellow southpaw who arrived via the ill-advised Rafael Devers trade, has top-prospect pedigree and flashed in his limited exposure in Boston last year. Prospects David Sandlin and Tyler Uberstine are both knocking on the major-league door and already own places on the 40-man roster.

That's a ridiculous amount of depth, which is a testament to what Craig Breslow and company have been building. You'll notice, though, that I didn't include Payton Tolle among that loaded crop of contenders, despite the fact that he made his MLB debut at the end of last season and flashed his immense upside in a few impressive appearances. The reason for that is simply: Tolle isn't ready to handle a full-time role in the big-league rotation yet.

Now, that's not meant to be a slight against the 23-year-old southpaw. What he brings to the table — a 6'6" frame, elite extension, and a high-90s fastball — can't be taught. There's a reason he was fast-tracked from High-A to MLB in his first professional season, but that also means that he's thrown all of 58 1/3 innings above A-ball in his career. His four-seamer was simply too dominant for minor-league batters to stand a chance, but against the best of the best, one pitch won't cut it as a starter.

Let's start there, then. His fastball is great, and the raw numbers (96.7 mph average velocity, 28.3% whiff rate, 23.3% put-away rate) are tantalizing. But he also used the pitch 64% of the time in his brief major-league stint, hence why hitters were still able to tag it for a .565 slugging percentage and .402 wOBA despite its elite shape and relatively solid command up in the zone.

That's the product of a five-pitch arsenal that featured no other pitch more than 13% of the time. His cutter and slider both hold very similar shapes and movement profiles, and his changeup is disastrously flat. Tolle only mustered the courage to throw that latter pitch 21 times in the big leagues (all against righties), and it was hammered to the tune of a .711 wOBA. When your primary off-speed offering to opposite-handed batters gets hit that hard and has a pitch map that looks like this, you're going to run into serious trouble.

*Chart courtesy of Baseball Savant

This is simply the case of a very talented pitcher needing more seasoning; had the Red Sox not promoted Tolle so aggressively in 2025, he wouldn't even be a part of this discussion right now. A second offering against both righties and lefties are works in progress, as is the young lefty learning how to pitch around his fastball. There are a lot of nuances to being a pitcher that Tolle will only learn through experience — better to let him get those reps against Triple-A batters rather than in games that actually matter.

With the proper amount of time to develop his other offerings and feel for the course of navigating a lineup multiple times, the young southpaw should eventually emerge as the frontline pitcher so many of us were dreaming about during his MLB debut. But patience is needed here; rushing Tolle any further only stands to damage his long-term upside.

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[drewski6]

Im going to assume that our pitching coaches at the major league level are better than our pitching coaches at the minor league level. If he needs to tweak his changeup grip, or release point or any of that stuff, lets have him work with our best coaches to do it.

Pitchers work in new pitches every year, sometimes between starts. Tolle needs to establish his identity but I think its more likely to happen at the major league level.

I say, give him the chance to win the job.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

It's premature to suggest that Tolle can't develop his necessary off-speed pitch to make the rotation. Also, Bello should be slotted in the 5th spot at best.  Clearly, Early should be slated as the SP3 because he's left-handed, but I still consider him the 2nd best SP on the team.  Gray will fill the 2nd spot and then the fourth spot from a talent spot is Tolle if he can develop the pitch but as a young lefty it is smart to fill the SP5 with Tolle if he is ready.  The fourth spot in my opinion should be Oviedo since I think Bello is highly over-rated.  If Tolle isn't ready like you suggest then I think Sandoval should take the SP5 spot with Bello as the SP6 to be used as needed.  We've watched Houck come up and be the best pitcher for a couple of years, but he's not supported by the front office much like Campbell so the second he struggled he was dismissed.  He's already proven to be far superior to Bello who is highly supported by the organization despite his lack of talent much like Mayer.  

I think it's fair what you wrote because it follows the group think on this website and the front office.  For me, I spent so many years evaluating players that I refuse to be bullied into thinking the way the organization wants fans to think so I'll stick with a talent ranking of pitchers as follows:

1 - Crochet 2-Early 3-Gray 4-Tolle 5-Houck 6-Oviedo/Sandoval 8-Crawford 9-Bello

Clearly Houck and Crawford are still recovering and possibly Sandoval will be too so players need to slot in this order if they are healthy.  One key point about the pitching, while Early and Tolle are young and still learning their stuff is far superior to everyone other than Crochet and the farm system has someone equivalent to them based on stuff in Witherspoon.  Sandlin is also a potential starter that exceeds Bello's and Crawford's skills and could be roughly as good as Houck when healthy.  Breslow has established a great future pitching staff and now must go fill the gaping holes at 3B, 2B, C as well as rearrange the outfield so Anthony, Duran and Rafaela are the regulars.  Having depth at 1B is good and keeping Yoshida at DH versus Abreu is smart.  Personally, I'd switch-off 1Bs at DH if Yoshida struggles to start the season.

Your thoughts on Tolle were good.  I just think he can move forward with his needed pitch faster than you believe he will.  You seem to have insights into the "organizations viewpoints" so you are probably right that they won't let him develop at a faster pace than you predict whether he masters the extra pitch or not.  Adding Early, Tolle and Witherspoon are all huge upgrades that far surpass both Crawford and Bello.  It will be fun to see if Houck comes back strong because he's a right-handed Sale which fits perfectly with Gray and the lefties (Crochet, Early and Tolle).

Breslow has the pitching horses, now he needs the smarts to fix the outfield and solidify 3B, 2B and C.