Kutter Crawford, Aptly Named Cutter Extraordinaire, Will Be Big Piece of Red Sox's 2026 Plans

Following their acquisition of Sonny Gray, it hasn't been difficult to imagine the Boston Red Sox doubling-down and adding another premier starter to their rotation this offseason. The 2026 campaign represents the final one prior to (what many expect to be) a long lockout that could put the 2027 season in jeopardy. There's real, tangible value in operating under economic certainty, even if only for one year. Trading for Gray -- and requiring the St. Louis Cardinals to pick up half of his remaining salary -- was the start of going all-in on next year, not the end of it.

That being said, where exactly the Red Sox turn after Gray depends on your perspective. I made it clear that I believe Gray to be the No. 2 starter this team has been searching for since last year's Winter Meetings. Others have made it clear they do not share that opinion. Depending on which side of the ledger you fall on, you either believe the Red Sox need another depth option to fill in one of the primary jobs behind Brayan Bello, or that they need a true co-ace for Garrett Crochet.

As a Gray truther, I'll cross the line on my own party and stand with those wanting another frontline addition. Gray is a true one-year rental at 36 years old, and it could behoove Boston's front office to find a longer-term partner for Crochet. One could make the case that Bello may still yet grow into that role, or perhaps one of the team's many exciting young arms (Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyson Witherspoon, etc.) could leap others on the depth chart. But that's an idea best harbored for a post-lockout world; in the here and now, there needs to be another upper-echelon starter in Beantown by Opening Day.

I'm not here to tell you who that may be. I maintain my belief that Freddy Peralta is the quintessential Red Sox trade target, though perhaps trading valuable prospect capital for two rental starters in the same offseason isn't the best way of doing business. What I am here to do is explain why, despite my (overzealous) belief in Gray, I think this team should be focusing exclusively on front-of-the-rotation arms.

It helps that there's already so much depth in place. Tolle and Early really should be given the first crack at the No. 5 gig in spring training, and it helps that fellow high-upside arms Kyle Harrison and Luis Perales are already on the 40-man roster. That also doesn't include a trio of players with past MLB success that should be returning from injury at some point in 2026: Patrick Sandoval, Tanner Houck, and Hunter Dobbins. Those seven alone should easily be able to cover whatever innings are open following Crochet, Gray, and Bello, but even that group fails to mention the best of the bunch: Kutter Crawford.

I'll slow my own roll for a second and clarify that by "best", I don't mean "most talented" or "possessing the most impressive track record." Instead, I simply mean that, of the octet of options laid out in the previous paragraph, I find it most likely that Crawford will be able to hold onto a rotation spot throughout the duration of next season.

Of course, that will require Crawford to overcome his bizarre wrist injury that he suffered while moving furniture in the confines of his own home. He was on track to return from patellar tendinopathy in his right knee at some point after the trade deadline, and yet, the usually-reliable starter missed the entire campaign after undergoing surgery on his throwing wrist in July.

As far as freak accidents go, that's certainly one of the them. I'd hardly call Crawford -- who made 56 starts between 2023-24 -- injury-prone, and I'd wager a guess that the braintrust in Boston feels the same way. If we can suppose that Crawford will return to his pre-injury form, the Red Sox should be able to add another starter to the end-of-the-rotation mix, and a damn good one at that.

Though he's never been particularly elite at any one thing, the 29-year-old right-hander is dependable. He tossed 183 2/3 innings when he was last on the mound in 2024, firing off a 3.85 xERA and 4.65 FIP that just about perfectly bisected his 4.36 ERA. He struck out over 23% of hitters while walking just 6.7%, though his primary blemish was allowing 34 home runs in 33 starts.

He was much better in Fenway Park, surrendering a .296 wOBA at home compared to a .314 mark on the road. He also allowed eight fewer home runs despite facing 81 additional batters in Boston. That checks out when digging deeper — batters only went to the opposite field against Crawford 24.4% of the time in 2024, which makes it difficult for lefty hitters to attack the Green Monster.

That's not a matter of luck, either. It's wrought on by conscious decisions made with his repertoire, highlighted by a pair of fastballs and a solid sweeper.

Image courtesy of Baseball Savant

As we know, the Red Sox love pitchers who can toss a big horizontal sweeper, and Crawford fits that mold. It was his best offering to righties last time he was healthy, and it yielded a .214 xBA and .295 xwOBA overall across 522 offerings in 2024, to go along with a tidy 26.3% whiff rate.

In conjunction with that earlier note on the righty being better at home, most will note that Crawford worked reverse splits in his breakout campaign. Left-handed hitters slashed just .207/.272/.402 (.293 wOBA) against him, compared to a .240/.296/.436 (.316 wOBA) slash line for righties. A lot of that has to do with his excellent splitter and knuckle curveball, pitches that yielded batting averages below the Mendoza Line. Crawford tended to reserve those offerings for late in the counts against left-handed batters, seeing as both pitches generated put-away rates above 24%.

Simply put, this is an arsenal that works in harmony. The raw "stuff" isn't necessarily elite, but there's a lot of synergy between each offering and when Crawford likes to throw them. There's genuine variance in the movement profiles of each pitch, and the same is true for their respective velocities. Hitters may be able to hit him hard when they guess right, but that's a one-in-five proposition when every pitch is working.

If healthy, we already know Crawford can handle the workload. It helps that he also has a big-league caliber fastball in his aptly-named cutter, which produced a .216 batting average against and 26.5% whiff rate in 2024. With so much pressure being put on the front of the rotation to produce in 2026, it shouldn't be a surprise if Crawford settles right back into his home as one of the league's most-dependable backend starters next season.