Article: Boston Red Sox Offseason Target: LHP Ranger Suarez

[Jordan Leandre]

If there's one thing the 2025 season taught the Boston Red Sox, it's that there's no such thing as too much starting pitching.

While it's hard to gauge the haul the team received from the Milwaukee Brewers for right-hander Quinn Priester, one can't help but wonder what his 3.32 ERA would've meant for a rotation that got a combined 5.31 ERA in 37 starts between Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, and Dustin May.

At this point, that's water under the bridge as it pertains to the 2026 rotation and beyond. What remains true, as it does every year, is that the Red Sox need to prioritize the rotation on both fronts. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said on the 310 to Left Podcast that the intent needs to be to "move the needle" at the front-end of the rotation.

Talent-wise, it's hard to hear that and not get hung up on things like the recent speculation that Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene could be available, or hyper-fixate on the offseason extension negotiations between the Detroit Tigers and left-hander Tarik Skubal. While there's some high-end stuff on the free agent market, namely San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease, most of the premier talent seems to require getting creative more than financially.

However, the middle of the rotation should be treated with as much intent as the top, as oftentimes those guys are capable of going on dominant stretches. We've seen it in this market for years with the likes of Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, and the 2025 tandem of Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito. That's not to suggest the Red Sox should be content *only* landing a mid-rotation arm, but having an ace and a bunch of No. 3 starters can really lengthen the pitching staff.

That's where Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez comes into play. The 30-year-old is coming off a career-high 157 1/3 innings pitched in 2025 with a 3.20 ERA and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 17.4 percent. He also pitched five innings of one-run ball out of the bullpen in October, lowering his career postseason ERA to 1.48 in 42 2/3 innings (sixth all-time, minimum of 40 innings pitched).

He's hardly a sexy pickup; the velocity on his fastball averaged 91.2 mph in 2025, 2.2 miles down from his 2023 mark, albeit in 32 1/3 more innings and with marked improvements in control and command.

The Good

As mentioned, Suarez commands the ball very well, with improvements yearly since 2023. This past season, he walked just 5.8% of hitters, ranking him 17th among 70 pitchers with at least 150 innings. And despite the less-than-exceptional strikeout stuff, that 17.4% K-BB ranked 20th.

While his fastball is on the high-end of average, his off-speed and breaking pitches are elite; his changeup generated a whiff rate of 33% with a .203 batting average against. His curveball did worse in generating whiffs, but yielded a batting average against of .192, which still underperformed the expected results of a .168 BAA.

The 2025 season wasn't some flash in the pan season for Suarez in a walk year, either. This is more or less who he's always been, at least since breaking into the Phillies rotation on a consistent basis in 2021. Over that span, he's 21st in pitcher fWAR with 14.5 despite ranking 39th in innings and 41st in starts.

As far as being bang for your buck, it's hard to do better on the free-agent market than Suarez.

The Bad

Being a great "bang for your buck" acquisition does come with its cons, however. Suarez's defect as an MLB starter is, historically, that you can pencil him in for a month missed to injury. 

That his 2025 total of 157 1/3 innings were a career-high is more indictment than promising sign, and the 26 starts he made doubles as a testament to his ability to provide length and a reminder that he's never made 30 starts in a season. The most outings of his career in a single season is 39, but 27 of those were relief appearances. He's never made more than 29 starts in a season, and he only did that once (2022).

Moreover, his fastball isn't great. Sure, being in the 60th percentile for run value is on the higher end of average, maybe even a percentile or two into above average, but that's coupled by a seventh-percentile finish in fastball velocity. The pitch is effective enough to open up everything else in his arsenal, but how will that age? Are his secondaries a byproduct of having a respectable-enough fastball? When he's 34 and, presumably, throwing even slower, how will those secondaries hold up then?

As he ages, the health becomes a bigger question as well. If he can't stay healthy in his physical prime, what makes an organization think he'll hold up for 30-plus starts at 33 years old? Not to mention, he's a sure-fire candidate to receive the qualifying offer. Assuming he rejects it, does a team value his talent enough to lose a draft pick to obtain it? Considering the Red Sox traded Priester in large part to acquire a competitive balance pick (Marcus Phillips), one can question their willingness to forgo a draft pick to sign Suarez.

The Verdict

There's no such thing as the perfect free-agent acquisition. If you are looking for red flags, you'll always be sure to find them. The key is to figure out which red flags are non-negotiable and which ones you can live with.

How I see it, all ironmen are only ironmen until they aren't. Pivetta always showed up, until he missed a month in 2024. Giolito was a workhorse, until he missed all of 2024, the first month of 2025 and then the postseason. A bill of health is only clean until it isn't when it comes to athletes.

Suarez provides a ton of value for the volume he gives, and that's what the Red Sox should covet. Perhaps the draft pick compensation scares some teams off and Breslow can swoop in and get a better-than-anticipated deal for him done (Spotrac values him at $26.9 million). A contract in the neighborhood of $110 million over four years -- a $27.5 million average annual value -- should be a no-brainer.

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[moonslav59]

I've been hesitant on recommending the free agent route to solving our high need for a solid #2 SP'er. That need looks more stark now that Gio is gone and Bello morphed back into a #4 type SP'er by season's end.

I've mentioned Merrill Kelly, more out of the fact that the Sox have not signed a DP'er to longer than 2 years since the Nate re-signing (which really looked more like an extension, to me.) Yes, we extended Crochet and Bello, and if you don't count Nates re-signing as a FA signing, we go back even farther to David Price. That's a huge trend to buck.

I'm still thinking we trade for a SP'er and use the winter budget to buy bats.

[Malcolm White]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been hesitant on recommending the free agent route to solving our high need for a solid #2 SP'er. That need looks more stark now that Gio is gone and Bello morphed back into a #4 type SP'er by season's end.

I've mentioned Merrill Kelly, more out of the fact that the Sox have not signed a DP'er to longer than 2 years since the Nate re-signing (which really looked more like an extension, to me.) Yes, we extended Crochet and Bello, and if you don't count Nates re-signing as a FA signing, we go back even farther to David Price. That's a huge trend to buck.

I'm still thinking we trade for a SP'er and use the winter budget to buy bats.

Agree......FA is just the least efficient way to obtain starters, and you have to badly overpay.  Speculation is that Michael King will get 3/$75M, and he's had exactly one healthy season.

Abreu's new GG makes him even more attractive to non-contending teams trying to save money -- MIN, MIA, PGH, ARI, KC and maybe more.  Pair him with a MLB-ready starter like Harrison, Early or Dobbins and that should bring back a good starter with at least two years of term.  In order, I prefer Hunter Greene, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Brady Singer, Cole Ragans and Edward Cabrera.

Then buy Geno Suarez and the Justin WIlson replacement (Pomerantz?) and let's go.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Malcolm White said:

Then buy Geno Suarez and the Justin WIlson replacement (Pomerantz?) and let's go.

Just bring Matz back.

[JoeBrady]

$110M/4 sounds slightly, but certainly close enough.  But we should still target a #2 in a trade for Duran+ or Abreu+.  We need two SPs.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

$110M/4 sounds slightly, but certainly close enough.  But we should still target a #2 in a trade for Duran+ or Abreu+.  We need two SPs.

I'd like 2 SP'ers, too, but with other key needs, I think we need to focus more on making sure we get one really good one (as opposed to two pretty good ones.)

We need 2 big bats and have 3 positional slots open: 3B/2B (Mayer fills the other) 1B and DH. My guess is we go in-house with Mayer/Romy & others to fill 2 of the 4 slots (counting 3B & 2B separately.)

1. Big power bat 

2. Solid #2 SP'er

3. Solid bat (1B/3B/2B/DH)

Then, maybe bring back Matz and Ref (if we trade Garcia or Campbell for a SP'er)

[notin]

40 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

$110M/4 sounds slightly, but certainly close enough.  But we should still target a #2 in a trade for Duran+ or Abreu+.  We need two SPs.

Unless someone is included in a trade, the Sox will be returning Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Early, Tolle, Dobbins, Harrison, Perales, and Fitts, plus any SP added to the 40 man roster to prevent Rule 5 draft selection.  Thats 10 SP right there.  I doubt adding 2 SPs is on the radar…

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Unless someone is included in a trade, the Sox will be returning Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Early, Tolle, Dobbins, Harrison, Perales, and Fitts, plus any SP added to the 40 man roster to prevent Rule 5 draft selection.  Thats 10 SP right there.  I doubt adding 2 SPs is on the radar…

You could be right.  But if we add a #2, like Lodolo, then we have 3 SPs, and will have to add 2 more from your list.  I like the other guys, but if you choose Early & Tolle, as good as their pedigree is, you're still starting two rookies.

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

You could be right.  But if we add a #2, like Lodolo, then we have 3 SPs, and will have to add 2 more from your list.  I like the other guys, but if you choose Early & Tolle, as good as their pedigree is, you're still starting two rookies.

And if the Sox use Crawford and the inadvertently omitted Sandoval, they start no rookies…

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Unless someone is included in a trade, the Sox will be returning Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Early, Tolle, Dobbins, Harrison, Perales, and Fitts, plus any SP added to the 40 man roster to prevent Rule 5 draft selection.  Thats 10 SP right there.  I doubt adding 2 SPs is on the radar…

Criswell could make 11.

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, notin said:

And if the Sox use Crawford and the inadvertently omitted Sandoval, they start no rookies…

is using two guys that didn't pitch in 2025 any better than starting two rookies?  Our problems last year weren't the hitting nor the top of our rotation.  It was the #4 thru #15 guys that started 76 games, went 15-26 with an ERA of 5.18.  I can live with a question mark at #5, but not at #4 & #5.

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Criswell could make 11.

Criswell had one start last year.  We have both the money and prospects to make this a very good rotation.  I don't want to have to get lucky at 40% of my rotation spots.  Heck, even Bello is not quite a lock.