Article: Boston Red Sox Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Kutter Crawford

[Jack Lindsay]

SP Kutter Crawford
Age on Opening Day: 30
2023 Salary: $710,000
2024 Salary: $760,000
2025 Salary: $2,750,000
2026 Salary (Projected): $2,750,000

Background
Kutter Crawford emerged from the Red Sox's farm system seemingly out of nowhere. Drafted 491st overall in 2017, he peaked as the 22nd-ranked prospect in the system according to FanGraphs and made his debut in 2022 at age 25. He was a hybrid arm for the Sox that year, taking the mound 21 total times, including 12 starts.

Over the next two seasons, Crawford accumulated 313 innings of work with a 4.23 ERA and 4.3 fWAR. In 2024, he led the Red Sox in innings pitched with 183 2/3, never missing a start or landing on the IL. Crawford became a pitcher who wasn’t flashy by any stretch but would show up every fifth day and give the lineup a chance to win. There’s real value in that, especially in the back of the rotation where the Sox often turned to unreliable pitchers like Dustin May in crucial parts of the season.

2025 Season
Now, I know what I said two sentences ago, but almost all of that went by the wayside before Crawford could even throw a pitch in 2025. On March 27, Crawford was placed on the 15-day IL with patellar tendinopathy in his right knee. According to Chris Cotillo, Crawford was scheduled to make a rehab start the week after May 31.

Then, it came out that Crawford needed season-ending wrist surgery due to an off-field incident. We would later come to find out it occurred during house maintenance when he twisted and felt a pop. All that being said, all signs point to Crawford being ready to start 2026.

Organizational Starting Pitching Depth
MLB: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Patrick Sandoval
AAA: Payton Tolle, Luis Perales, Hunter Dobbins, Kyle Harrison, Richard Fitts, Chris Murphy, Jose De Leon
To the Red Sox’s benefit (and maybe not so much Crawford’s), the organization has a wealth of starting pitching depth. Every player listed above, except Luis Perales, has gotten a taste of the big leagues for at least one start. This doesn’t even include Lucas Giolito, who could receive a qualifying offer in the near future.

At this point, it feels clear that at least three rotation spots are locked up: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Connelly Early. Early proved himself in a big way after making his debut, so much so that the Sox leaned on him in a win-or-go-home playoff game. Sandoval has yet to pitch an inning for the Red Sox, so the jury is still out on him, though optimism is best paired with caution.

Beyond the big-league level, Tolle, Dobbins, and Harrison have all made bids for rotation spots in 2026. Dobbins was remarkably steady before his unfortunate ACL tear, and the Red Sox have a vested interest in Harrison’s success given his connection to Rafael Devers. Tolle, the organization’s No. 1 prospect according to SoxProspects and No. 28 in MLB according to MLB Pipeline, isn’t far from pitching in the red and white once again. He displayed an elite fastball, albeit with some control issues, but the Red Sox view him as a mainstay and one of the untradeable pieces in the farm system.

Why a New Contract Makes Sense
Having a wealth of depth in the rotation is always a good thing, especially for a team with championship aspirations. Rotations never make it through all 162 games unscathed, as evidenced by Jose De Leon starts in September or multiple Cooper Criswell appearances during the season.

Crawford has already proven he can be an effective innings eater and remains the longest-tenured Red Sox pitcher on the staff, providing valuable stability for a young group of arms.

Why the Red Sox Could Let Him Walk
Similar to the logjam at DH this season, Crawford could block younger arms the Red Sox view as more important to their long-term future. One way to avoid that issue would be a non-tender, allowing players like Tolle or Harrison to get their feet wet early on.

Not to mention, Crawford has never been the most effective pitcher on the staff, and his run-prevention skills are fairly replaceable with an outside addition.

Projection
I would be shocked if the Red Sox non-tendered Kutter Crawford this offseason. Letting a player with his skill set walk is rare, even with uncertainty following injury. As mentioned earlier, a pitcher who can eat innings while keeping his ERA in the vicinity of 4.00 is legitimately important to a staff over the course of a 162-game season.

If the Sox decide to move to a six-man rotation, Crawford makes sense as the fifth or sixth guy. Ultimately, keeping him creates a good problem for the Red Sox to have. He would likely be snatched up quickly by another team looking for affordable pitching help if he were let go. With two more years of arbitration beyond 2026, Crawford will be cheap to maintain—the Red Sox can always revisit the possibility of a non-tender in the 2026 offseason if he struggles.

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[moonslav59]

There is no possible way we let Crawford walk. At worst, we trade him.

[notin]

Depth is essential.  Keep Crawford even if it means Early spends April in Worcester.  There will be enough starts for everyone…

[moonslav59]

There is a chance Crawford becomes our #2 or 3 SP'er in 2026- or never starts another game for us.

Most likely, he'll be our #5-6 SP'er.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There is a chance Crawford becomes our #2 or 3 SP'er in 2026- or never starts another game for us.

Most likely, he'll be our #5-6 SP'er.

If he's the #2, the Sox are in BIG trouble most likely. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If he's the #2, the Sox are in BIG trouble most likely. 

Yup.

He could be our #2 because everyone else has not earned the slot, but he could pitch better than 2024 and be okay as a #2, and if our #3, 4 and 5 do okay, too, there is a chance we could still make the dance. (Not likely, yes.)

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup.

He could be our #2 because everyone else has not earned the slot, but he could pitch better than 2024 and be okay as a #2, and if our #3, 4 and 5 do okay, too, there is a chance we could still make the dance. (Not likely, yes.)

The hope was that he was going to improve on his 2023 season, not "be better than 2024." His last season was nothing to be all that proud of. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The hope was that he was going to improve on his 2023 season, not "be better than 2024." His last season was nothing to be all that proud of. 

My bad.

We needed 2023 numbers over 2024 IP'd.

Now, we need better than 2023 numbers and 2024 IP.

Again, not likely.

[mvp 78]

On 10/23/2025 at 1:59 PM, moonslav59 said:

My bad.

We needed 2023 numbers over 2024 IP'd.

Now, we need better than 2023 numbers and 2024 IP.

Again, not likely.

He got the HR flu in '24 and was out all of '25. Hard to see what the path forward is. Back end/bulk guy most likely. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He got the HR flu in '24 and was out all of '25. Hard to see what the path forward is. Back end/bulk guy most likely. 

I'm not sure why that is your chosen projection, but certainly it is a significantly possible outlook.

I have no idea what to expect. I do still think a healthy Casas can hit over .800 and hit 30+ bombs.

Projecting health is near impossible.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure why that is your chosen projection, but certainly it is a significantly possible outlook.

I have no idea what to expect. I do still think a healthy Casas can hit over .800 and hit 30+ bombs.

Projecting health is near impossible.

Crawford's initial outlook prior to '23 was backend/bulk. With the missed time and bad results of '24, seems like a reasonable outcome, no? 

SP had him as: Summation: Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well.

Casas is a little bit of a different story. His problem is strictly the injury he's coming off of. If it was a different injury, I may be more optimistic. This one is very likely a career ender. Also, a lot of the word choice the Sox are using in regards to his recovery timeline is interesting. For Mayer and Anthony it's "progressing normally/well." For Casas it's "recovery has been complicated due to the nature of his injury, but hasn't had any setbacks." That's a very interesting way to talk about his injury considering how serious I believe this injury to be.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crawford's initial outlook prior to '23 was backend/bulk. With the missed time and bad results of '24, seems like a reasonable outcome, no? 

SP had him as: Summation: Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well.

Casas is a little bit of a different story. His problem is strictly the injury he's coming off of. If it was a different injury, I may be more optimistic. This one is very likely a career ender. Also, a lot of the word choice the Sox are using in regards to his recovery timeline is interesting. For Mayer and Anthony it's "progressing normally/well." For Casas it's "recovery has been complicated due to the nature of his injury, but hasn't had any setbacks." That's a very interesting way to talk about his injury considering how serious I believe this injury to be.

The injury could very well be an "ender." You read stuff like that but also "Casas has progressed on schedule and expects to be ready in Spring Training." (mlb.com)

I would not trade him due to both his upside (assuming he might get better) and his current low trade value (due to the fact that every GM knows about this type of injury and the doubts associated with it.)

I would not plan on him to be our FT anything, but I still have hopes he can return to .800 and 30+ HRs/650 PAs