Article: Aroldis Chapman's Extension is a Gamble, but It's One Worth Taking

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, you'd trade Rafaela or play him at 2B?

Tade Antony or have an OF'er ride the bench every game?

I would trade Rafaela, yes

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't going to be able to invest that much on the rotation unless they are having someone take on Masa's full salary. Why block a cheap Tolle for a mediocre Keller that would cost a decent return in trade? 

Tolle will not be blocked. We have to count on a starter to be on the IL, at all times. This year we had 2 never start a game: Crawford & Sandoval. We had one start 9 games and is not out until 2027 (Houck.) We had Dobbins (11 GS) and Fitts (10 GS) miss the end of the season after less than 2/3 available starts. We also has a minor leaguer (Perales) out all year.

That being said, I'd be fine with Ryan and either Gio or Keller.

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Tolle will not be blocked. We have to count on a starter to be on the IL, at all times. This year we had 2 never start a game: Crawford & Sandoval. We had one start 9 games and is not out until 2027 (Houck.) We had Dobbins (11 GS) and Fitts (10 GS) miss the end of the season after less than 2/3 available starts. We also has a minor leaguer (Perales) out all year.

That being said, I'd be fine with Ryan and either Gio or Keller.

And who bats 1-6 next year (do not include guys you are trading because you are concerned about our 6/7 starter).

[drewski6]

Id love to have a deep rotation 1-7.  But even this year, we often have a catcher in our cleanup spot. Or a journeyman, so its hard for me to get excited about subtracting from the offense (yet again).  If you are replacing the offense, im fine trading some.  But I want very good hitters 6 deep (at least)

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Id love to have a deep rotation 1-7.  But even this year, we often have a catcher in our cleanup spot. Or a journeyman, so its hard for me to get excited about subtracting from the offense (yet again).  If you are replacing the offense, im fine trading some.  But I want very good hitters 6 deep (at least)

1. Replace Devers (great bat)
2. Replace the offensive player you are trading (Abreu). Doesnt have to be an OF'er someone who we are comfy with batting 1-5.
3. Then I am okay trading Abreu

[drewski6]

Show me a deep offensive lineup 1-6 without Abreu and im okay trading Abreu. You start assuming KC and Meyer are going to be good hitters - you are reaching. You start assuming we are bringing Breg back (but not Gio) - you are being inconsistent.  You start assuming Story will stay healhty and productive at the plate and Im getting a bit unneasy.  

I need an elite offense.  Its usually the last teams left standing are the ones with elite hitting. Especially lately.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And who bats 1-6 next year (do not include guys you are trading because you are concerned about our 6/7 starter).

No, I'm concerned about our #3 SP. We're on #14, now. (Gio will be a FA, last year's ace is out until '27 and we got 5 others on the 60 Day IL, now.) Right now, we are looking at Crochet, Bello & Tolle, then wings and prayers.

I am concerned about our line-up, too. I have suggested we trade for Ryan, so we don't pay $25M+ for a FA SP'ers, and then spend the money on Alonso.

1. Anthony RF

2. Bregman 3B

3. Duran LF

4. Alonso 1B

5. Story SS

6. Mayer 2B

7. Casas/Romy DH (Jh Garcia?)

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

No, I'm concerned about our #3 SP. We're on #14, now. (Gio will be a FA, last year's ace is out until '27 and we got 5 others on the 60 Day IL, now.) Right now, we are looking at Crochet, Bello & Tolle, then wings and prayers.

I am concerned about our line-up, too. I have suggested we trade for Ryan, so we don't pay $25M+ for a FA SP'ers, and then spend the money on Alonso.

1. Anthony RF

2. Bregman 3B

3. Duran LF

4. Alonso 1B

5. Story SS

6. Mayer 2B

7. Casas/Romy DH (Jh Garcia?)

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

Thats too much of a drop-off after 4. Cant count on Story and Mayer to stay healthy.  Mayer has not proven he can hit well enough to be 5/6. This is 1-2 quality bats short for my taste.

So dont trade Abreu.  Easy. Trade Rafaela or prospects.

[drewski6]

And you are including Bregman, so really you are showing me 3 bats.  Duran (not an elite 3 hole hitter himself), Anthony (22 year old sophmore and soph slumps are real), and Alonso

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

1. Replace Devers (great bat)
2. Replace the offensive player you are trading (Abreu). Doesnt have to be an OF'er someone who we are comfy with batting 1-5.
3. Then I am okay trading Abreu

Without adding anyone to replace Abreu (and Devers,) you are right. We'd be just shifting one problem for another. I don't like the idea of Rafaela at 2B or Duran at DH, but we can find ways to play the 4 OF'ers. 

To me, I ask why? These 4 OF'ers, in theory, would have way more value on another team as an OF'er than to us as a 2Bman or DH, so a trade makes sense. It's not that I dislike any of our 4 OF'ers. It's too bad the most questionable graduated prospects are infielders.

Trading for Ryan, who will make a fraction of what a FA SP'er will make, again in theory, allows us to spend on a guy like Alonso or Schwarber and not Cease or Framber (or even Gio.)

We all know JH ain't gonna okay signing Framber & Alonso.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats too much of a drop-off after 4. Cant count on Story and Mayer to stay healthy.  Mayer has not proven he can hit well enough to be 5/6. This is 1-2 quality bats short for my taste.

So dont trade Abreu.  Easy. Trade Rafaela or prospects.

Okay. I did mention trading Rafaela, instead. This is the first you mentioned that isea.

I'd be fine with that and also adding Ryan and Alonso or Schwarber.

To me, DH'ing an OF'er or playing Rafaela at 2B is a waste of talent and skills.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And you are including Bregman, so really you are showing me 3 bats.  Duran (not an elite 3 hole hitter himself), Anthony (22 year old sophmore and soph slumps are real), and Alonso

Without Bregman, we are toast, even with Ryan and Alonso.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Without adding anyone to replace Abreu (and Devers,) you are right. We'd be just shifting one problem for another. I don't like the idea of Rafaela at 2B or Duran at DH, but we can find ways to play the 4 OF'ers. 

To me, I ask why? These 4 OF'ers, in theory, would have way more value on another team as an OF'er than to us as a 2Bman or DH, so a trade makes sense. It's not that I dislike any of our 4 OF'ers. It's too bad the most questionable graduated prospects are infielders.

Trading for Ryan, who will make a fraction of what a FA SP'er will make, again in theory, allows us to spend on a guy like Alonso or Schwarber and not Cease or Framber (or even Gio.)

We all know JH ain't gonna okay signing Framber & Alonso.

These are the boxes I need checked:

A true ace
A very good pitcher who is not your true ace (another very good starter)
2 more solid-better pitchers
An elite power hitter
An elite overall hitter
3-4 more very good hitters
Decent SP depth
Decent RP depth
2 very good pen arms
A team that when you include all those bats, is not awful defensively

 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. I did mention trading Rafaela, instead. This is the first you mentioned that isea.

I'd be fine with that and also adding Ryan and Alonso or Schwarber.

To me, DH'ing an OF'er or playing Rafaela at 2B is a waste of talent and skills.

I value Abreu over Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats too much of a drop-off after 4. Cant count on Story and Mayer to stay healthy.  Mayer has not proven he can hit well enough to be 5/6. This is 1-2 quality bats short for my taste.
 

We have one of the best 5-9 and 6-9 batters in MLB, despite missing our .800 1Bman, plus time significant missed by Bregman, Mayer and Abreu. We still have Campbell & Garcia as hopefuls.

Our line-up balance and depth looks to be top 3 in 2026, and you are claiming it is our highest priority.

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

We have one of the best 5-9 and 6-9 batters in MLB, despite missing our .800 1Bman, plus time significant missed by Bregman, Mayer and Abreu. We still have Campbell & Garcia as hopefuls.

Our line-up balance and depth looks to be top 3 in 2026, and you are claiming it is our highest priority.

Really?

[drewski6]

But is it fools gold like Cedanne and Toro up until a month ago?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

These are the boxes I need checked:

A true ace
A very good pitcher who is not your true ace (another very good starter)
2 more solid-better pitchers
An elite power hitter
An elite overall hitter
3-4 more very good hitters
Decent SP depth
Decent RP depth
2 very good pen arms
A team that when you include all those bats, is not awful defensively

 

How many boxes are checked, assuming Bregman returns.

We aint filling all those boxes, this coming winter.

Asking for Ryan, Giolito, Bregman and a big bat (Alonso/Schwarber) is likely more than JH will pay for.

[drewski6]

I like your Mayer and Clarke trade for Ryan.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How many boxes are checked, assuming Bregman returns.

We aint filling all those boxes, this coming winter.

Asking for Ryan, Giolito, Bregman and a big bat (Alonso/Schwarber) is likely more than JH will pay for.

Retain Gio, Bregman, get Alonso while flipping Mayer/Clarke and maybe 1-2 lower propsects for Ryan asking too much?

Genuine question

Im trying to build a WS team, not a playoff team.

[drewski6]

Weve strayed pretty far from a conversation about chapman lol. Love that extension btw.  Think he might have left a guaranteed year on the table.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Really?

Yes, we do. Please look at other teams.

Here are the 2025 numbers:

6 slot: TEX, SDP, TOR, PHI, BOS

7 slot: CHC, MIA, SFG. BOS, STL

8 slot: BAL, DET, NYM, CHC, PHI (26th BOS)

9th slot: CIN, MIL, BOS, CHC, NYM

The Cubs, PHI and BOS dominate the rest of MLB in bottom slot batting.

We are easily top 3.

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Yes, we do. Please look at other teams.

Here are the 2025 numbers:

6 slot: TEX, SDP, TOR, PHI, BOS

7 slot: CHC, MIA, SFG. BOS, STL

8 slot: BAL, DET, NYM, CHC, PHI (26th BOS)

9th slot: CIN, MIL, BOS, CHC, NYM

The Cubs, PHI and BOS dominate the rest of MLB in bottom slot batting.

We are easily top 3.

Well, hot dog.

[drewski6]

My team goes

Elly
Vlad
Rooker
Jazz
Corbin Carroll
Roman Empire
McClain
Catcher platoon
PCA 

Rotation: Crochet, Hunter Greene, Andre Abbott, Lodolo, Chase Petty

BP: Alvarado, Strahm, Mason Miller, Felix Bautista

We started as the Reds.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Retain Gio, Bregman, get Alonso while flipping Mayer/Clarke and maybe 1-2 lower propsects for Ryan asking too much?

Genuine question

Im trying to build a WS team, not a playoff team.

I'm thinking we are nearly a top 3 contender already. (3 NL teams then us w DET, TOR, NYY & HOU tied.)

I think we need a guy like Ryan, because he fits into JH's wallet.

We need Bregman back.

We could really use Alonso or Schwarber, but maybe we can be top 3-4 with some other 1Bman, DH or 2Bman who can hit well and has power. If we kept Gio and added Ryan that might be good enough w/o one of these bats.

Counting Bregman: 3-4 major pieces.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm thinking we are nearly a top 3 contender already. (3 NL teams then us w DET, TOR, NYY & HOU tied.)

I think we need a guy like Ryan, because he fits into JH's wallet.

We need Bregman back.

We could really use Alonso or Schwarber, but maybe we can be top 3-4 with some other 1Bman, DH or 2Bman who can hit well and has power. If we kept Gio and added Ryan that might be good enough w/o one of these bats.

Counting Bregman: 3-4 major pieces.

I never agreed with letting Schwarber go in the first place.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well, hot dog.

With all the fixins'

of course, I'd love an all star lineup 1-9, and 1-6 is not an unreasonable ask, but I'm looking at the budget and JH and wondering just how much we can do. 

Bregman and Gio will be costly. No big adds from what they make now, but lots of extensions kick in as others get raises.

The idea of trading Rafaela to maximize our offense is okay with me, because the other OF'er are pretty good on D. (Garcia is thought to be a plus, as well.)

If we can do Bregman, Gio, Ryan and Alonso/Schwarber, I'll be thrilled and shocked.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I never agreed with letting Schwarber go in the first place.

Did you have a JD trade lined up, or did you plan on getting JH drunk before he signed the contract?

[moonslav59]

How much trade value does Rafaela have? My guess is, there may be a wide differential in how other teams value him.

His contract looks like a bargain to most teams but may be a burden, later on to some teams: 

• • 26:$2M, 27:$3.5M, 28:$5.5M, 29:$7.5M, 30:$10.5M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M club option ($4M buyout)

Trading him over Duran or Abreu might involve needing better secondary pieces to get a guy like Ryan or Keller.

Would you give Rafaela & Campbell for Ryan? While both cost  peanuts, now, their pay goes up. The good thing for the Sox would be losing the $14M lux tax number for several years.

Rafaela plus 2 from Sandlin, Early, Clarke & Valera? (Maybe the first 3?)