Article: Red Sox Week in Review: Vibing Toward The All-Star Break

[Alex Mayes]

Weekly Snapshot:
Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall 46-45)
Runs Scored last Week: 43
Runs Surrendered Last Week: 22

Standings:
4th in the AL East
6.5 GB 1st Place
2 WCGB

Scores:
Game 86 (6/30) BOS 13, CIN 6
Game 87 (7/1) BOS 5, CIN 3
Game 88 (7/2) BOS 4, CIN 8
Game 89 (7/4) BOS 11, WSH 2
Game 90 (7/5) BOS 10, WSH 3
Game 91 (7/6) BOS 6, WSH 4

Transactions:

• 6/30/25: Red Sox optioned 1B Nick Sogard to Worcester Red Sox:
• 6/30/25: Red Sox activated RHP Jordan Hicks from the 15-day injured list.
• 6/30/25: Red Sox activated 3B Marcelo Mayer from the bereavement list.
• 7/01/25: Red Sox sent LF Masataka Yoshida on a rehab assignment to Worcester Red Sox.
• 7/02/25: Red Sox recalled RHP Cooper Criswell from Worcester Red Sox.
• 7/03/25: Red Sox optioned RHP Cooper Criswell to Worcester Red Sox.
• 7/04/25: Red Sox sent RHP Tanner Houck on a rehab assignment to Portland Sea Dogs.
• 7/04/25: Red Sox LF Masataka Yoshida on a rehab assignment to Portland Sea Dogs.
• 07/05/25: Red Sox sent RHP Hunter Dobbins on a rehab assignment to Portland Sea Dogs.

TL;DR Breakdown/Highlights

Reds Series:
Wilyer Abreu mashes, even if they don’t leave the park. He hit three home runs, including one grand slam and one inside-the-park homer in the series against the Reds. Abreu is really coming into his own this season, and this Red series may serve as his coming-out party. If he can keep his power constant throughout the rest of the season, the team may not miss Rafael Devers nearly as much as initially thought.

Errors ultimately gave away the final game of the series, as the Red Sox struggled with communication and throwing issues, allowing the Reds to stave off a sweep. What the Red Sox did incredibly well during this series, though, is keep Elly De La Cruz from making any sort of impact. He had 14 plate appearances during the series with only two singles, one run, one RBI, one walk, and three strikeouts. He hit .154 for the series, the lowest average on the Reds for those three games.

 

If the Red Sox can limit impactful at-bats from big-name superstars, it should bode well for them moving forward. Offensive outbursts seem to be the trend of late for the Sox, pushing them to win games even when errors and bullpen meltdowns make the margin of victory much thinner.

Nationals Series: 
Trevor Story continues his hot hitting in the Washington series, contributing four RBIs. He’s been the hottest hitter in baseball over the past week and doesn’t appear to be cooling off anytime soon. Those four are tied for second on the team with Ceddanne Rafaela, both behind Jarren Duran’s five. Speaking of Duran, he bailed out Walker Buehler with a fantastic catch in left field that should have tied the game. If Duran can turn in defensive performances like this consistently, the Red Sox would likely have to think a bit harder about potentially moving him as the trade deadline approaches. Or at least get a larger return than they could have last week.

The second big story of the series, though, is Rafaela. He took a bit of a tumble in the second game and was pulled as a precaution, but he was fantastic over the weekend. He seemed to come up in big situations and put the ball in play each time. He has seemed a lot more confident at the plate, and he confirmed that in his postgame comments on Sunday. He understandably didn’t make the All-Star team this year, but if he can keep this up, then we’re looking at a perennial All-Star on a steal of a contract.

Random Stats:

• 6/30-7/6 Slash Lines: 
  • Good weeks:
    • Trevor Story: .524/.545/.952
    • Wilyer Abreu: .313/.389/.875
    • Ceddanne Rafaela: .316/.350/.737
    • Jarren Duran: .300/.364/.650
  • Bad weeks:
    • David Hamilton: .182/.250/.182
    • Nate Eaton: .167/.167/.333
    • Rob Refsnyder: .200/.200/.400
    • Connor Wong: .250/.250/.250
• Connor Wong had a 32 wRC+ on the week and was still somehow surpassed by David Hamilton’s 20 wRC+. 
• Trevor Story posted a 318 wRC+, almost a full 100 points higher than Wilyer Abreu’s second-place 239.
• Abraham Toro’s walk rate led the team this week with 13%, while Story was once again the lowest at 4.5%.
• Roman Anthony had the second-hardest hit balls on the team with 10. He was behind, you guessed it, Trevor Story.

Website Highlights:
The Red Sox Are Trying To Build A Super-Defense. How Close Are They? By Finley Rogan

3 Underrated Draft Prospects the Red Sox Should Consider With Their First Round Pick by Billy Mock

FanGraphs’ Top 45 Red Sox Prospects List Makes Multiple Interesting Calls by Nick John

Looking Ahead:
July 7 - Rockies at Red Sox - 7:10 pm EDT
July 8 - Rockies at Red Sox - 7:10 pm EDT
July 9 - Rockies at Red Sox - 7:10 pm EDT
July 10 - Rays at Red Sox - 7:10 pm EDT
July 11 - Rays at Red Sox - 7:10 pm EDT
July 12 - Rays at Red Sox - 4:10 pm EDT

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

Here is a recap of the team's winnings by series

1 @Texas LOSS  2@ BAL Win  3 STL Win (SWEEP)  4 TOR LOSS

5 @CWS LOSS  6 @TB Win   7 CWS Win   8 SEA LOSS

9 @CLE Win  10 @TOR LOSS  11 MIN LOSS  12 TEX Win

13 @KC Win  14 @DET LOSS (SWEEP) 15  ATL LOSS  16 NYM Win

17 BAL  TIE (2-2)  18 @MIL LOSS (SWEEP)  19 @ATL W  20 LAA LOSS

21 @NYY WIN  22 TB WIN  23 NYY WIN (SWEEP)   24 @SEA Win 

25 @SF LOSS  26 @LAA LOSS (SWEEP)   27 TOR LOSS   28 CIN WIN

29 @WAS WIN

After 29 series the Red Sox are 15-13-1.  The series are listed in groups of four and the first 5 clusters all ended up being 2-2.  That's .500 after 20 series.  Then BOS started varying hot and cold so the 6th cluster was 4-0 not 2-2 and then the 7th was 1-3 with WAS starting the 8th cluster with a WIN.

After the next series with COL the opponents get much tougher.  So this cluster of four is WAS, COL, TB and CHC so it's likely to finish 2-2 like the first 5 clusters of 4.  Then things escalate.  Cluster 9 includes PHI, LAD, MIN and HOU.  The 10th cluster is KC, SD, HOU and MIA.  The 11th cluster is BAL, NYY, BAL and PIT as we see an incrase in AL East games.  Cluster 12 includes CLE, ARI, OAK and NYY.  The final cluster of 4 series includes OAK, TB, TOR and DET.  A series with DET that could match up Crochet and Skubal unless DET has clinched and are lining up Skubal for the first game in the playoffs.  A bye for DET could mean Skubal's last regular season start will be at Fenway.

Starting at Cluster 9 it's hard to imagine BOS will break out and grow from a .500 team to a 90 win or more team during their last 20 series.  It's possible but not likely.  If it is to happen, the Cluster 9 series versus PHI, LAD, MIN and HOU can't be a disaster.  Boston will need to win more than lose during those 4 series because the 9-game gap from 81 wins to 90 won't be easy to close with a 6-6 record during the Cluster 9 series.  Time would be running out too fast and yet how likely is it BOS can win 6 of 12 versus PHI in PHI, LA in BOS, MIN in MIN and HOU in BOS?

Time will tell. 

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox should be able to win the series against the Rockies.  Winning the series against the Rays will be a much bigger test, obviously, but I'm hopeful we can win 2 of 3 at home.

What scares me is the tough road that we have coming immediately out of the All-Star break.  Last year, we were 10 games over .500 going into the break, and playing very good ball.  It all fell apart after that.  Hopefully, we'll see a different story this year.

[Alex Mayes]

3 hours ago, Kimmi said:

The Red Sox should be able to win the series against the Rockies.  Winning the series against the Rays will be a much bigger test, obviously, but I'm hopeful we can win 2 of 3 at home.

What scares me is the tough road that we have coming immediately out of the All-Star break.  Last year, we were 10 games over .500 going into the break, and playing very good ball.  It all fell apart after that.  Hopefully, we'll see a different story this year.

Yeah, that road trip immediately after the break is going to be the deciding factor in whatever the team decides to do in my opinion. Last year the hot streak started against the Phillies and Yankees so it stands to reason they could play them well again this year, but the Cubs are a very good team that seem to be getting hotter right now.

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

Yeah, that road trip immediately after the break is going to be the deciding factor in whatever the team decides to do in my opinion. Last year the hot streak started against the Phillies and Yankees so it stands to reason they could play them well again this year, but the Cubs are a very good team that seem to be getting hotter right now.

I agree that the road trip right after the break is likely going to determine what direction the team goes at the deadline.  I didn't realize that the upcoming series against the Rays is a 4-game series.  It will be a challenge to win 3 out of 4.  How we play in that series could also set the tone for what happens after the break.

I like this team.  I think they have the talent to get into the playoffs.  I'll keep my fingers crossed.