3 Underrated Draft Prospects the Red Sox Should Consider With Their First Round Pick

[Billy Mock]

With the MLB Draft taking place later in the summer than it ever has, it feels like we have been saying it's right around the corner for a few months now. However, we are now two weeks away and in the final stages of the cycle. Although it would seem that organizations have their prized prospects picked out for their first-round selection, there is still a lot that can change.

Every year, it seems like there is a name called in the first round that was nowhere to be found on first-round mock drafts or on the top of draft boards throughout the spring. Given the landscape of the class, it's likely we could see it happen again this year. Whether it's sign-ability, medicals, makeup, etc., players expected to land in the first round could fall, giving way for more under-appreciated prospects with first-round value. With that being said, here are three underrated players the Red Sox could target with their first round pick as under-valued prospects.

1. Ryan Mitchell, SS/2B, Houston HS (TN) 

Outside of the high-end college arms, the strength of this year's class is the prep hitters — specifically, the infielders. The top-tier of prep infielders consists of Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, and now arguably Jojo Parker. All four of those names are likely to be gone by the time the Red Sox pick comes around, so it appears to be likely they play it safe with a college bat. They've selected a college bat in the first round in each of the last two years, but they're also not that far removed from getting solid returns from prep infielders between what Marcelo Mayer and Mikey Romero have done. 

Following the top-tier of prep bats, there is not a lot of separation between the second-tier and third or fourth rung of the demographic. Plenty of organizations could view a player somewhere in that group as the next-best prospect, and believe they could get the same value from them as the upper-tier players in the long-term. Selecting such a player could also grant them the luxury of saving some money they likely would have spent on a player projected to fall somewhere around their pick. I believe Ryan Mitchell is one of those players. 

Mitchell is the 55th-ranked draft prospect by MLB Pipeline, and is likely to land somewhere in the front-half of the second round. His ceiling according to the consensus of the industry seems to be a first-round compensatory pick or potentially somewhere in the 20s. However, I don't think he's that far off from the prep bats that will land somewhere in the top ten.

For starters, Mitchell has one of the more advanced bats among the prep class. He makes more than enough contact and also displays a lot of maturity at the plate, rarely chasing pitches outside of the zone. He has a smooth swing from the left side of the plate with good bat speed, peppering baseballs to all fields. The Tennessee Gatorade Player of the Year hit .462 for Houston High School in his senior season, and started to find his power stroke, leaving the yard 12 times. At 6'2" and 185 pounds, he has a lot of room to grow into more power. The overall profile at the plate is similar to Kevin McGonigle's, the 37th overall pick to the Tigers in 2023. In hindsight, McGonigle could have been a top-15 pick in that draft, and Mitchell very well may follow the same trajectory.

Mitchell's lack of a defensive home in the future is really the only knock on his profile. He likely won't stick at shortstop due to his fringy arm and footwork, but he has the athleticism to either stay on the dirt at second base, or end up in the outfield as an average center fielder. Regardless of where he ends up, he possesses the athleticism and instincts to develop into a multi-faceted player beyond just the bat. He does also have above-average speed that could potentially result in 20+ steals on a yearly basis at the next level. 

2. Lucas Franco, SS, Cinco Ranch HS (TX)

Sticking with prep infielders, we have Lucas Franco, one of the better defenders in this year's prep class. I find Franco to be among the same crop of players Ryan Mitchell is in; he's outside of the top-tier of prep bats, but can certainly get to that type of value long-term. Of the three players discussed here, Franco ranks the lowest on MLB Pipeline's draft ranking at 67th, so this is even more of a stretch than Mitchell at 15th overall, but offers similar upside (and potentially even more under-slot signing bonus potential).

A TCU commit, Franco is on the younger side of the class, having just turned 18 — something a lot of organizations' draft models like. There is a ton of projection in his 6'3" long and lean frame, so there's a lot you can dream on given what he has already shown in his young career. He has never been the top position player in this particular prep class, but his name has been circled as a legitimate prospect dating back a few years, so he has been on a steady trajectory up to this point with a solid track record to look back on. 

A slam dunk to stick at shortstop at the next level, Franco's glove alone is going to keep him around at the professional level for a while. His actions at short are very smooth, displaying soft, quick hands and a 55-grade arm from across the diamond. He's kind of the opposite of Ryan Mitchell as a defender — he's not as fast or athletic, but makes the most of his athleticism to create plus range and smooth fielding at shortstop. 

At the plate, Franco has a history of being over-aggressive, but makes up for it with plenty of contact. He showed some improved plate discipline this spring as he also started growing into some power. Breaking and off-speed pitches have given him the most problems, but he has proven he can hit higher level fastballs, which certainly lays a solid frame work for success in the pro ranks. His ability to hit at the next level will be the difference in him becoming either Boston's next franchise shortstop or their next late-game defensive replacement.

3. Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee

Of the three prospects discussed here, Marcus Phillips is likely the safest and most likely prospect to land somewhere in the top 20. He ranks 61st on MLB Pipeline's draft rankings, but he has big league stuff that I can see a team like the Red Sox betting on early in the draft. 

The Red Sox have stuck with position players with their first-round picks as of late. In fact, you would have to go back to 2017 when they selected Tanner Houck 24th overall to find the last time they took an arm. However, they have been among the best as of late when it comes to pitching development, so I don't think it would be crazy if they broke their recent trend and took a chance on a guy they really believe belongs in their system. Marcus Phillips could be that guy.  

The big right-hander was Tennessee's Saturday starter this spring, throwing 83 innings across 17 starts to a 3.90 ERA. At 6'4" and 250 pounds, Phillips is a very physical athlete with a big league starter's frame. With his size, he generates a lot of velocity with the ability to hold on to it deeper into outings. His fastball routinely touched triple digits this spring while it sat between 97 and 98 mph. The shape on the offering is fringy, but it of course plays up due to its velocity as well as his lower release height. It's no secret that the Red Sox have strayed away from four-seam fastball usage, so they could make a tweak to it considering it's weaker shape and turn it into either a cut-ride fastball or a power sinker. 

Along with the fastball, he also has above-average feel for two secondaries. His upper-90s slider is a more traditional slider that he has found plenty of success with against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He didn't go to his plus changeup all too often this spring simply because he didn't have to use it that much, so it could certainly turn into an excellent offering with more usage in a big league pitching department. 

There is some reliever risk with Phillips, which is why he finds himself in the second-round conversation. He has yet to show above-average command, which could be what makes or breaks him as a starter at the next level. He doesn't have a ton of experience as a full-time pitcher, as he was a two-way player through his freshman year at Iowa Western CC. With more time on the mound, the command could develop into an average to above-average tool, which would definitely pave the way for him to become a big league starter. The Red Sox have made similar improvements to Payton Tolle, another big, hard-throwing college arm who they selected 50th overall a year ago and has become one of the top hurlers in the system.

The fact that he doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm could also be a good or a bad thing. Injury is always a concern as you continue to load innings on to a young arm, but the fact that he hasn't thrown a ton of innings also speaks to the fact that he still has a lot of projection in his profile. Phillips is a guy I definitely could see the Red Sox targeting with their comp-round A selection with the 33rd overall pick, but I also could see them rolling the dice on him with the 15th overall pick.

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[Hugh2]

I can see all three of these guys being available at 33, but what the heck do I know? players never go where they're mocked the further down a board you go. 

One name I like at 33 is Jack Bauer. 18, left handed, throws 100 MPH........and his name is Jack Bauer. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

I am also a fan of Jack Bauer if he is available.  We have to see who drops because the most recent Mock Draft on BA has shown a few outstanding players dropping because others have done well at the College World Series.  The top two pitchers in my book are Seth Hernandez and Jamie Arnold.  Because of his performance at the CWS Kade Anderson has jumped to the top of many charts with respect to the #1 pick.  I prefer Hernandez and Arnold.  If they drop to 15 it's a no brainer.  I doubt they will.

If nobody drops significantly, then we need to look at Bauer, Owen Jenkins at Catcher, Josh Hammond SS/P, a sleeper Elly De Le Cruz type SS named Quentin Young and a very young Steele Hall.