What I've noticed from Kristian Campbell's hot start

[Cameron Tran]

After a slow spring, MLB's #6 prospect has come out of the gates swinging to begin his rookie season. Through 7 games, Campbell is hitting .417 with 2 home runs, 6 walks and 6 strikeouts. On Wednesday, Campbell signed an 8 year, $60 million deal with options for a 9th and 10th year. That deal looks like a steal. Among qualified hitters, Campbell has the second highest OPS in the league, behind teammate Wilyer Abreu. So how has Campbell been able to start this hot, and will it continue?

Campbell's swing, which is about half an inch shorter than league average, combined with his strength, which gives him a fast swing rate (swing's faster than 75 mph) 17% higher than league average, has made it hard for opposing pitchers to find a weakness for them to exploit. In the first two games of the season, Texas attacked him with mainly fastballs and sliders, throwing the heater upwards of 30% each game and the slider 42% in game 2. Campbell hit both the slider and the fastball, with singles over 100 mph on both. He barreled up a 96 mph fastball from Jack Lieter for a single, before crushing a low 90s fastball for his first home run. In the series against Baltimore, he was challenged with hitting major league breaking balls, which he did, going 4-10 with 2 doubles, another homerun, and 2 walks. He added 3 more hits about 100 mph, including a 108mph double off Zach Eflin. That short swing has allowed him to catch up to pretty much anything, while his sneaky strength has given him some loud contact. 

Bat speed isn't the only thing Campbell has going for him. His 6 walks are 4th in the American League, and he pairs that with an early K% around the 60th percentile, showing advanced plate discipline for someone with only 1 full season of pro ball under their belt. Apart from a few ugly swings in his first few at-bats, Campbell has done a really good job of controlling the strike-zone, working deep into counts and getting a pitch he can hit. His 77% contact rate is comparable to where Devers was in his best seasons, except he swings the bat about 10% less and has an outside the zone swing rate 7% less. 

Campbell's batted ball data suggest that this has little to do with luck. Campbell sports an expected batting average of .295, with an xwoba of .395, both above the 70 percentile. Additionally, just 1 of Campbell's 10 base hits has been hit over 94 mph. Even if you put that number up to 100mph, Campbell would only lose 2 other base hits. He's hit pretty much everything that they've thrown at him. While this type of production almost certainly won't last, it's excited to see such a highly touted prospect suceed early. And if he can play at anything near this level, that 8 year deal will be a steal.  

[jgar658]

Great analysis, I feel he is Mookie Betts 2.0.

My impression is that he is a nice kid and is all business about baseball.    His ability to hit the ball to right is gold. 

Question for you:  If Abreu learns to hit left handed pitching?  Should he be extended?  He can catch the ball, throw, has power, and can run too,

[notin]

11 minutes ago, jgar658 said:

Great analysis, I feel he is Mookie Betts 2.0.

My impression is that he is a nice kid and is all business about baseball.    His ability to hit the ball to right is gold. 

Question for you:  If Abreu learns to hit left handed pitching?  Should he be extended?  He can catch the ball, throw, has power, and can run too,

Abreu has a long history struggling with LHP, but I won’t let that get in the way of an extension.  But right now he’s not even arbitration eligible…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, notin said:

Abreu has a long history struggling with LHP, but I won’t let that get in the way of an extension.  But right now he’s not even arbitration eligible…

Maybe the Sox should wait a while to see if Abreu catches any bad habits from Story, after wearing and breathing in the same furry Wally head from hitting back-to-back homers.

[moonslav59]

Even if Abreu ends up being a career platoon OF'er, he can be a great asset.

Tremendous defense and an .800+ OPS vs RHPs is extremely valuable. 

Since we have so many LH'd OF'er, we may think Abreu is just "duplicated value," but even with Anthony in the OF, Abreu is not crowding out anyone else.

Once Refsnyder retires, can use Rafaela as a platoon with Abreu or give Campbell some OF ABs vs lefties. JH Garcia may be an option, before too long, as well.

Our OF look well set up for many years to come. We may end up even trading someone, but Abreu is looking more and more like a keeper. (This from the poster who must have suggested a dozen possible Abreu trades, over the winter.)