Article: In Alex Bregman, the Red Sox Got Their Guy

[Daniel Fox]

After an offseason of complaining about the Red Sox front office, it's time to give credit where credit is due.

In the end, Craig Breslow played his cards perfectly.

It would have been really easy for him to give in to the pressure. For a month and a half, all Red Sox Nation could talk about was how cheap the team was. About how John Henry was a disinterested fraudster and how Sam Kennedy had once again misled the fanbase by saying the luxury tax threshold would not be an issue and that the club intended to build a team to win the AL East.

The easy move for Breslow would have been to just cave into Alex Bregman's demands. Bregman was exactly what the team needed: a proven winner, a right-handed bat with plus contact skills, and an elite defender. The problem, however, was that Bregman wanted a six- or seven-year deal. Such a contract would have kept Bregman well into his mid-30s, a point where he would not be nearly the same hitter or defender. With Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer already knocking on the door of the majors, signing Bregman into the 2030s would do nothing but clog an already crowded infield.

Yet because Red Sox fans were bored, because the narrative that the front office and ownership don’t care is so widespread, Breslow was deemed a fool for not offering such a deal. But Breslow knew all along that Bregman wanted to play in Boston and that longer deals with the Tigers and Blue Jays simply weren’t enticing to him. Breslow made the bet that Bregman and agent Scott Boras would blink first, and he won big. Bregman will now be in Boston from ages 31 to 33, when he can still be expected to be a four-win player and a vocal presence on a team that needs to learn how to win.

I know that there are fans who will complain about the $40 million AAV (closer to $30 million when you factor in the present value after deferrals), and while it is certain that Bregman is not in the same class as the other MLB players who make that salary, fixating on the salary misses the point. The Red Sox needed to overpay to get Bregman on the contract they wanted. I would rather pay Bregman $120 million for three years than for six years, because the first three years are where the real value is going to come from. This is what big-market teams are supposed to do: Use their financial muscle to bully other teams and get the player they want on the deal they want.

In addition, even if Bregman goes out and has a Story-esque three seasons, it will not decimate the roster. The Red Sox have the depth to pick up the slack if the bottom falls out, and one bad three-year contract is not going to sink a club. And that’s the worst-case scenario. Even a middle-case scenario has Bregman as a valuable presence both on and off the field to help guide a team with the pieces to contend in 2025 and beyond.

Before we get to what Bregman will bring to the Red Sox, I believe some apologies are in order (Not from me, but from everyone else). First, to Craig Breslow. If there was anybody out there who still thought that there was no real distinction between Chaim Bloom and Breslow, you now have your answer. Not only did Breslow rebuild the pitching infrastructure with immediate results, not only did he pull the trigger on a high-risk trade that involved multiple top prospects, but now he has added a perfectly executed, big-name free-agent signing to his resume. Time will tell if the moves pay off, but Breslow delivered on Kennedy’s promise of building a team that can contend for a division title.

Let’s talk about Kennedy a little bit more, because despite not owning the team or running the front office, he has been the scapegoat for everything that is wrong with the Red Sox. Yet now that the offseason is actually over, we can see that everything he said at the beginning of the offseason was true. The Red Sox got their right-handed bat. They upgraded their defense. They got their front-of-the-rotation arm. And no, the Luxury Tax threshold did not prove to be an issue; as per Red Sox Payroll in my Twitter replies, the Red Sox are expected to be around $10 to $15 million over the first tax. Yes, the last two offseasons were rough, and there are things that the Red Sox could and should have done differently, but at least in terms of 2024-2025, they delivered.

Finally, we have to talk about John Henry. Look, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Henry is the perfect owner, that he is justified in refusing to talk to the media, or even that he cares as much as he used to. What I will tell you, though, is that there is a reason that Henry has four World Series rings. He knows what it takes to win, and though he doesn’t consistently run the payrolls of the Dodgers, Yankees, or Mets, he will pay for premier talent when the time is right. Bregman now joins a list of free agents from Keith Foulke to J.D. Martinez who were deemed worthy of a financial investment from Henry.

Okay, let’s talk about Bregman, starting with what he brings to the offense. Though his OPS+ has declined in three straight seasons, you really couldn’t draw up a better two-hole hitter. He ranked in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate in 2024 and walked more than he struck out in both 2022 and 2023. He will never post elite exit velocities, but he knows how to pull the ball with authority, and with the Green Monster as his friend, you can pencil him in for at least 30 doubles and 20 home runs.

The key factor for Bregman and the Red Sox will be his success versus left-handers. Bregman has a career .862 OPS against them over his career, but has oddly had reverse platoon splits in each of the last three seasons. There’s nothing really to explain this phenomenon, and he had a nearly 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them last season, so there is a possibility that this can just be chalked up to a small sample size and poor batted-ball luck. With Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and Triston Casas slotted in around him, Bregman is going to face more than his fair share of southpaws, and his ability to do damage against them will have a huge impact on the sluggers around him.

On the defensive side of the ball, Bregman will reportedly shift from third base, where he was in the 91st percentile in Outs Above Average, to second base, where he has barely played in his major-league career. Now, there are a lot of factors for this move, including Devers’ ego and Masataka Yoshida’s presence and lack of versatility, but for 2025 at least, it appears Bregman will be manning the keystone full time.

The most important aspect of this move is whether Bregman buys in, which he reportedly does. It’s been well-known that Bregman’s role model was Dustin Pedroia, so maybe second base was the position he always wanted to play. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were growing pains in the finer points of the position, such as turning double plays and cut-offs, but giving a defender like Bregman more time to react to a ball is not a bad thing. If nothing else, Bregman should be an upgrade from the carousel that roamed the position last season, which will help out sinker-ballers Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello.

Before Bregman signed with the Red Sox, I still felt good about the team, but I felt they would be in the range of 87 or so wins and unlikely to compete for a division title. Though Bregman is more a contributing player than a true superstar, his skillset and leadership fit so precisely into what the Red Sox need that it’s impossible to say that this doesn’t make them significantly better. If the Crochet trade signaled that the Red Sox were willing to start thinking about the present, then the Bregman signing shows that they don’t just hope to make the playoffs but expect to. They may not be quite as good as the Yankees, but the Red Sox now go into 2025 with their strongest roster in years and are well-positioned for a fun summer and intense October.

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[moonslav59]

Very nice article.

Hearing a lot down here in Houston about the loss of Bregman's clubhouse attitude and how he helped this guy and that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Very nice article.

Hearing a lot down here in Houston about the loss of Bregman's clubhouse attitude and how he helped this guy and that.

How can the 75 analytical experts in every front office ever factor such attributes into their metrics? I tried asking AI, but it instigated 4.0 WAR against the robots assigned to vote for MVPs.