Article: Does Dustin Pedroia Have A Real Chance To Make The Hall of Fame?

[Alex Mayes]

Dustin Pedroia received enough votes to remain on the 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. Can recent voting trends help us determine whether he has a chance of being elected again? 

Dustin Pedroia received a respectable 11.9% of Hall of Fame votes in his first year on the ballot. This means he will appear on at least one more ballot during his eligibility period and could potentially stick around for quite a while as long as he remains over the five percent threshold for eligibility. Seeing Red Sox alumni Billy Wagner get elected on his final year on the ballot got me wondering just how likely it is that we get a chance to see Pedey or Pee Wee, if David Ortiz has anything to say about it, take the stage in Cooperstown to accept his gold plaque. I decided to do some digging into past votes and see how many players in the last ten years started around the same percentage, plus or minus two percent, and follow their voting trends to help determine if Pedroia has a chance of getting into the Hall during the next ten years.

Billy Wagner Starting Percentage: 10.5% in 2016
Elected? Yes, 2025

The most recent example could be found on the same ballot as Pedroia. In Wagner’s first year of eligibility, he garnered 10.5% of possible votes in 2016. His percentages stayed under 20% until 2020, when he jumped from 16.7% in 2019 to 31.7% in 2020. It jumped again in 2021 to 46.6%, up to 51% in 2022, to 68.1% in 2023, to 73.8% in 2024, to finally 82.5% this year. The fact that Wagner lasted all ten years on the ballot more than likely gave him the momentum he needed to reach the 75% threshold for induction finally. The groundswell of support from fans and the media likely aided it as well, which will benefit Pedroia as we go through the next few years as his personality has a national spotlight shone on it during the election periods.

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Scott Rolen Starting Percentage: 10.2% in 2018
Elected? Yes, 2023

Scott Rolen shot up the ballot counts during his six years of eligibility. Starting at 10.2% in 2018, we see the second example of someone beginning with a lower percentage than Pedroia and ending up getting into the Hall of Fame. Unlike Wagner, Rolen never faltered in his support, gaining votes each year. In 2019, he jumped to 17.2%, 35.3% in 2020, 52.9% in 2021, 63.2% in 2022, and 76.6% in 2023. Rolen likely benefitted from a run of weak voting classes, many of which consisted of notable PED users who are still struggling to gain traction with many voters. While Pedroia won’t have to deal with the number of PED users being eligible during his entire tenure on the ballot, he should benefit from a handful of weaker classes coming up over the next couple of years. Many considered Rolen a fringe Hall of Fame player during his first couple of years on the ballot, and that’s the same situation Pedroia finds himself in.

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Andy Pettitte Starting Percentage: 9.9% in 2019
Elected? Not yet, eligible through 2028

Andy Pettitte is a tough player to project for the Hall of Fame. His vote percentages have ebbed and flowed since his first year in 2019. He made a slight jump in 2020 to 11.3%, then another small jump in 2021 to 13.7%, but then fell to 10.7% in 2022 before gaining ground to a flat 17% in 2023, before losing ground again in 2024 to 13.5%, and finally landing at an impressive 27.9% this year. That jump should mean that he has positive momentum and will continue to climb over the next three years. This also shows that the “small hall” voters are becoming fewer and fewer while the “large hall” voters are starting to become the main voting class. This should also bode well for Pedroia down the line.

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Torii Hunter Starting Percentage: 9.5% in 2021
Elected? Not yet, eligible through 2030

So I fudged the minus two here by just a bit, but I thought not including Hunter wouldn’t be beneficial as, so far, he is trending in the wrong direction, and it seems as though the 2026 ballot will be his final chance to remain on the ballot. He started with 9.5% in 2021, fell hard to 5.3% in 2022, gained some in 2023 to 6.9%, and made another slight gain in 2024 to 7.3%, but fell drastically to 5.1% this year. While Hunter was a respectable player, he never really stood out on a national level, which is now reflected in his vote totals. Don’t be surprised to see him not reach the five percent threshold in 2026.

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Mark Buehrle Starting Percentage: 11% in 2021
Elected? Not yet, eligible through 2030

Mark Buehrle has also had a bit of ebb and flow in his voting percentages. He started with a flat 11% in 2021, fell to just 5.8% in 2022, rebounded to 10.8% in 2023, fell again to 8.3% in 2024, and bounced back to 11.4% in 2025. Unless there’s a similar groundswell to Wagner, it’s hard to envision Buehrle getting to the 75% of votes required to be elected to the Hall of Fame, although he should stick around longer than Hunter above. Both Buehrle and Hunter should offer Pedey a bit of pause if he’s looking at recent trends in voting, although his case for the Hall should be stronger than theirs.

The majority of the recent voting trends seem encouraging for Pedroia. The voting pool adds younger voters every year, which should also help him move in the right direction as younger voters have become more “large hall” voters and likely grew up watching Pedroia play during his prime. I project Dustin Pedroia to be elected to the Hall of Fame, but it will likely take until late in his eligibility. The next couple of years of first-time candidates aren’t incredibly strong, which should help push his percentage totals higher. Don’t be surprised if Pedroia starts to receive more grassroots support that begins to force the voting panel’s hand just a bit as well. Much of Boston’s fan base would want to see Pedey enshrined with the highest honor in baseball. Hopefully, the BBWAA voters feel the same way.

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[mvp 78]

No. If he had 4 more healthy years, he'd be in the conversation. 

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No. If he had 4 more healthy years, he'd be in the conversation. 

I think it's as simple as that too. 

[moonslav59]

I'd say no. Thanks to Machado.

[dgalehouse]

I would say he has a chance, although maybe not a real good one. Who knows what motivates some of the Hall of Fame voters ?  Different  voters seem to have different criteria. And personal biases also come into play. And I think some of them don't put much thought and effort into the whole process.