Article: Will There Be a Battle for the Fifth Starter Spot?

[Nick John]

The Red Sox have added three new starters in the past two weeks. What does that mean for the back end of the bullpen?

With the recent signing of Walker Buehler, it is safe to assume the Red Sox rotation is now set, barring an unanticipated trade. It looks to be in much better shape than it did in either 2023 or 2024. Thanks to the additions of Buehler, Garrett Crochet, and Patrick Sandoval, no longer will Garrett Whitlock have to try to make it through the entire season as a starter. At this moment, the front of the rotation should be comprised of Crochet, Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito, and Walker Buehler, but there's a legitimate argument to be had about whether Brayan Bello or Kutter Crawford is most deserving of the fifth spot.

At first glance, Bello seems like he should unquestionably get the job. The Sox have high hopes for the young right-hander and signed him to a six-year extension back in March. He’s younger than Crawford as well; he won't turn 26 until the middle of May while Crawford will be 29 at the start of April. Additionally, Bello has always been viewed as a starter, while Crawford spent 2022 and 2023 bouncing between the bullpen and rotation. It’s easy to see why Bello seems like the obvious favorite.

When you look closer, though, the two pitchers have some important similarities. Both had one good half and one awful half in 2024: Crawford ran a 3.00 ERA in the first half only to more than double it in the second half, while Bello dropped his ERA from 5.32 in the first half to 3.47 in the second. Both pitchers set career-highs in innings pitched, Bello with 162 1/3 and Crawford with 183 2/3. All together, the two pitchers had very similar seasons even though they relied on different styles. Bello induced one of the highest groundball rates in the league while Crawford ran one of the highest fly ball rates, resulting in plenty of homers. Crawford had the better results, but the advanced metrics like xERA and FIP preferred Bello. Crawford managed to limit hitters to a .223 batting average and a BABIP of just .247, but he led all of baseball with 34 home runs allowed. Bello had less luck (and a weak infield defense to contend with), and batters hit .252 against him despite a BABIP of .303. With new coach Jose Flores instructed to shore up the infield defense, Bello will hopefully get more help in 2025. The fact that he surrendered just 19 home runs will certainly be a point in his favor. But if Bello wants to claim the last spot in the rotation for himself, he'll limit his walks. His 9.1% walk rate ranked ninth among qualified starters.

Because the two players had similar overall stats on the season, it's possible that how they finished could play an outsized role in the decision, which would point toward Bello. Crawford went 3-9 losses to go with a 6.59 ERA in 13 games, a run that saw him surrender 20 home runs in 69 2/3 innings. Bello managed to pitch to a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, and allowed just 28 runs across 72 2/3 innings. Spring training may provide the duo a chance to battle it out for the last rotation spot (something Crawford has had to do in the past two spring trainings). They always say that competition brings out the best in others, so there’s a chance this opportunity elevates both pitchers to even higher heights. In the end, wonder whether the fifth rotation spot will go to Kutter Crawford or Brayan Bello is a pretty good problem to have.

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[mvp 78]

In Kutter's defense, around the time you start your sample, Kutter closes in on his career high in IP. A falloff is kind of expected at that point. 

Kutter through 29 starts:

161 IP, 4.08 ERA, 149 K, 44 BB, 4.63 FIP

Bello full season (30 starts):

162.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 153 K, 64 BB, 4.19 FIP

Post ASB:

Kutter 4 QS

Bello 5 QS

It's very close, but my worry is about Bello's bb rate (7th highest for pitchers with IP > 150 in 2024). Crawford's HR/9 was astronomical, but I believe that number is less elastic than bb rate. 

[Nick John]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

In Kutter's defense, around the time you start your sample, Kutter closes in on his career high in IP. A falloff is kind of expected at that point. 

Kutter through 29 starts:

161 IP, 4.08 ERA, 149 K, 44 BB, 4.63 FIP

Bello full season (30 starts):

162.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 153 K, 64 BB, 4.19 FIP

Post ASB:

Kutter 4 QS

Bello 5 QS

It's very close, but my worry is about Bello's bb rate (7th highest for pitchers with IP > 150 in 2024). Crawford's HR/9 was astronomical, but I believe that number is less elastic than bb rate. 

You're right. I forgot to mention it (and I've brought that up several times in other conversations) but this past season was the most that Crawford has pitched in a season since I believe 2018 and I feel was part of the reason for his drop off. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Nick John said:

You're right. I forgot to mention it (and I've brought that up several times in other conversations) but this past season was the most that Crawford has pitched in a season since I believe 2018 and I feel was part of the reason for his drop off. 

He hit 114 IP by the ASB and then proceeded to have that horrible 3 game stretch where he gave up 12 HR's. I'm not sold on him being better than Bello, but I think last season showed him that there's a lot he has to do to stay consistent for a full season (mental and physical conditioning). It's more likely they stick Bello in the rotation due to his extension and Crawford's history in the pen. I just wouldn't rule out Crawford looking better in ST the way he did in 2024 and some posters questioning this prior to Opening Day. 

[Nick John]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He hit 114 IP by the ASB and then proceeded to have that horrible 3 game stretch where he gave up 12 HR's. I'm not sold on him being better than Bello, but I think last season showed him that there's a lot he has to do to stay consistent for a full season (mental and physical conditioning). It's more likely they stick Bello in the rotation due to his extension and Crawford's history in the pen. I just wouldn't rule out Crawford looking better in ST the way he did in 2024 and some posters questioning this prior to Opening Day. 

Yeah. I think Crawford needs to show he can take that next step now when it comes to physical conditioning. I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter yet though (Houck struggled a couple years before his breakout this season), but right now I feel you have to give the 5th spot to Bello based on the extension they just gave him. Though that doesn't mean Crawford can't put his name into a fight for the 5th spot, especially if Giolito needs some time to ramp back up from his surgery.

[moonslav59]

I like Bello as the 5th starter and Crawford as the long man/ spot starter in the pen. I'm not sure why I don't view the choice as being all that close, as the reasons for choosing KC are compelling.

Maybe it's the HR rate (1.7 KC to 1.1 BB)

My guess is both KC and BB should get a chance for 28+ GS, if they pitch well enough, so maybe it doesn't matter much who is the opening season 5th starter.

I doubt we add another top SP'er, and if Sandoval returns, this summer, maybe we'll have a nice dilemma facing us.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Bello as the 5th starter and Crawford as the long man/ spot starter in the pen. I'm not sure why I don't view the choice as being all that close, as the reasons for choosing KC are compelling.

Maybe it's the HR rate (1.7 KC to 1.1 BB)

My guess is both KC and BB should get a chance for 28+ GS, if they pitch well enough, so maybe it doesn't matter much who is the opening season 5th starter.

I doubt we add another top SP'er, and if Sandoval returns, this summer, maybe we'll have a nice dilemma facing us.

In 2023, Bello had the higher HR/9 than Crawford. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In 2023, Bello had the higher HR/9 than Crawford. 

Yes, 1.4 to 1.2, but they seem to be heading in different directions.

Maybe my #1 reason for liking Bello more is the 58 GS in the last 2 seasons. His career HR/9 is 1.1. His 8 Ks to 3BBs per 9 and 4.14 FIP are not great. His .724 OPSA is underwhelming and the .796 second half is worrisome.

Crawford is close on GS'd (56 in 2 yrs) with a 1.5 HR/9 career mark. His K/BB is slightly better than Bello (8.5 to 2.5 per 9.) His 4.35 career FIP is close, too.

I guess it could come down to who looks better in ST'ing.