Will There Be a Battle for the Fifth Starter Spot?

With the recent signing of Walker Buehler, it is safe to assume the Red Sox rotation is now set, barring an unanticipated trade. It looks to be in much better shape than it did in either 2023 or 2024. Thanks to the additions of Buehler, Garrett Crochet, and Patrick Sandoval, no longer will Garrett Whitlock have to try to make it through the entire season as a starter. At this moment, the front of the rotation should be comprised of Crochet, Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito, and Walker Buehler, but there's a legitimate argument to be had about whether Brayan Bello or Kutter Crawford is most deserving of the fifth spot.

At first glance, Bello seems like he should unquestionably get the job. The Sox have high hopes for the young right-hander and signed him to a six-year extension back in March. He’s younger than Crawford as well; he won't turn 26 until the middle of May while Crawford will be 29 at the start of April. Additionally, Bello has always been viewed as a starter, while Crawford spent 2022 and 2023 bouncing between the bullpen and rotation. It’s easy to see why Bello seems like the obvious favorite.

When you look closer, though, the two pitchers have some important similarities. Both had one good half and one awful half in 2024: Crawford ran a 3.00 ERA in the first half only to more than double it in the second half, while Bello dropped his ERA from 5.32 in the first half to 3.47 in the second. Both pitchers set career-highs in innings pitched, Bello with 162 1/3 and Crawford with 183 2/3. All together, the two pitchers had very similar seasons even though they relied on different styles. Bello induced one of the highest groundball rates in the league while Crawford ran one of the highest fly ball rates, resulting in plenty of homers. Crawford had the better results, but the advanced metrics like xERA and FIP preferred Bello. Crawford managed to limit hitters to a .223 batting average and a BABIP of just .247, but he led all of baseball with 34 home runs allowed. Bello had less luck (and a weak infield defense to contend with), and batters hit .252 against him despite a BABIP of .303. With new coach Jose Flores instructed to shore up the infield defense, Bello will hopefully get more help in 2025. The fact that he surrendered just 19 home runs will certainly be a point in his favor. But if Bello wants to claim the last spot in the rotation for himself, he'll limit his walks. His 9.1% walk rate ranked ninth among qualified starters.

Because the two players had similar overall stats on the season, it's possible that how they finished could play an outsized role in the decision, which would point toward Bello. Crawford went 3-9 losses to go with a 6.59 ERA in 13 games, a run that saw him surrender 20 home runs in 69 2/3 innings. Bello managed to pitch to a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, and allowed just 28 runs across 72 2/3 innings. Spring training may provide the duo a chance to battle it out for the last rotation spot (something Crawford has had to do in the past two spring trainings). They always say that competition brings out the best in others, so there’s a chance this opportunity elevates both pitchers to even higher heights. In the end, wonder whether the fifth rotation spot will go to Kutter Crawford or Brayan Bello is a pretty good problem to have.