Article: A Postmortem On The 2024 Red Sox: Work Needs To Be Done But Hope Exists

[Daniel Fox]

Let's start with the positives because things are going to be really negative really quickly.

The Red Sox were better in 2024 than they were in either 2022 or 2023. They won more games and didn't suffer the embarrassment of finishing last. They cut their team ERA by over half a run. They saw core players like Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck take significant steps forward. They gave fewer at-bats to Quad-A veterans and instead rounded out their roster with interesting young players looking to establish themselves in the big leagues. This season was more fun, competitive, and hopeful than the last two campaigns.

However, there is no getting around the fact that the Red Sox should be preparing to go to Baltimore right now. The Tigers and the Royals are not better than them, and it is frankly embarrassing that the Red Sox will be on their couch in October while Michael Massey and Colt Keith bat third in a postseason lineup. Their second-half performance, which as of right now has them at 27-36, is unacceptable, and they have no one to blame for missing the postseason but themselves.

When you miss a postseason by a few games, it is easy to look back at a moment or two that could have changed the season had it gone differently, but I'm going to resist the urge to single out any player or game. Instead, I'm going to identify three stretches that sunk them in their pursuit of October:

1. A 4-10 stretch in the middle of May in which an offense missing Trevor Story, Triston Casas, and Masataka Yoshida simply couldn't score any runs.
2. A 2-7 stretch coming out of the All-Star break in which a bullpen missing Chris Martin and Justin Slaten imploded on a nightly basis.
3. A 3-12 stretch at the end of August/beginning of September in which their offense was abysmal.

Each disaster came at a different point of the season, but they all tell a similar tale: There wasn't enough MLB-quality depth to step up when guys got hurt. When Casas got injured, the Red Sox scrambled the waiver wire for Garrett Cooper and Dominic Smith. When Martin and Slaten went down, the Red Sox were forced to trot out career minor leaguers Cam Booser, Bailey Horn, and Zack Kelly in high-leverage spots. And when the Red Sox's inept offense was causing their season to slip away, there was nobody to turn to to pick up the slack.

The shortcomings in the season were a direct result of indifference in the offseason. The Red Sox signed exactly one player who played on the major league team in 2024: Cooper Criswell, who signed for a whopping $1 million and was serviceable in a swingman role. The Red Sox backed themselves into a hole where everything had to go perfectly for them to have a chance to compete, and when even a couple of players went down, nobody was qualified to step up.

 There are myriad other things to unpack with the 2025 Boston Red Sox, such as Connor Wong's defense, Rafael Devers' immaturity, and Brayan Bello's inconsistencies, but I will save all of that for another day. For now, let's look ahead to 2025.
I'm going to start by saying this: The Red Sox could do absolutely nothing this offseason, and with the return of Garrett Whitlock and Lucas Giolito and full seasons from Casas and Story, they could be a better team heading into next year. But that isn't good enough. Four major issues that need to be addressed moving forward:

1. Cutting down on the third-worst strikeout rate in baseball
2. More lefty-righty balance in the lineup
3. A true number-one pitcher
4. Another lefty reliever

With the resources and talent at the major league and minor league levels, there is no reason the Red Sox can't address every need. All it will take is a little commitment from ownership and a desire from management to add to the current roster rather than wait for their young players to develop.

My worst fear for this offseason, which was hinted at by Craig Breslow in his most recent comments, is that the Red Sox are so confident in their young players that they feel they don't need to spend in free agency or aggressively pursue the trade market. I am reminded of a quote in Alex Speier's book "Homegrown" from Dave Dombrowski when he took over as President of Baseball Operations in 2015. Dombrowski praised the team's young players but pointedly told the Red Sox front office staff that they couldn't have been that good if they finished last in back-to-back years.

The same ideology applies nearly a decade later. You cannot bank on Ceddanne Rafaela cutting down on his 45% chase rate, Wilyer Abreu magically being able to hit lefties, or Connor Wong not being the worst framer in the league. Three straight playoff misses are unacceptable, and the over-reliance on young, flawed players is a major reason for that. In his first offseason, Dombrowski acquired Craig Kimbrel and David Price, two players instrumental in their AL East title in 2016 and World Series Championship in 2018. It is that same sort of aggressiveness that Breslow needs to have this offseason.

Overall, as frustrating as the last three seasons have been, I am optimistic about the future of the organization. Anyone who claims that the Red Sox are not close to seriously contending just did not watch this season, and that doesn't factor in the four Top-25 prospects at Triple-A. It will be a fascinating offseason as Breslow decides which players will be part of the next great team and which are expendable, and I look forward to breaking it all down.

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[Bellhorn04]

Nicely balanced takes, thanks.

[mvp 78]

"My worst fear for this offseason, which was hinted at by Craig Breslow in his most recent comments, is that the Red Sox are so confident in their young players that they feel they don't need to spend in free agency or aggressively pursue the trade market."

That's been my fear going back to last offseason. John Henry is putting too much on these young players coming up. Not all of them will work out. Too many of them are offensive players. Watch his appearance at the end of Moneyball to see the future of the Sox. He wants the real estate empire and a cheap payroll. Unfortunately, that needle isn't so easy to thread. 

This year felt like another punt year going into it. I have a sinking feeling about next season already. I don't think there will be playoffs. I think there will be a lot of fun players to watch, but we're back to "wait 'til next year."