Which FA Starter Who Has Been Signed Would You have Wanted for the Sox?

[moonslav59]

Any starter under 130 IP did not, in fact, get the job done.

 

Nice line to pick.

 

Wacha places 65 in IP as a SP'er from 2022-2023. Out of 150 SP slots in MLB, it's not good, but it is far better than most.

 

IP 2022-2023 as SP:

 

267 Pivetts

262 Wacha

260 R Hill (2 teams)

253 Nate (BOS & TEX)

209 Bello (understandable, since he was called up in '22)

169 Crawford

122 Houck

108 Sale

 

367 Monty

346 Gio

308 Snell

304 M Perez

303 S Gray

272 Stroman

245 ERod

 

Edited January 4, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Nice line to pick.

 

Wacha places 65 in IP as a SP'er from 2022-2023. Out of 150 SP slots in MLB, it's not good, but it is far better than most.

 

So Wacha was actually in the top half.

 

The game has changed.

[moonslav59]

So Wacha was actually in the top half.

 

The game has changed.

 

In all fairness, better pitchers like Bello were not in MLB in all of 2022.

 

He is likely about in the middle of FT SP'ers IP and GS from 2-22-2023 and 2021-2023.

 

2021-2023 GS (225 SP'ers with 100+ IP

94 Monty

84 R Hill

83 Stroman, Snell

82 Gray

79 Pivetta

77 Naate

74 Perez, ERod

70 Wacha (58th in MLB!)

 

That's top 2 tier out of 5 tiers.

 

Adjust for younger pitchers not in the bigs all 3 years, and he's likely about 75th out of 150.

 

 

[mvp 78]

262 Wacha

260 R Hill (2 teams)

 

 

 

When you are neck and neck with Rich Hill for Innings, it's not a good thing.

[Dipre]

When you are neck and neck with Rich Hill for Innings, it's not a good thing.

 

Exactly.

[moonslav59]

When you are neck and neck with Rich Hill for Innings, it's not a good thing.

 

No, it's not, but you keep focusing on just the bad stats, when you often cite WAR.

 

ERA- and WHIP are not meaningless stats, either. He is first in WHIP among the sample of pitchers in question. He is 3rd in ERA-.

 

Does that mean nothing?

[moonslav59]

In all fairness, better pitchers like Bello were not in MLB in all of 2022.

 

He is likely about in the middle of FT SP'ers IP and GS from 2-22-2023 and 2021-2023.

 

2021-2023 GS (225 SP'ers with 100+ IP

94 Monty

84 R Hill

83 Stroman, Snell

82 Gray

79 Pivetta

77 Naate

74 Perez, ERod

70 Wacha (58th in MLB!)

 

That's top 2 tier out of 5 tiers.

 

Adjust for younger pitchers not in the bigs all 3 years, and he's likely about 75th out of 150.

 

 

 

Here is a better way to look at it. GS split seasons. Wacha averaged 23.3 GS per season over the last 3 seasons.

 

150 slots for SP (5 x 30 teams) x 3 seasons= 450.

269 pitchers started 24 game over the last 3 seasons in any given season. That is over half or 450.

 

90 top tier out of 5

91-180 2nd tier

181-270 3rd tier which is where Wacha sits (high end of 3rd tier.) High end middle

271-360 4th tier

361-450 5th tier

 

He's high end middle and this is his worst stat over the last 3 years.

[mvp 78]

No, it's not, but you keep focusing on just the bad stats, when you often cite WAR.

 

ERA- and WHIP are not meaningless stats, either. He is first in WHIP among the sample of pitchers in question. He is 3rd in ERA-.

 

Does that mean nothing?

 

He's being paid 16M AAV by the Royals to not pitch a full season. He's a decent pitcher, but can't stay healthy. His innings are what defines his overall value to me.

[moonslav59]

He's being paid 16M AAV by the Royals to not pitch a full season. He's a decent pitcher, but can't stay healthy. His innings are what defines his overall value to me.

 

And nothing else counts, even when his IP are about middle of the pack. Got it.

[Bellhorn04]

And nothing else counts, even when his IP are about middle of the pack. Got it.

 

It's yet another daft argument here on Talksox, with Dipre and mvp going old school on Wacha's innings and ignoring all else.

 

And I know you, like me, were interested in Wacha AS A SUPPLEMENTARY PIECE ONLY.

 

We really need some actual encouraging Red Sox news.

[moonslav59]

It's yet another daft argument here on Talksox, with Dipre and mvp going old school on Wacha's innings and ignoring all else.

 

And I know you, like me, were interested in Wacha AS A SUPPLEMENTARY PIECE ONLY.

 

We really need some actual encouraging Red Sox news.

 

Yes, I was not super high on Wacha (or Giolito.) To me, both are risky for differing reasons. It's a close call, and I have no issues with anyone thinking Gio is a better gamble.

 

Gio blows Wacha away in IP and GS, but Wacha is about middle of the road on both, and those are his worst numbers out of any.

 

xFIP is not great, and MVP uses that stat often, so he is not singling out an area that does not usually matter to him. I respect that, but to me, we should not ignore WHIP, ERA- and ERA+, either, and Wacha has looked very good in those areas for the last 2 or 3 years.

 

I did not expect this discussion to go on this long, but what else do we have to talk about? Snell going to the Yanks? Monty going somewhere else? Imanaga or Stroman as our last gasp stab at something useful?

[mvp 78]

xFIP is not great

 

Wrong!

[Dipre]

Because he's old, doesn't strike guys out, relies on defense (the red sox are average at best) and is not going to provide the ip the sox need even as a complementary piece.

 

You also clearly only read the parts of our posts that fit your narrative due to a Dojjian fixation with a mediocre starting pitcher. Please stop.

[moonslav59]

Wrong!

 

It misses the pitchers who consistently get outs without K's.

 

I get how that is an issue with a team that fields like we do, but there is a hole in xFIP, as with any stat.

 

Do you think xFIP outweighs ERA- and WHIP, combined?

[Bellhorn04]

Because he's old, doesn't strike guys out, relies on defense (the red sox are average at best) and is not going to provide the ip the sox need even as a complementary piece.

 

You also clearly only read the parts of our posts that fit your narrative due to a Dojjian fixation with a mediocre starting pitcher. Please stop.

 

I'm not fixated, I'm really not. The sad thing is that mediocre pitchers would improve the 2024 Red Sox rotation as it's currently constituted.

[moonslav59]

I'm not fixated, I'm really not. The sad thing is that mediocre pitchers would improve the 2024 Red Sox rotation as it's currently constituted.

 

I don't think any of us are fixated. I see guys like Wacha, Giolito, Lugo and a few others as afterthoughts or secondary types of signings to the hoped for top end SP'er, we have yet to add or may never add.

 

There isn't much to talk about.

 

Giolito is not much different from any of the others I mentioned plus a few more I can't think of, right now.

 

 

 

[Dipre]

Of those you mentioned, only one guy has frontline starter upside,.and it's the one we got. My problem is this team's putching development staff, which hasn't been able to diferentiate an elbow from a prostate for a while now.

[mvp 78]

It misses the pitchers who consistently get outs without K's.

 

I get how that is an issue with a team that fields like we do, but there is a hole in xFIP, as with any stat.

 

Do you think xFIP outweighs ERA- and WHIP, combined?

 

"Consistently get outs without k's."

 

Both '22 and '23 were below average BABIP years for Wacha. What was the consistency there? Seems more like luck to me!

 

xFIP > (ERA- + WHIP)

[mvp 78]

Of those you mentioned, only one guy has frontline starter upside,.and it's the one we got. My problem is this team's putching development staff, which hasn't been able to diferentiate an elbow from a prostate for a while now.

 

My worry is that they didn't do enough of a purge after Bloom left.

[moonslav59]

"Consistently get outs without k's."

 

Both '22 and '23 were below average BABIP years for Wacha. What was the consistency there? Seems more like luck to me!

 

xFIP > (ERA- + WHIP)

 

Maybe, but I was not specifically referring to Wacha.

 

The poster boy might be Mark Buehrle, who had a career 5.1 K/9 rate, but he pitched 16 seasons in MLB with a 3.81 ERA. His xFIP was 4.22.

 

From 2000 to 2015, he was 7th in fWAR at 42.8.

 

Out of 400 pitchers with 400+ IP in that period, he placed:

 

83rd in ERA- at 84 (near or tied with Lester, Harden, Cole)

117 ERA+

134th in ERA

 

T156th in WHIP at 1.28

 

.291 BAbip

238th in xFIP

 

He might be the extreme case, but I do believe some good but low K pitchers suffer from xFIP focus- just not to this level.

 

I also don't think BAbip is 100% luck. Sometimes, when a pitcher has a better year than his norm, his hard hit% and LD% are down, significantly, too.

 

Wacha's best 4 ERA years:

2014 .288 BAbip/ 32.1 HH%. 21% SH%, 22.1 LD%

2015 .272 BAbip/ 29.7 HH%, 20.6 SH%, 22.2 LD%

2022 .260 BAbip/ 30.3%, 18.9%, 20.5%

2023 .266 BAbip/ 30.0%, 15.4%, 22.5%

 

Career:

BAbip: .295

Hard hit %: 33%

Soft hit %: 17.3%

LD %: 22.6%

 

Wacha beat his career stats in 11 of these 12 indicators of pitching better, so of course his BAbip should be lower to some extent. Maybe some was luck, but not all of it.

Edited January 5, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but I was not specifically referring to Wacha.

 

The poster boy might be Mark Buehrle, who had a career 5.1 K/9 rate, but he pitched 16 seasons in MLB with a 3.81 ERA. His xFIP was 4.22.

 

From 2000 to 2015, he was 7th in fWAR at 42.8.

 

Out of 400 pitchers with 400+ IP in that period, he placed:

 

83rd in ERA- at 84 (near or tied with Lester, Harden, Cole)

117 ERA+

134th in ERA

 

T156th in WHIP at 1.28

 

.291 BAbip

238th in xFIP

 

He might be the extreme case, but I do believe some good but low K pitchers suffer from xFIP focus- just not to this level.

 

I tend to agree. If you look at Buehrle's K rate you'd think the guy must have been a bum.

 

Buehrle seemed like one of those guys hitters made "comfortable outs" against, to use a term I always liked.

[mvp 78]

Maybe, but I was not specifically referring to Wacha.

 

The poster boy might be Mark Buehrle, who had a career 5.1 K/9 rate, but he pitched 16 seasons in MLB with a 3.81 ERA. His xFIP was 4.22.

 

From 2000 to 2015, he was 7th in fWAR at 42.8.

 

Out of 400 pitchers with 400+ IP in that period, he placed:

 

83rd in ERA- at 84 (near or tied with Lester, Harden, Cole)

117 ERA+

134th in ERA

 

T156th in WHIP at 1.28

 

.291 BAbip

238th in xFIP

 

He might be the extreme case, but I do believe some good but low K pitchers suffer from xFIP focus- just not to this level.

 

SOME pitchers may look worse under a certain metric or stat, but we were talking specifically about your obsession with Michael Wacha, not the near HOF talent Mark Buehrle. There is an exception to almost everything.

 

For example, Steamer typically does an ok job at projecting stats for the following year, but what does it project Wacha to throw 156 Innings when that bum hasn't thrown over 135 innings since 2017?!?!? He's going to pull 4 additional starts out of his ass when he hasn't done so the previous 6 seasons?!?!?! Wild!

[moonslav59]

I tend to agree. If you look at Buehrle's K rate you'd think the guy must have been a bum.

 

Buehrle seemed like one of those guys hitters made "comfortable outs" against, to use a term I always liked.

 

Of course, the defensive team behind him matters more, and I can that being a big worry with Wacha and the 2024 Sox, but it's not like the 2022 Sox D was great.

[moonslav59]

SOME pitchers may look worse under a certain metric or stat, but we were talking specifically about your obsession with Michael Wacha, not the near HOF talent Mark Buehrle. There is an exception to almost everything.

 

For example, Steamer typically does an ok job at projecting stats for the following year, but what does it project Wacha to throw 156 Innings when that bum hasn't thrown over 135 innings since 2017?!?!? He's going to pull 4 additional starts out of his ass when he hasn't done so the previous 6 seasons?!?!?! Wild!

 

If you guys stop bashing Wacha, and I'll hardly ever talk about him. Your anti-Wacha obsession is about equal to my obsession- non existent.

 

I like him about the same as Giolito, based on his recent 2 years vs Gio's. I also like Imanaga and Lugo more than most. I liked Gray and ERod. I like Monty and Snell to a lesser degree.

 

I liked Yamo. There is not much discussion over them, but I like(d) all of them more than Wacha, except maybe Lugo.

[mvp 78]

If you guys stop bashing Wacha, and I'll hardly ever talk about him.

 

Bet.

[Bellhorn04]

Bet.

 

Dipre can't help himself though.

[moonslav59]

SOME pitchers may look worse under a certain metric or stat, but we were talking specifically about your obsession with Michael Wacha, not the near HOF talent Mark Buehrle. There is an exception to almost everything.

 

For example, Steamer typically does an ok job at projecting stats for the following year, but what does it project Wacha to throw 156 Innings when that bum hasn't thrown over 135 innings since 2017?!?!? He's going to pull 4 additional starts out of his ass when he hasn't done so the previous 6 seasons?!?!?! Wild!

 

STEAMER is not a metric or stat.

 

I've never argued xFIP is a bad stat. I don't think it's a great one, due to missing big on guys like Buehrle and others to lesser extents.

 

All stats and metrics have holes in them, or exceptions. I'm not sure Wacha is an example of an exception, but those BAbip numbers that were lower than his norm could have been partially fueled by not allowing as many hard hit balls as his norm.

[mvp 78]

Dipre can't help himself though.

 

I have no control over the Juggernaut. He just wants to run people over.

[mvp 78]

STEAMER is not a metric or stat.

 

I've never argued xFIP is a bad stat. I don't think it's a great one, due to missing big on guys like Buehrle and others to lesser extents.

 

All stats and metrics have holes in them, or exceptions. I'm not sure Wacha is an example of an exception, but those BAbip numbers that were lower than his norm could have been partially fueled by not allowing as many hard hit balls as his norm.

 

I didn't say Steamer was a stat GOOBER. I said there was an exception to almost EVERYTHING. Nice to know that you couldn't help yourself with another post though....

[moonslav59]

Bet.

 

The bet will be null in 2 minutes, as someone will bash Wacha.

 

Look, there is 10 guys or more I'd prefer over him. I like him a little more than Gio and maybe a bit more than a few posters, here. I don't think my position is all that extreme.