2023 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Walter, maybe. Perales and Mata no way.

 

Perales is really not doing well.

 

6.75 in A- at age 20.

 

While Drohan is 24, he's lighting up AA after jumping from #26 to #13 over the winter.

 

Mata will be hard to pass by the midsummer rankings, but I could see him passing Perales. (In all fairness, Perales jumped from unranked to 10th from last summer's rankings to the fall one.)

[Hugh2]

Perales is really not doing well.

 

6.75 in A- at age 20.

 

While Drohan is 24, he's lighting up AA after jumping from #26 to #13 over the winter.

 

Mata will be hard to pass by the midsummer rankings, but I could see him passing Perales. (In all fairness, Perales jumped from unranked to 10th from last summer's rankings to the fall one.)

 

I can’t speak for Soxprospects.com but I’d be surprised if a month of baseball from a 20 year old in A ball is going to change their projection over a 24 year old who has performed well In AA.

 

The massive jump Perales took was due to a testament to the ceiling they think he may posses. I really don’t think he gets passed by Drohan.

Edited April 30, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

I can’t speak for Soxprospects.com but I’d be surprised if a month of baseball from a 20 year old in A ball is going to change their projection over a 24 year old who has performed well In AA.

 

The massive jump Perales took was due to a testament to the ceiling they think he may posses. I really don’t think he gets passed by Drohan.

 

Certainly, if Perales turns things around, he'll stay ahead.

 

I'm also assuming Drohan keeps mowing guys down. I'm hoping he moves up to AAA, at some point.

 

On another note, the Sea Dogs scored 4 in the 10.

Kavadas walked 4 times.

Lugo 3-5 with 3 rbi & two 2Bs

Koss 2-5 w BB & 3B

 

Greenville got killed, again. Nothing much to report, except 2BBs by Ferguson.

 

[Hugh2]

Certainly, if Perales turns things around, he'll stay ahead.

 

I'm also assuming Drohan keeps mowing guys down. I'm hoping he moves up to AAA, at some point.

 

On another note, the Sea Dogs scored 4 in the 10.

Kavadas walked 4 times.

Lugo 3-5 with 3 rbi & two 2Bs

Koss 2-5 w BB & 3B

 

Greenville got killed, again. Nothing much to report, except 2BBs by Ferguson.

 

 

I’ve been following soxprospects for a while, and while again I can’t speak for them I’d be very surprised if they jumped Drohan ahead of him. They don’t move guys up and down a lot month to month the higher up the list you go when there’s less fluidity. They also go by their scouting reports and not necessarily the stats. I think they even talked about this on either their last or second to last podcast.

[moonslav59]

I’ve been following soxprospects for a while, and while again I can’t speak for them I’d be very surprised if they jumped Drohan ahead of him. They don’t move guys up and down a lot month to month the higher up the list you go when there’s less fluidity. They also go by their scouting reports and not necessarily the stats. I think they even talked about this on either their last or second to last podcast.

 

Agreed, there is not much jumping in the top 10.

 

I did find a few examples of jumps from one ranking to the next::

 

Downs from 5 to 13 from Fall 21 to spring '22 and Gilbert 9 to 18 in the same time.

 

Not many drop from Spring to Summer.

Ward 8 to 17 in '21

2019: Mata 10 to 4 and DHern 2 to 5 (Mata jumped DHern)

2018: many jumped Sam Travis as he dropped from #5 to #20. (Beeks 13>6)

2017: Dalbec 5>9- and Raudes #8>#20 (Mata #16>#6)

2015: #6 ERod> #1 Jumped Devers, Moncada, Margot & Owens

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Jordan with his 4th tater of the season!

[Hugh2]

Agreed, there is not much jumping in the top 10.

 

I did find a few examples of jumps from one ranking to the next::

 

Downs from 5 to 13 from Fall 21 to spring '22 and Gilbert 9 to 18 in the same time.

 

Not many drop from Spring to Summer.

Ward 8 to 17 in '21

2019: Mata 10 to 4 and DHern 2 to 5 (Mata jumped DHern)

2018: many jumped Sam Travis as he dropped from #5 to #20. (Beeks 13>6)

2017: Dalbec 5>9- and Raudes #8>#20 (Mata #16>#6)

2015: #6 ERod> #1 Jumped Devers, Moncada, Margot & Owens

 

 

 

Those are good examples but remember, they didn’t immediately move those guys down either. By the time Downs fell he was much older in AAA. Perales is one of the youngest players in his league. So, I think he’d have to struggle all year, and if he did I could see him and Drohan sort of flipping places.

 

Given his profile I don’t think they’d drop Perales more than a few spots unless he’s struggling all year and starts off next year bad too.

[moonslav59]

Those are good examples but remember, they didn’t immediately move those guys down either. By the time Downs fell he was much older in AAA. Perales is one of the youngest players in his league. So, I think he’d have to struggle all year, and if he did I could see him and Drohan sort of flipping places.

 

Given his profile I don’t think they’d drop Perales more than a few spots unless he’s struggling all year and starts off next year bad too.

 

I listed guys that moved from one ranking to the very next.

 

The thing about Perales, is that he was injured, but jumped so high, I do wonder if they may end up thinking they go over-excited, assuming he keeps struggling until the summer rankings.

 

They jumped Drohan a ton over the winter, and now he is confirming they were not wrong.

 

I think there is a chance they flip, if they both keep pitching like they are now.

 

It's no slight on Perales.

[Hugh2]

I listed guys that moved from one ranking to the very next.

 

The thing about Perales, is that he was injured, but jumped so high, I do wonder if they may end up thinking they go over-excited, assuming he keeps struggling until the summer rankings.

 

They jumped Drohan a ton over the winter, and now he is confirming they were not wrong.

 

I think there is a chance they flip, if they both keep pitching like they are now.

 

It's no slight on Perales.

 

A lot of the guys Drohan jumped over weren't ceiling guys like Perales. There's a difference jumping a few spots from 40-60 range vs. the top 20. Heck I'd say jumping from 12-7 is more of a jump than outside the top 60 to something like 25.

 

I don't think it's impossible that Drohan moves ahead of him, I just don't think they're going to do it on the next rankings update, which should be due out any hour. It's not their MO to just move guys around month to month based on the box score.

[Hugh2]

They have to weigh so much. If a guy has talent, but can't get results because command and control suck, or he has trouble with his mechanics etc etc etc. and he's 23/24 and in the high minors he's going to drop in value.

 

But a 20-year-old? that's not very uncommon at all to struggle with those things. If his stuff is still there I highly doubt he moves much at all unless he REALLY stinks all year and there's a tick down in his stuff. etc. velocity drop etc etc.

[moonslav59]

They have to weigh so much. If a guy has talent, but can't get results because command and control suck, or he has trouble with his mechanics etc etc etc. and he's 23/24 and in the high minors he's going to drop in value.

 

But a 20-year-old? that's not very uncommon at all to struggle with those things. If his stuff is still there I highly doubt he moves much at all unless he REALLY stinks all year and there's a tick down in his stuff. etc. velocity drop etc etc.

 

The only reason I still see a flip as possible, is just how little we know about Perales. His giant jump was based on a small sample (38 IP in '22) and speculation. It seems, to me, that could be strongly affected by a larger sample size in 2023 that may not look so good.

 

He was a highly-regarded prospect back in 2019, and I think that plays into the speculation- rightly so, but that was a long time ago.

[Hugh2]

The only reason I still see a flip as possible, is just how little we know about Perales. His giant jump was based on a small sample (38 IP in '22) and speculation. It seems, to me, that could be strongly affected by a larger sample size in 2023 that may not look so good.

 

He was a highly-regarded prospect back in 2019, and I think that plays into the speculation- rightly so, but that was a long time ago.

 

That's just the thing, scouts over at soxprospects and other places know a LOT more about him than me or you. My opinion on this matter is 100% conjecture to be fair but based on my experience following soxprospects. Moving a guy like Perales down after a month as a 20 year old in his first full season of ball seem 100% against their typical moves.

[mvp 78]

Perales is really not doing well.

 

6.75 in A- at age 20.

 

While Drohan is 24, he's lighting up AA after jumping from #26 to #13 over the winter.

 

Mata will be hard to pass by the midsummer rankings, but I could see him passing Perales. (In all fairness, Perales jumped from unranked to 10th from last summer's rankings to the fall one.)

 

I mean, you could just look at the game logs...

 

1: 0.2 IP, 4 ER

2: 2.1 IP, 3 ER

3: 4 IP, 1 ER

4: 5 IP, 1 ER

 

I would say he's trending in the right direction the last two starts.

[moonslav59]

I mean, you could just look at the game logs...

 

1: 0.2 IP, 4 ER

2: 2.1 IP, 3 ER

3: 4 IP, 1 ER

4: 5 IP, 1 ER

 

I would say he's trending in the right direction the last two starts.

 

I don't expect it to happen. I just said it might.

 

Drohan is looking great.

[mvp 78]

Walter, maybe. Perales and Mata no way.

 

I bet the next rankings look like:

Mayer

Casas

Bleis

Rafaela

Yorke

Mata

Romero

Perales

Walter

Drohan

Paulino

Anthony

Valdez

Lugo

Wikelman

ERC

Hickey

Jordan

Murphy

Kavadas

[mvp 78]

I don't expect it to happen. I just said it might.

 

Drohan is looking great.

 

My comment was more about you saying "he's not doing well."

[Hugh2]

I bet the next rankings look like:

Mayer

Casas

Bleis

Rafaela

Yorke

Mata

Romero

Perales

Walter

Drohan

Paulino

Anthony

Valdez

Lugo

Wikelman

ERC

Hickey

Jordan

Murphy

Kavadas

 

Casas will graduate in the next rankings.

[moonslav59]

My comment was more about you saying "he's not doing well."

 

Point taken.

 

There is still one major issue continuing: over those last 3 games (11.1 IP), he has 11 BBs and 9 Ks.

[moonslav59]

Casas will graduate in the next rankings.

 

If the mid season rankings came out, now, it might look like:

 

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Yorke

5. Mata

6. Romero

7. Perales

8. Draohan

9. Walter

10. Valdez

11. Anthony

12. Lugo

13. Paulino

14. ERC

15. Wikelman

[Hugh2]

Point taken.

 

There is still one major issue continuing: over those last 3 games (11.1 IP), he has 11 BBs and 9 Ks.

 

You're talking about a 20-year-old kid in A ball who has never pitched more than 35 innings in a season. He's not being ranked because of his stats right now, I highly doubt anyone considers this a "major concern" Moon I think you're letting your personal bias on scouting box scores on players cloud your judgment here. I don't think the ceiling or projection has changed one thread on Perales. It's going to take a lot more than one month of results to move them. He was not ranked because of his stats, he is ranked where he is because of his raw stuff is, it's very natural to have raw stuff, a high ceiling but very poor results because you're very young and just learning a routine.

 

I'd be VERY VERY VERY surprised if they drop him below Drohan right now. He's probably #7 on the next rankings.

 

I've been following soxprospects for a long time, I'm basing my opinions off of how I see them evaluate, rank, and move players. They're not and never have been quick to move guys based on SSS. Yorke had an entire lost season and they barely dropped him in their rankings. It took an ENTIRE lost season to drop him just 3 spots, and I'd say he only really dropped on two of those guys....Bleis just popped. THey really like Perales, they love his stuff, and they know he's a young guy who has a lot of development and I know they're not looking at the box score right now.

[mvp 78]

Casas will graduate in the next rankings.

 

I think he graduates in Mid-May, are the next rankings in June? I meant to qualify Casas with "pending graduation status."

[mvp 78]

I think he graduates in Mid-May, are the next rankings in June? I meant to qualify Casas with "pending graduation status."

 

Will graduate from prospect status in our next rankings update (early May)

[Hugh2]

I think he graduates in Mid-May, are the next rankings in June? I meant to qualify Casas with "pending graduation status."

 

They usually update 1st of every month, but they’ve been late by a day or two before.

 

Casas will graduate with the next update.

[mvp 78]

Just delete Casas and put Alcantara 20th then.

[moonslav59]

You're talking about a 20-year-old kid in A ball who has never pitched more than 35 innings in a season. He's not being ranked because of his stats right now, I highly doubt anyone considers this a "major concern" Moon I think you're letting your personal bias on scouting box scores on players cloud your judgment here. I don't think the ceiling or projection has changed one thread on Perales. It's going to take a lot more than one month of results to move them. He was not ranked because of his stats, he is ranked where he is because of his raw stuff is, it's very natural to have raw stuff, a high ceiling but very poor results because you're very young and just learning a routine.

 

I'd be VERY VERY VERY surprised if they drop him below Drohan right now. He's probably #7 on the next rankings.

 

I've been following soxprospects for a long time, I'm basing my opinions off of how I see them evaluate, rank, and move players. They're not and never have been quick to move guys based on SSS. Yorke had an entire lost season and they barely dropped him in their rankings. It took an ENTIRE lost season to drop him just 3 spots, and I'd say he only really dropped on two of those guys....Bleis just popped. THey really like Perales, they love his stuff, and they know he's a young guy who has a lot of development and I know they're not looking at the box score right now.

 

I get the 20 year old thing, and I'm not saying I think Drohan will pass him- only that it is possible.

 

They jumped Perales by a lot- based on 35 IP in 2022 and what they felt about him back in 2019.

They jumped Drohan by a lot, too, in the last rankings, and he is pitching out of this world. Yes, he's much older, and a lot can happen between now and July.

 

[Hugh2]

I get the 20 year old thing, and I'm not saying I think Drohan will pass him- only that it is possible.

 

They jumped Perales by a lot- based on 35 IP in 2022 and what they felt about him back in 2019.

They jumped Drohan by a lot, too, in the last rankings, and he is pitching out of this world. Yes, he's much older, and a lot can happen between now and July.

 

 

This is the thing, that's NOT why they're ranking him. They talk to scouts, and player development personnel, and the money soxprospects raises goes towards sending their scouts out and seeing these guys. They're looking at mechanics, arm slots, velocity, seeing what they're working on or not working on, who they're playing. There are SO many variables that go into account. Perales jump had everything to do with his raw stuff, what the scouts see in him, and very little to do with his stats. The older he gets and the more developed he becomes the more that stuff matters in the end. But right now there's so much stuff behind the scenes that we don't even see.

 

They talk about this stuff often on their podcasts, and I'm basing this on their philosophy not my own. I happen to agree with it.

 

July? IDK, maybe, that's a little bit more realistic but I still think no. But they jumped Drohan by a LOT because they thought he could do what he is already doing. That's what you would expect from a 24 year old in AA, it's not like he's doing additional things. I don't think they even care what the box score is on Perales right now.

 

Lots of good information in their podcasts.

[mvp 78]

I get the 20 year old thing, and I'm not saying I think Drohan will pass him- only that it is possible.

 

They jumped Perales by a lot- based on 35 IP in 2022 and what they felt about him back in 2019.

They jumped Drohan by a lot, too, in the last rankings, and he is pitching out of this world. Yes, he's much older, and a lot can happen between now and July.

 

 

I think Drohan COULD pass Perales this season. His stuff has ticked up and he's having great results at AA which is considered a fairly high developmental level. I don't see another HUGE jump for Drohan like we saw previously, but minor bumps here and there. The big jump was due to the added velo and new pitch mix which has played up and showed they were right in their evaluations. Drohan is most likely in AA into June, maybe later July if they are managing the WOO rotation.

[moonslav59]

This is the thing, that's NOT why they're ranking him. They talk to scouts, and player development personnel, and the money soxprospects raises goes towards sending their scouts out and seeing these guys. They're looking at mechanics, arm slots, velocity, seeing what they're working on or not working on, who they're playing. There are SO many variables that go into account. Perales jump had everything to do with his raw stuff, what the scouts see in him, and very little to do with his stats. The older he gets and the more developed he becomes the more that stuff matters in the end. But right now there's so much stuff behind the scenes that we don't even see.

 

They talk about this stuff often on their podcasts, and I'm basing this on their philosophy not my own. I happen to agree with it.

 

July? IDK, maybe, that's a little bit more realistic but I still think no. But they jumped Drohan by a LOT because they thought he could do what he is already doing. That's what you would expect from a 24 year old in AA, it's not like he's doing additional things. I don't think they even care what the box score is on Perales right now.

 

Lots of good information in their podcasts.

 

Agreed, and I listen to every podcast.

 

To me, Perales needs to get his BB rate under control to maintain his ranking.

 

I remember Roniel Raudes being highly ranked due to scouting and not on the field performance, but he tumbled quickly. It can happen.

 

Owens, too.

[mvp 78]

This is the thing, that's NOT why they're ranking him. They talk to scouts, and player development personnel, and the money soxprospects raises goes towards sending their scouts out and seeing these guys. They're looking at mechanics, arm slots, velocity, seeing what they're working on or not working on, who they're playing. There are SO many variables that go into account. Perales jump had everything to do with his raw stuff, what the scouts see in him, and very little to do with his stats. The older he gets and the more developed he becomes the more that stuff matters in the end. But right now there's so much stuff behind the scenes that we don't even see.

 

They talk about this stuff often on their podcasts, and I'm basing this on their philosophy not my own. I happen to agree with it.

 

July? IDK, maybe, that's a little bit more realistic but I still think no. But they jumped Drohan by a LOT because they thought he could do what he is already doing. That's what you would expect from a 24 year old in AA, it's not like he's doing additional things. I don't think they even care what the box score is on Perales right now.

 

Lots of good information in their podcasts.

 

They say over and over DON'T SCOUT THE BOXSCORES. The results matter, but not as much as we think they do. The reports from the field are far more important. They physically see the players in person, watch them on MiLB.tv or talk to scouts (both from the Sox and other orgs).

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and I listen to every podcast.

 

To me, Perales needs to get his BB rate under control to maintain his ranking.

 

I remember Roniel Raudes being highly ranked due to scouting and not on the field performance, but he tumbled quickly. It can happen.

 

Owens, too.

 

They said in the game update that his command has been poor. I don't think that's a reason to take him out of the top 10. Mata is still ranked 5th and his command wasn't great last season.