The pursuit of Aaron Judge

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Judge is definitely going to get over 300 million. If the Yankees don't give it to him, some other team will.

 

It’s kind of difficult to imagine Aaron Judge wearing the uniform of a team other than the Yankees, but that could be the reality as soon as next year.

 

Judge and New York failed to work out a contract extension this past offseason, meaning the 30-year-old slugger is in line to become an unrestricted free agent once the 2022 campaign concludes. While Jeff Passan believes Judge won’t relocate ahead of the 2023 season, the ESPN MLB insider has his eye on a team that could pose a threat to the Yankees in the effort to sign the three-time All-Star.

 

“While I do think ultimately he winds up in pinstripes next year, do not count out the San Francisco Giants,” Passan said Sunday on “Baseball Tonight.” “This is a team that has only $89 million or so committed to next year’s payroll. The only player under contract for 2024 is Anthony DeSclafani right now. The Giants have money, they have money to spend and they have a big need for a power-hitting bat in the middle of the lineup. Aaron Judge is from California. Makes all the sense in the world, if not for that team in the Bronx.”

 

There’s a chance we could see a bidding war for the ages once the winter rolls around. Passan’s ESPN colleague, Kiley McDaniel, believes Judge realistically could command a long-term deal worth $300 million if he has a career campaign this year.

https://nesn.com/2022/05/mlb-rumors-dont-count-out-this-team-signing-aaron-judge-in-free-agency/

[moonslav59]

Replace Bogey with Judge and all the nay-sayers will shut up.

 

(Probably not. There's Devers to sign, too, and there's always Sale to bitch about.)

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would rather give 300 million to Judge than Bogaerts. In the post-shift baseball world, I don't see Bogaerts as a great defensive option at SS. The Red Sox could move Story to SS, let Bogaerts leave, and bid on Judge.

 

But that's assuming the Red Sox are willing to shell out 300 million for Devers too. Would the Red Sox be willing to carry two 300 million dollar players? I don't know, but if the Red Sox plan to do that, I would rather go with Devers & Judge than Devers & Bogaerts. At the very least, the Red Sox have to make a phone call to Judge's representatives. The Red Sox have crap in RF now, and they don't have a RF in the upper levels of the farm system either.

 

2023:

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Arroyo, Hamilton, Downs

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Verdugo

CF: Duran

RF: Judge

DH: will Cordero finally develop?

Edited May 23, 2022 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

Judge is too old to get $300 mill IMHO. He probably will though.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Dave Winfield, another big guy, kept hitting until age 40. But Judge's defense in RF will probably begin to decline relatively soon and that matters for the Red Sox. But if Judge can maintain quality defense for another 4 seasons, that would give the Red Sox plenty of time to find a replacement and move Judge to DH.

 

What is the Red Sox long term plan for RF anyway? It almost feels like they don't have one.

[jacksonianmarch]

$300 mil is likely not realistic just due to age. Had he been Devers' age, yeah, $300 mil would be the starting point.

 

My bet is he gets a 7 yr $245 mil contract, full no-trade, opt out after year 3 that can be mitigated with an 8th year at same AAV

[moonslav59]

I would rather give 300 million to Judge than Bogaerts. In the post-shift baseball world, I don't see Bogaerts as a great defensive option at SS. The Red Sox could move Story to SS, let Bogaerts leave, and bid on Judge.

 

But that's assuming the Red Sox are willing to shell out 300 million for Devers too. Would the Red Sox be willing to carry two 300 million dollar players? I don't know, but if the Red Sox plan to do that, I would rather go with Devers & Judge than Devers & Bogaerts. At the very least, the Red Sox have to make a phone call to Judge's representatives. The Red Sox have crap in RF now, and they don't have a RF in the upper levels of the farm system either.

 

2023:

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Arroyo, Hamilton, Downs

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Verdugo

CF: Duran

RF: Judge

DH: will Cordero finally develop?

 

No doubt, Judge is worth more than Bogey, even if we didn't have Story, already.

 

Maybe Devers takes $27.5M x 10.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Judge is just too large to age Mookily. Big-bodied athletes have short shelf lives. Andre the Giant only lived to age 46.

[jacksonianmarch]

Judge is just too large to age Mookily. Big-bodied athletes have short shelf lives. Andre the Giant only lived to age 46.

 

Not really a comparison for baseball. Randy Johnson pitched into his 40s and pretty effectively. But there just haven't been any 6'7" 282lb position players in the shape Judge is in. There have been some behemoth fat guys, but not athletic monsters

[Bellhorn04]

Not really a comparison for baseball. Randy Johnson pitched into his 40s and pretty effectively. But there just haven't been any 6'7" 282lb position players in the shape Judge is in. There have been some behemoth fat guys, but not athletic monsters

 

Frank Howard didn't really fall in either category. He just had a huge frame.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

$300 mil is likely not realistic just due to age. Had he been Devers' age, yeah, $300 mil would be the starting point.

 

My bet is he gets a 7 yr $245 mil contract, full no-trade, opt out after year 3 that can be mitigated with an 8th year at same AAV

 

You only need one team to fall in love with Judge and decide they want him as the face of their franchise and the price can go over 300 million, especially if Judge continues to rake this year at an MVP level. And since the NL has the DH now, that increases Judge's marketability in terms of a long term contract--NL teams like the Giants can move him to DH in his late 30s.

 

If a team like the Giants make him a 300 million dollar offer, it'll be really interesting to see how the Yankees respond to that. Will they let him leave or do they increase their offer to keep him? I think Steinbrenner gets involved and resigns Judge but it will cost the Yankees a fortune.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Judge is just too large to age Mookily. Big-bodied athletes have short shelf lives. Andre the Giant only lived to age 46.

 

Dave Winfield was 6'6, more lanky than Judge but athletes today tend to be more muscle-bound. Winfield was hitting 26 HR at age 40 and 21 HR at age 41. I think Winfield is our best comparison and Winfield had an .867 OPS at age 40. Open up the check book for Judge.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Interesting: Bogaerts and Judge were both born in 1992. Judge is roughly 6 months older than Bogaerts. Judge is going to get a bigger contract than Bogaerts, right?

 

And if Bogaerts is going to hold out for Judge money, the Red Sox might as well pursue Judge instead.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

We can now safely assume that Judge is going to get over 300 million. The only question for Judge is whether the contract is closer to 300 or 400 million, but it will be over 300 million.

[jacksonianmarch]

Highly unlikely he sees $300 mil. It’s entirely related to his age. People aren’t paying players into their 40s anymore. But the AAV has gone higher for sure. I can see a 7-$38 or 8-$35 as the cap now

[notin]

Highly unlikely he sees $300 mil. It’s entirely related to his age. People aren’t paying players into their 40s anymore. But the AAV has gone higher for sure. I can see a 7-$38 or 8-$35 as the cap now

 

I was saying this just the other day to Max Scherzer…

[Bellhorn04]

I was saying this just the other day to Max Scherzer…

 

Max's contract is LNS, not LNL.

[jacksonianmarch]

I was saying this just the other day to Max Scherzer…

 

Short term deal. You don’t give a 31 yr old a 10 years deal

[notin]

Max's contract is LNS, not LNL.

 

But it gets to the dreaded 40, and at one of, if not the highest AAVs of all time…

[notin]

Short term deal. You don’t give a 31 yr old a 10 years deal

 

So… much better to just bypass those productive years in the early 30s and go directly to age 38?

 

Here’s the thing. I’m probably more opposed to long term deals than you, and certainly more opposed than most GMs. But even then, most would agree with you about not giving Judge 8-10 years.

 

But it only takes one crazy GM to make the offer…

[jacksonianmarch]

So… much better to just bypass those productive years in the early 30s and go directly to age 38?

 

Here’s the thing. I’m probably more opposed to long term deals than you, and certainly more opposed than most GMs. But even then, most would agree with you about not giving Judge 8-10 years.

 

But it only takes one crazy GM to make the offer…

 

My prediction is Judge will get an 8 year $35 mil AAV deal as long as he keeps it up this season

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Some GM will see that Dave Winfield had a .867 OPS at age 40 and that Judge can do the same. There are now 30 teams that can count on having the DH for Judge's "golden years." Is it crazy to give Judge 300 million for 9 or 10 years if he leads you to a couple of championships? It could be a sound investment.

 

It's funny to hear Yankees fans try to convince themselves that Judge isn't going to cost 300 m. The Red Sox have to be all over Judge in the off-season--they shouldn't pursue Bogaerts until the Judge pursuit is over. Judge is a perfect fit for the Red Sox. I'm not sure if the Red Sox would be willing to shell out the money, probably not, but he would solve many of their problems going forward.

[moonslav59]

Some GM will see that Dave Winfield had a .867 OPS at age 40 and that Judge can do the same. There are now 30 teams that can count on having the DH for Judge's "golden years." Is it crazy to give Judge 300 million for 9 or 10 years if he leads you to a couple of championships? It could be a sound investment.

 

It's funny to hear Yankees fans try to convince themselves that Judge isn't going to cost 300 m. The Red Sox have to be all over Judge in the off-season--they shouldn't pursue Bogaerts until the Judge pursuit is over. Judge is a perfect fit for the Red Sox. I'm not sure if the Red Sox would be willing to shell out the money, probably not, but he would solve many of their problems going forward.

 

Even if we didn't have Story to take over SS, next year, I'd have Judge ahead of Bogey on the must try to sign first list.

 

We need to upgrade the OF, and with Kike going to free agency, and JBJ & Verdugo largely still question marks, Judge should be the #1 priority.

 

I do find it hard to imagine us not signing Betts, then going LNL on Judge.

[notin]

Even if we didn't have Story to take over SS, next year, I'd have Judge ahead of Bogey on the must try to sign first list.

 

We need to upgrade the OF, and with Kike going to free agency, and JBJ & Verdugo largely still question marks, Judge should be the #1 priority.

 

I do find it hard to imagine us not signing Betts, then going LNL on Judge.

 

Verdugo shouldn’t be a big question mark. With his barrel rates etc that mvp keeps posting, he is clearly making good contact. And he’ll benefit next year from the banning of the shift…,

[moonslav59]

Verdugo shouldn’t be a big question mark. With his barrel rates etc that mvp keeps posting, he is clearly making good contact. And he’ll benefit next year from the banning of the shift…,

 

Well, the other problem is Duran and Verdugo are best used in LF. Forcing one to CF, or counting on JBJ again, could be a mistake.

[notin]

Well, the other problem is Duran and Verdugo are best used in LF. Forcing one to CF, or counting on JBJ again, could be a mistake.

 

What’s wrong with counting on JBJ again?

 

Do people still think this guy is a let down? How many people thought in early June, Bradley would have a higher OPS than Kike and Verdugo?

 

Bradley right now is the Sox best outfielder…

[Bellhorn04]

What’s wrong with counting on JBJ again?

 

Do people still think this guy is a let down? How many people thought in early June, Bradley would have a higher OPS than Kike?

 

I know, talk about a whipping boy.

[notin]

I know, talk about a whipping boy.

 

And same deal for Bradley - No Shift 2023!

[moonslav59]

What’s wrong with counting on JBJ again?

 

Do people still think this guy is a let down? How many people thought in early June, Bradley would have a higher OPS than Kike and Verdugo?

 

Bradley right now is the Sox best outfielder…

 

It's not like I hate JBJ or Verdugo, but I'm not counting on them as being a big enough plus to make a significant difference. The might. They could, but personally, I'm not counting on them. I'm fine with going into next year with Duran and Verdugo in LF and LF only, and I'd b e fine with JBJ in C F or RF, if the 3rd OF was a big plus.

 

I guess I'm just tired of mediocre OF6's from left to right, every year. When you are getting weak offense from 1B, the OF needs to take up some slack.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess I'm just tired of mediocre OF6's from left to right, every year. When you are getting weak offense from 1B, the OF needs to take up some slack.

 

Every year? What?