2022 Prospects

[Larry Cook]

Lugo with a second tater tonight, now at 8 on the season.

 

Groshans with his 4th tater of the season!

[Larry Cook]

Murphy served up two meatballs tonight, but otherwise had a decent night.

[moonslav59]

WOR with a 6 hit shutout- no walks and 11 Ks:

5 IP 3H 0 ER 0BB 6 K Seabold

2 IP 1H 0ER 0BB 1 K Bracho

1 IP 2H 0ER 0BB 3K Politi

1 IP 0H 0ER 0BB 1K Kelly

 

JDavis with another good game 3-4, 2HR, 3B

Duran 1-3 w HR and BB

 

POR lost 2-0

6 IP 5H 2ER 1BB 3K Murphy

 

GRE lost 10-6

Lugo 2-5, 2 HR

Binelas 2-4, 2Bs

Northcut 0-2, 2BB

 

SAL won 12-3

Gonzalez 5IP 3H 2ER 3BB 5K

Kavadas 3-3, 8th HR, 2B, 2BB

Mayer 0-2, 3BB

Jordan 3-5, HR

Paulino 1-3, HR, 3 Runs, 3BB

Bonaci 2-4, BB

 

 

[mvp 78]

If they had a Top 100 list for defense, I think he would be on it!

 

Of course, I think he should be on the regular top 100 list now. I also think he is close to passing yorke to be number 3 in Red Sox top 30 list. (Mayer and cassas are still 1 and 2)

 

I'm not so sure about that. Just looking at his K/BB shows he has a long way to go.

[moonslav59]

I'm not so sure about that. Just looking at his K/BB shows he has a long way to go.

 

I'm not sure K's are as a big of an issue as days gone by. Yes, a 55:12 K:BB ratio is not great, but his K rate is below 24%, I believe. That's not good either, but not as horrible as many players, these days.

 

I think he superior defense overshadows the high K:BB ratio, and the kid is hitting .327 with 35 XBHs in 226 ABs.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure K's are as a big of an issue as days gone by. Yes, a 55:12 K:BB ratio is not great, but his K rate is below 24%, I believe. That's not good either, but not as horrible as many players, these days.

 

I think he superior defense overshadows the high K:BB ratio, and the kid is hitting .327 with 35 XBHs in 226 ABs.

 

It's the 25% k rate added with a 5% bb rate in hitters league in A ball that is concerning. He doesn't have a great approach right now. I'm just saying that he's not at Yorke's level, not that he doesn't deserve to be a top 100 prospect.

[moonslav59]

I'm not expert on prospects and certainly not on when prospects are ready to be promoted, but I'm eager to see how well some of our prospects can do at the next level.

 

We've already seen these promotions:

 

WOR>BOS

Duran, Refsnyder (not really a prospect), Crawford, JDavis, Wong & Winckowski (Nobody ha stuck, longterm)

 

POR>WOR

Bello

Walter

KHart

German

Politi

Sogard

Gillies

 

GRE>POR

Rafaela

Howlett

Espin

 

SAL>GRE

Mata (rehab)

J Webb

DiValerio

B Lucas (FCL>GRE)

L Guerrero (FCL>SAL

 

I'd like to see...

 

to BOS

German

Fitzy

Maybe Seabold, Bello, Politi, Kelly, Ort, Downs, Wong/RHern

 

to Woo

Murphy

Groome

J Wallace

Maybe Rafaela, Koss, TReed, Cottam, Castellanos

 

to POR

Mata (rehab- maybe to Woo)

Binelas

Northcut

Lugo

Jimenez

Drohan

McDonough

 

to GRE

Mayer

Hickey

Kavadas

W Gonzalez

A Bastardo

Encarnacion

Jordan

Sikes

Bonaci

Paulino

 

to SAL

(I have no idea.)

[moonslav59]

It's the 25% k rate added with a 5% bb rate in hitters league in A ball that is concerning. He doesn't have a great approach right now. I'm just saying that he's not at Yorke's level, not that he doesn't deserve to be a top 100 prospect.

 

I agree on him not passing Yorke, despite his .675 OPS, so far in 2022.

 

I might move Rafaela to 4th or 5th, though. Maybe something like this:

 

1. Mayer (more out of Casas not really being all that impressive)

 

2. Casas

 

3. Yorke

 

4. Bello

 

5. Rafaela

 

6. Bleis

 

7. Walter

 

8. Mata

 

9. Duran

 

10. Murphy

 

11. German

 

12. Gonzalez

 

13. Winckowski

 

14. Seabold

 

15. Binelas

 

16. Lugo

 

17. Downs

 

18. Groome

 

19. Hickey

 

20. Kavadas

 

21. Koss

 

22. Jordan

 

23. Fitzy

 

24. Jimenez

 

25. Paulino, Crawford, McDonough, Bonaci, Wong

 

[mvp 78]

to SAL

(I have no idea.)

 

I'll take a shot at the FCL > SAL pipeline.

 

Pitchers:

Jedixson Paez - SP (young and needs lots of refinement, stuff is not there yet)

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz SP (2021 4th rounder, tall and lean with velo, but his delivery is all over the place right now because he's he's built like a deer)

Nate Tellier - RP (pitched in SAL last season)

Merfy Andres - RP (throws obscenely hard, but doesn't know where it's going)

 

Hitters:

Miguel Bleis - CF (soon to be top 100 prospect)

Juan Chacon - RF (received highest 19-20 bonus)

Daniel McElveny - UTIL (21 draft pick)

BJ Vela - 2B (21 draft pick)

 

Note: While, Enderso Lira is a good prospect, as C will move level to level slowly.

Edited June 15, 2022 by mvp 78

[Larry Cook]

It's the 25% k rate added with a 5% bb rate in hitters league in A ball that is concerning. He doesn't have a great approach right now. I'm just saying that he's not at Yorke's level, not that he doesn't deserve to be a top 100 prospect.

 

If there is one level of minor league baseball that separates the men from the boys, it is double a. By September, we will know a lot more about Rafaela.

 

Ps: anybody think that maybe Hang’em Chaim promoted the kid early to use rafeala as a trade chip that another team might over value?

[moonslav59]

If there is one level of minor league baseball that separates the men from the boys, it is double a. By September, we will know a lot more about Rafaela.

 

Ps: anybody think that maybe Hang’em Chaim promoted the kid early to use rafeala as a trade chip that another team might over value?

 

I doubt that is ever a reason for a promotion, since it's unknown the player will do better at the higher level.

 

If the value increases with the promotion, it would be just as helpful to keep the player than to trade him, IMO.

 

I think this kid is the real deal, and I think Bloom is looking at getting serious input from the farm over the next few years. That's part of the strategy of improving the long term outlook while building up the 40 man roster, at the same time. It's a delicate balance, but so far, Bloom has traded away very few prospects, and none that had super high value. The highest ranked prospect traded was Aldo Ramirez (correct me, if I'm wrong), and he was ranked 9th by soxprospects.com, last spring.

 

He's added prospects Whitlock, German, Winckowski, Seabold, Binelas, Hamilton, Koss, Downs, Wong, R Hernandez and others via trades. Clearly, this has been a high priority. The results on many of these guys are yet to be seen. Surely, some will fail, but there is some good talent in this group, and some will likely do well. Whitlock has already shown a plus.

 

Bloom has also benefited from some DD prospects that eventually rose up to ML readiness and have contributed, namely Houck and Dalbec, but there are more that are nearing ML readiness, soon- like Duran, Casas, Bello, Mata, Murphy and Rafaela, among others.

 

I'm liking what I see on the farm, but we are still not a top 7-10 system. At best, we might be viewed as top 10-14.

[mvp 78]

If there is one level of minor league baseball that separates the men from the boys, it is double a. By September, we will know a lot more about Rafaela.

 

Ps: anybody think that maybe Hang’em Chaim promoted the kid early to use rafeala as a trade chip that another team might over value?

 

No, he just needs to see if he's worth a 40 man spot for 2023.

[Larry Cook]

Bello with 5 innings pitched. 1 run given up, 3 hits (one of the hits was a meatball that he served up) 1 walk and 8 strike outs!

[Larry Cook]

In Portland, Rafeala with his 3rd Portland tater and 12th overall.

 

Castellaneous with his 8th tater of the season.

 

Groome with 5 innings pitched. Two hits, two walks and zero runs given up. 3 strike outs.

[Larry Cook]

Rafeala with his 2nd tater of the night, 4th at Portland and 13th on the season.

[Larry Cook]

Lugo with his 9th tater of he season.

[Larry Cook]

Groome with 7 innings pitched. Two hits, four walks, zero runs and 5 strike outs! Pretty impressive!

[mvp 78]

Groome's numbers would look much better if he didn't have the second outing of the year where he only go through a third of an inning and then the 8 earned run performance at the end of May. While he's looked pretty good in June 1.59 ERA, 17 IP and 1.24 WHIP, his k/bb of 13/12 is not really getting it done. He's not striking out enough guys anymore and he's just walking way too many. His FIP this year is 5.08.

[mvp 78]

Granberg promoted, at least temporarily, to AAA.

 

Portland's best hitter this season (.304/.427/.467) while that lineup has really struggled, and he has hit .292/.366/.469 in 109 games across 2021-22.

[moonslav59]

Granberg promoted, at least temporarily, to AAA.

 

Portland's best hitter this season (.304/.427/.467) while that lineup has really struggled, and he has hit .292/.366/.469 in 109 games across 2021-22.

 

Curious why you mentioned, "at least temporarily."

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox top prospect Triston Casas (ankle) hasn't played since May 17. He's in Fort Myers rehabbing.

"He's moving. I think he started running the last week," Cora said.

Cora said he'd find out more info and provide it tomorrow.

[mvp 78]

Curious why you mentioned, "at least temporarily."

 

Is he only up because Refsnyder and Duran are with Boston? Will he get sent back down if they are sent back down to WOO? That does happen.

[mvp 78]

For example:

 

@brendan_camp

Transaction:

 

SS Ricardo Cubillan assigned to Portland Sea Dogs from Greenville Drive.

 

OF Tyler Esplin assigned to Greenville Drive from Portland Sea Dogs.

[moonslav59]

Mata made a nice stride in his rehab, despite walking 3 in 4 IP.

1 Hit

0 ER

8 Ks

Northcut with a 3-run dinger (21st)

 

[Larry Cook]

Northcut with his 21st tater of the season for Greenville.

 

Mieses with his 6th tater and downs with his 11th tater for Worcester.

 

Paulino with his 5th tater and Kavadas with his 9th tater on the season. Kavadas also with two more walks tonight!

[mvp 78]

Mata made a nice stride in his rehab, despite walking 3 in 4 IP.

1 Hit

0 ER

8 Ks

Northcut with a 3-run dinger (21st)

 

 

Mata's k numbers are out of control right now. I wonder if they are going to just keep marching him up through WOO. It's crazy that he missed 2020 and 2021, is pitching like this and is still only 23.

[Larry Cook]

Mata's k numbers are out of control right now. I wonder if they are going to just keep marching him up through WOO. It's crazy that he missed 2020 and 2021, is pitching like this and is still only 23.

 

Mata, winkleman and Bello are just about the only pitchers in our minor league system with electric stuff.

 

Some of the others might have one “plus” pitch, but nothing with the wow factor.

[Larry Cook]

Kavadas with his 10th tater on the season for Salem.

 

Dalton with his 4th tater of the season for Portland.

 

Ramos with his 5th tater of the season for Worcester.

[moonslav59]

Mata, winkleman and Bello are just about the only pitchers in our minor league system with electric stuff.

 

Some of the others might have one “plus” pitch, but nothing with the wow factor.

 

True, but we have a lot of those lesser pitchers, and we might only need 1-2 to stick as a capable 5th starter or pen arm, where one can get by a little easier on one "plus pitch."

[moonslav59]

OPS Leaders on the Farm:

.976 Rafaela (13 HRs and 38 XBHs in 238 ABs)

.974 Kavadas (10 & 26 in 174)

.952 Refsnyder (6 & 20 in 147)

.910 Duran (6 & 23 in 177)

.899 Lugo (9 & 31 in 218)

.892 Mayer (4 & 19 in 122)

.864 Northcut (21 & 28 in 210)

.864 Granberg (1 & 15 in 140)

.856 Hickey (4 & 14 in 121)

.834 Sikes (3 & 19 in 133)

.818 Binelas (12 & 20 in 194)

.817 Paulino (5 & 30 in 226)

.817 Sanchez (7 & 18 in 194)

.816 Casas (6 & 15 in 129)

.810 Fitzy (11 & 24 in 222)

.765 Jordan (4 & 23 in 217

.762 Castellanos (8 & 24 in 219)

.749 McDonough (7 & 20 in 225)

.748 Koss (6 & 16 in 205)

 

Some early numbers from the DSL & FCL (small samples of 15+ ABs)

1.256 Sierra

1.250 Garcia

1.218 Liriano

1.156 Noria

1.128 Mendez

1.060 Asencio

1.050 James

1.045 Rojas

1.014 Mieses w WOR (went on IL)