A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[OH FOY]

We're talking farm system and prospect recognition not FA signings and coaching.

 

There's no doubt we used to be one of the best of maybe even "the best," but we have not been even close to the best for 4+ years in "talent recognition" in terms of drafting and IFA signings.

 

Agree with this 100%.

[Elktonnick]

Yes, it's my opinion, but I don't preface my opinion with "The facts are clear" then state an opinion. Like when I said Cora was the best Sox manager ever, I didn't say "the facts are clear Cora is the best."

 

Bold is no shouting- ALL CAPS ARE.

 

I have eye sight problems, and it helps me see better and locate my posts and responses to my posts easier. I don't mean to offend anyone.

 

Thank you for explaining. I am sorry I didn't mind to offend you. We can agree to disagree on the scouting. I said we will be back in the top ten in farm teams in two years. You I believe think otherwise. Hopefully we will both be around to see who is correct. That will be the only resolution to our disagreement.

[moonslav59]

Thank you for explaining. I am sorry I didn't mind to offend you. We can agree to disagree on the scouting. I said we will be back in the top ten in farm teams in two years. You I believe think otherwise. Hopefully we will both be around to see who is correct. That will be the only resolution to our disagreement.

 

I'd be thrilled to be wrong on this and will call you a genius, if we are even top 12 next fall/winter. I'd be thrilled to be 15th-18th.

 

Look, it's possible our scouting is just as good as way back, and it's just the hardening system that has changed. I've been making the point about how hard it is for winning AND high spending teams to build or keep up a top farm system, so maybe it's harder than even I thought. Seeing the Dodgers, Braves, Rays and others draft low and still build strong farms makes me think we've slipped.

 

It's not just about all the prospects DD traded- most of them would be graduated by now, so our farm would not be way better right now, had we not traded so many. It's who we have drafted and signed as IFAs that has kept the farm down.

 

The bump to #22 is very encouraging, but when you're at #30, there's only one way to go. An 8 slot jump is pretty significant. I'm not trying to downplay it. I'd like to see where other top ranking services place us this winter.

 

Guys like Chavis, DHern, Taylor and Walden have been helpful, but they are not Devers, Beni, ERod, Bogey, Betts, Moncada and others traded for top players. What bothers me is that, IMO, our best prospects are pretty far away.

 

I'm not that high on Dalbec, Chatham, Houck and Duran- players that can help next year or 2021.

 

I like these guys more (as a group):

 

Age Prospect

 

19 Casas

20 Mata

22 Ward (may be ready by 2021)

21 Groome (had setback)

19 Jimenez

22 Song (at Lowell this year)

18 Lugo

19 Decker

18 A Flores

Edited October 3, 2019 by moonslav59

[Elktonnick]

I'd be thrilled to be wrong on this and will call you a genius, if we are even top 12 next fall/winter. I'd be thrilled to be 15th-18th.

 

Look, it's possible our scouting is just as good as way back, and it's just the hardening system that has changed. I've been making the point about how hard it is for winning AND high spending teams to build or keep up a top farm system, so maybe it's harder than even I thought. Seeing the Dodgers, Braves, Rays and others draft low and still build strong farms makes me think we've slipped.

 

It's not just about all the prospects DD traded- most of them would be graduated by now, so our farm would not be way better right now, had we not traded so many. It's who we have drafted and signed as IFAs that has kept the farm down.

 

The bump to #22 is very encouraging, but when you're at #30, there's only one way to go. An 8 slot jump is pretty significant. I'm not trying to downplay it. I'd like to see where other top ranking services place us this winter.

 

Guys like Chavis, DHern, Taylor and Walden have been helpful, but they are not Devers, Beni, ERod, Bogey, Betts, Moncada and others traded for top players. What bothers me is that, IMO, our best prospects are pretty far away.

 

I'm not that high on Dalbec, Chatham, Houck and Duran- players that can help next year or 2021.

 

I like these guys more (as a group):

 

Age Prospect

 

19 Casas

20 Mata

22 Ward (may be ready by 2021)

21 Groome (had setback)

19 Jimenez

22 Song (at Lowell this year)

18 Lugo

19 Decker

18 A Flores

 

I firmly believe that if the Sox were to trade Betts they would only do so once they determine how well they are doing in 2020. If Boston starts strong out the gate next year and they look like they are solid playoff contenders then they will likely hold on to Betts to make their playoff run. Red Sox fans would quickly turn on Henry and the club if they perceive Boston had capitulated on a playoff run prematurely. Remember the Red Sox are not only competing against the Yankees et al but also against the Patriots, Bruins and Celtics for Boston's sport fans entertainment dollars. Sox fans living outside of New England and Massachusetts need to keep that in mind.

 

That being the case I think most Red Sox fans would accept trading Betts if the return would re position the club to be solid contenders in 21 and beyond. For this reason I think the Red Sox are most likely to move Betts closer to the trade deadline than earlier to maximize their return especially if their goal is restocking the farm with solid top notch prospects.

[moonslav59]

I firmly believe that if the Sox were to trade Betts they would only do so once they determine how well they are doing in 2020. If Boston starts strong out the gate next year and they look like they are solid playoff contenders then they will likely hold on to Betts to make their playoff run. Red Sox fans would quickly turn on Henry and the club if they perceive Boston had capitulated on a playoff run prematurely. Remember the Red Sox are not only competing against the Yankees et al but also against the Patriots, Bruins and Celtics for Boston's sport fans entertainment dollars. Sox fans living outside of New England and Massachusetts need to keep that in mind.

 

That being the case I think most Red Sox fans would accept trading Betts if the return would re position the club to be solid contenders in 21 and beyond. For this reason I think the Red Sox are most likely to move Betts closer to the trade deadline than earlier to maximize their return especially if their goal is restocking the farm with solid top notch prospects.

 

I think we trade JBJ and JD this winter for prospects. (That may get us near your projected 2020 fall ranking projection.)

 

That will likely mean we won't be in the race in July, so my guess is Betts gets traded in July, hopefully with the idea that we make a strong push to sign him that winter.

 

That's my guess. (We may trade Barnes in July, too.)

[notin]

I firmly believe that if the Sox were to trade Betts they would only do so once they determine how well they are doing in 2020. If Boston starts strong out the gate next year and they look like they are solid playoff contenders then they will likely hold on to Betts to make their playoff run. Red Sox fans would quickly turn on Henry and the club if they perceive Boston had capitulated on a playoff run prematurely. Remember the Red Sox are not only competing against the Yankees et al but also against the Patriots, Bruins and Celtics for Boston's sport fans entertainment dollars. Sox fans living outside of New England and Massachusetts need to keep that in mind.

 

That being the case I think most Red Sox fans would accept trading Betts if the return would re position the club to be solid contenders in 21 and beyond. For this reason I think the Red Sox are most likely to move Betts closer to the trade deadline than earlier to maximize their return especially if their goal is restocking the farm with solid top notch prospects.

 

One year of Betts is already a fire sale price. Trading Betts at the deadline - when he loses any potential drat pick compensation - lessens his value more.

 

If the Sox are trying to reset the tax limit, it will be tough if they keep JD and Betts. Not impossible, but very difficult.

 

But I hope they do keep at least one of them...

[moonslav59]

One year of Betts is already a fire sale price. Trading Betts at the deadline - when he loses any potential drat pick compensation - lessens his value more.

 

If the Sox are trying to reset the tax limit, it will be tough if they keep JD and Betts. Not impossible, but very difficult.

 

But I hope they do keep at least one of them...

 

Trading Betts at the deadline does him a huge favor. Maybe he'll take that into account when we are bidding for his services nexxt winter.

[notin]

Trading Betts at the deadline does him a huge favor. Maybe he'll take that into account when we are bidding for his services nexxt winter.

 

I don't think it does him a favor. The topflight free agents like Harper and Machado were not limited due to the draft pick loss. It's the middle tier Stephen Drew/Kendrys Morales types who are.

 

The limiting factor with Betts will be the price tag. Just like it was with JD Martinez (who also had no qualifying offer attached)...

[jacksonianmarch]

Trading Betts at the deadline does him a huge favor. Maybe he'll take that into account when we are bidding for his services nexxt winter.

 

Betts' QO is only useful to the sox if they get under the lux tax limit. The difference is 100 spots in the draft order.

 

Listen, I have sat back and read all the garbage about the sox being the best talent evaluators and have laughed my ass off. The sox have, going on a decade now, been abysmal at drafting and developing pitching. There is a reason they had to go outside of the org for all 5 of their SPs from your 2018 WS run. There was a time when Buchholz wasn't made of glass and Lester was roaming these parts. They are the last 2 to be brought in as amateurs and grown into big league arms. So to say the sox have been the best at recognizing talent for the last 16 yrs is an absolute lie. The Red Sox were able to shift the game in their favor when only the small market clubs gave a s*** about amateur talent. They were the rare large market club that actually gave a s*** about drafting and developing. Hence, they accumulated those Comp A draft picks. Heck, when the sox let Smellsbury and Damon go, they would get a 1st rounder AND a supp pick. Since spending limits didn't exist, they nabbed all the high signability guys (read top 10 talents who wanted tons of money) and they drafted them in the 20s-30s and signed them all. They rigged the game. Then they spent a ton of money on their big league rosters and voila, they had a good big league roster with a deep farm to draw from.

 

The rules changed, but even with the rule changes, the sox were very good at drafting and developing hitters. They no longer got the 1st round selections, but still got some supp picks for players departing. Then came their couple down seasons where they accumulated high picks and Ben guided the farm to a #2 ranking before DD came in and changed it all. The sox enjoyed gaming the system, then two last place finishes plus a robust IFA factory in the islands or in South America. DD came in, the islands were out, they went to Venezuela of all places and their drafting of good hitters fell off. Their pitchers they drafted continued to get hurt or suck and then boom, your good prospects at the top level are all dealt off. This leads to a talent void, especially now in the upper levels when you need them the most. The sox aren't the best at identifying talent. Everyone has their hits and misses, but they aren't even close to the best at identifying talent. They are also not the best at developing that talent, especially on the pitching side. They just can no longer game the system and with 3 ALE titles in their pocket, couldn't draft highly enough to get anyone of impact

[Elktonnick]

Trading Betts at the deadline does him a huge favor. Maybe he'll take that into account when we are bidding for his services nexxt winter.

 

What I see is the Chapman scenario with Betts. Trade him at the deadline and reap what ever dividend that accrues and then resign him in free agency. I don't believe the Sox will get to trade JD because I believe he opts out. I think JBJ is gone. Hembree is gone. Barnes I think they keep sorry to say.

[notin]

Betts' QO is only useful to the sox if they get under the lux tax limit. The difference is 100 spots in the draft order.

 

Listen, I have sat back and read all the garbage about the sox being the best talent evaluators and have laughed my ass off. The sox have, going on a decade now, been abysmal at drafting and developing pitching. There is a reason they had to go outside of the org for all 5 of their SPs from your 2018 WS run. There was a time when Buchholz wasn't made of glass and Lester was roaming these parts. They are the last 2 to be brought in as amateurs and grown into big league arms. So to say the sox have been the best at recognizing talent for the last 16 yrs is an absolute lie. The Red Sox were able to shift the game in their favor when only the small market clubs gave a s*** about amateur talent. They were the rare large market club that actually gave a s*** about drafting and developing. Hence, they accumulated those Comp A draft picks. Heck, when the sox let Smellsbury and Damon go, they would get a 1st rounder AND a supp pick. Since spending limits didn't exist, they nabbed all the high signability guys (read top 10 talents who wanted tons of money) and they drafted them in the 20s-30s and signed them all. They rigged the game. Then they spent a ton of money on their big league rosters and voila, they had a good big league roster with a deep farm to draw from.

 

The rules changed, but even with the rule changes, the sox were very good at drafting and developing hitters. They no longer got the 1st round selections, but still got some supp picks for players departing. Then came their couple down seasons where they accumulated high picks and Ben guided the farm to a #2 ranking before DD came in and changed it all. The sox enjoyed gaming the system, then two last place finishes plus a robust IFA factory in the islands or in South America. DD came in, the islands were out, they went to Venezuela of all places and their drafting of good hitters fell off. Their pitchers they drafted continued to get hurt or suck and then boom, your good prospects at the top level are all dealt off. This leads to a talent void, especially now in the upper levels when you need them the most. The sox aren't the best at identifying talent. Everyone has their hits and misses, but they aren't even close to the best at identifying talent. They are also not the best at developing that talent, especially on the pitching side. They just can no longer game the system and with 3 ALE titles in their pocket, couldn't draft highly enough to get anyone of impact

 

It also helps that the Sox media doesn't massively overhype any system 19yo with a fastball over 95mph and build up our hopes with a slew of Luis Cessa / Jonathan Loasigia / Joba Chamberlain types as MLB future aces. Exactly how many starting pitchers has the Yankee farm put in their rotation in the past ten years besides Severino and Ivan Nova? I guess you can count that one season from Jordan Montgomery. Maybe he can pitch again someday...

[notin]

What I see is the Chapman scenario with Betts. Trade him at the deadline and reap what ever dividend that accrues and then resign him in free agency. I don't believe the Sox will get to trade JD because I believe he opts out. I think JBJ is gone. Hembree is gone. Barnes I think they keep sorry to say.

 

The Chapman scenario did involve a lot of luck. It's not every year you have a team with a chance to break a 108 World Series drought at all costs. Torres was preseason #41 on BA.

 

Manny Machado was traded at the deadline, and while the Orioles did receive 3 prospects for him, only one was ever ranked and he never cracked the top 30 on anyone's list.

 

So trading at the deadline likely gets you a ranked prospect in the 35-45 range. And some other ancillary pieces. Is that enough?

Edited October 3, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

I don't think it does him a favor. The topflight free agents like Harper and Machado were not limited due to the draft pick loss. It's the middle tier Stephen Drew/Kendrys Morales types who are.

 

The limiting factor with Betts will be the price tag. Just like it was with JD Martinez (who also had no qualifying offer attached)...

 

It should help, some. That draft pick has value.

 

It sure hurt Keuchel and Kimbrel, who are a bit above "middle tier".

[notin]

It should help, some. That draft pick has value.

 

It sure hurt Keuchel and Kimbrel, who are a bit above "middle tier".

 

Also above 30. Betts will be 28.

[moonslav59]

Also above 30. Betts will be 28.

 

It won't stop anyone from making huge offers, but I bet teams subtract something for that lost pick.

[notin]

It won't stop anyone from making huge offers, but I bet teams subtract something for that lost pick.

 

All the more reason to offer him a QO. The Sox are the one team that wouldn’t have to worry about that. Your plan levels the playing field the wrong way...

[moonslav59]

All the more reason to offer him a QO. The Sox are the one team that wouldn’t have to worry about that. Your plan levels the playing field the wrong way...

 

If we are going to lose him, we should trade him this winter and get full value in return.

 

I was just saying that if we want to sign him after 2020, it might help to do him a favor by trading him during the season, so there is no QO related draft choice lost by signing him. Yes, it would help other teams not us, but Betts might be appreciative of us for doing it. I realize this idea is rather convoluted, and I'm not saying we should do this for that reason. I was basically just thinking out loud.

[moonslav59]

Some interesting facts:

 

Career SLG% (T 39th all time list .001 below Ken Griffey Jr.)

.537 JD Martinez

.537 Frank Robinson

 

8. Manny Ramirez .585

9. Trout .581

 

16. Bellinger .559

17. Musial .559

18. Judge .558

19. Mays .557

20. Mantle .557

 

25. Ortiz .552

26. ERod .550

 

29. Stanton .547

 

70. Betts .519

73. G Sanchez .518

 

OBP Career

1. Williams .482

2. Ruth .474

 

17. Votto .421

21. Trout .419

 

35. Manny .411

 

OPS Career

1.164 Ruth

1.116 Williams

[notin]

If we are going to lose him, we should trade him this winter and get full value in return.

 

I was just saying that if we want to sign him after 2020, it might help to do him a favor by trading him during the season, so there is no QO related draft choice lost by signing him. Yes, it would help other teams not us, but Betts might be appreciative of us for doing it. I realize this idea is rather convoluted, and I'm not saying we should do this for that reason. I was basically just thinking out loud.

 

I agree. Either trade him this winter or don't trade him at all. Take your draft pick and exclusive negotiation window and ability to go about the tax limits after a reset...

[jacksonianmarch]

It also helps that the Sox media doesn't massively overhype any system 19yo with a fastball over 95mph and build up our hopes with a slew of Luis Cessa / Jonathan Loasigia / Joba Chamberlain types as MLB future aces. Exactly how many starting pitchers has the Yankee farm put in their rotation in the past ten years besides Severino and Ivan Nova? I guess you can count that one season from Jordan Montgomery. Maybe he can pitch again someday...

 

This might have been the one time I didn't counter a comment with something the Yanks had done, but since you asked...

 

The Yankees developed an ace and a mid rotation starter on their current team. The mid rotation starter happens to have been on shelf due to TJS. How have the sox done again in the pitching development realm? The sox massively overhype their prospects too. EVERYONE overhypes their prospects. The one thing the Yanks have done that the sox refuse to do is to deal their prospects for other prospects or their good looking rookies for other young players. The sox fall in love with their prospects when their farm is good. The Yanks may hype them and deal off the ones who they dont see as being impact guys. We made out well with these moves. The Voit trade. The Tauchman trade. The Didi trade. The Hicks trade. We have been moving pre-arb players for arb or earlier players for years and have used it as a way to restock the farm or build depth. We have also used our depth to deal off guys who wouldn't make our 40 man for long term prospects. That is how we got Juan Then (the guy we used to get EE) and Luis Gil (for Jake Cave).

[S5Dewey]

This might have been the one time I didn't counter a comment with something the Yanks had done, but since you asked...

 

And this might have been the most recent time when I didn't look at who the author of this post is, read the first sentence, realize that it's nothing more than another "poor winner" Yankees's post and skip over it... but it wasn't.

[moonslav59]

This might have been the one time I didn't counter a comment with something the Yanks had done, but since you asked...

 

The Yankees developed an ace and a mid rotation starter on their current team. The mid rotation starter happens to have been on shelf due to TJS. How have the sox done again in the pitching development realm? The sox massively overhype their prospects too. EVERYONE overhypes their prospects. The one thing the Yanks have done that the sox refuse to do is to deal their prospects for other prospects or their good looking rookies for other young players. The sox fall in love with their prospects when their farm is good. The Yanks may hype them and deal off the ones who they dont see as being impact guys. We made out well with these moves. The Voit trade. The Tauchman trade. The Didi trade. The Hicks trade. We have been moving pre-arb players for arb or earlier players for years and have used it as a way to restock the farm or build depth. We have also used our depth to deal off guys who wouldn't make our 40 man for long term prospects. That is how we got Juan Then (the guy we used to get EE) and Luis Gil (for Jake Cave).

 

Some way off generalizations here.

[Slasher9]

This might have been the one time I didn't counter a comment with something the Yanks had done, but since you asked...

 

The Yankees developed an ace and a mid rotation starter on their current team. The mid rotation starter happens to have been on shelf due to TJS. How have the sox done again in the pitching development realm? The sox massively overhype their prospects too. EVERYONE overhypes their prospects. The one thing the Yanks have done that the sox refuse to do is to deal their prospects for other prospects or their good looking rookies for other young players. The sox fall in love with their prospects when their farm is good. The Yanks may hype them and deal off the ones who they dont see as being impact guys. We made out well with these moves. The Voit trade. The Tauchman trade. The Didi trade. The Hicks trade. We have been moving pre-arb players for arb or earlier players for years and have used it as a way to restock the farm or build depth. We have also used our depth to deal off guys who wouldn't make our 40 man for long term prospects. That is how we got Juan Then (the guy we used to get EE) and Luis Gil (for Jake Cave).

 

ahahahahaha. i guess we will just have to live with the 4 parades and celebrating on your infield during 2 of those runs to help us sleep at night that you are so great at trading prospects for prospects and we suck at it. ahahahahahahahaha

[jacksonianmarch]

ahahahahaha. i guess we will just have to live with the 4 parades and celebrating on your infield during 2 of those runs to help us sleep at night that you are so great at trading prospects for prospects and we suck at it. ahahahahahahahaha

 

You won 4 titles and yes eliminated us twice. We decided to copy your plan and hence have created a well built and deep AL East champion with a pretty deep farm. You guys decided to copy our past plan and spent ridiculous and blew through your prospects like a coke fiend on payday. The depths you’re gonna fall to will be deep. You haven’t experienced this since the 90s. Enjoy it. You’re now the 2013 Yanks. Bloated contracts, no hope. And you don’t have a Cashman to dig you out.

[moonslav59]

You won 4 titles and yes eliminated us twice. We decided to copy your plan and hence have created a well built and deep AL East champion with a pretty deep farm. You guys decided to copy our past plan and spent ridiculous and blew through your prospects like a coke fiend on payday. The depths you’re gonna fall to will be deep. You haven’t experienced this since the 90s. Enjoy it. You’re now the 2013 Yanks. Bloated contracts, no hope. And you don’t have a Cashman to dig you out.

 

Didn't you just say we over hype and fall in love with our top prospects? Is trading them all showing "love?" Which one are we?

[moonslav59]

You won 4 titles and yes eliminated us twice. We decided to copy your plan and hence have created a well built and deep AL East champion with a pretty deep farm. You guys decided to copy our past plan and spent ridiculous and blew through your prospects like a coke fiend on payday. The depths you’re gonna fall to will be deep. You haven’t experienced this since the 90s. Enjoy it. You’re now the 2013 Yanks. Bloated contracts, no hope. And you don’t have a Cashman to dig you out.

 

Sox Long Term Deals and Ages of Players' Last Seasons:

 

Yrs Player (last year) age of player in last year (first day)

8 Pedroia ('21) 37

7 Price ('22) 36

6 Bogaerts ('25 + option '26) 32

5 Sale ('24 + option'25) 34

5 JD M ('22 if no opt out) 34

4 Porcello ('19) 30

4 Eovaldi ('22) 32

3 Vazquez ('21 + option '22) 30

 

Since the Price signing, we haven't signed anyone beyond the age 34 mark.

 

Yes, some guys we signed showed injury issues prior to signing them, but only Bogey's is more than 5 years. Sale has 5 left- Eovaldi 3. That might hurt us badly, if they barely pitch, but these aren't 7 year deals.

[jacksonianmarch]

Didn't you just say we over hype and fall in love with our top prospects? Is trading them all showing "love?" Which one are we?

 

EVERYONE overhypes their prospects. But, it doesn't mean those prospects are useless.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox Long Term Deals and Ages of Players' Last Seasons:

 

Yrs Player (last year) age of player in last year (first day)

8 Pedroia ('21) 37

7 Price ('22) 36

6 Bogaerts ('25 + option '26) 32

5 Sale ('24 + option'25) 34

5 JD M ('22 if no opt out) 34

4 Porcello ('19) 30

4 Eovaldi ('22) 32

3 Vazquez ('21 + option '22) 30

 

Since the Price signing, we haven't signed anyone beyond the age 34 mark.

 

Yes, some guys we signed showed injury issues prior to signing them, but only Bogey's is more than 5 years. Sale has 5 left- Eovaldi 3. That might hurt us badly, if they barely pitch, but these aren't 7 year deals.

 

I know they're not 7 year deals. You have 3 more years of lux tax hell as it stands. Having $77 mil AAV locked up in 3 unreliable and injury prone starters isn't a great way to build a good team. Especially if those starters end up trending down in production when they are healthy.

[notin]

This might have been the one time I didn't counter a comment with something the Yanks had done, but since you asked...

 

The Yankees developed an ace and a mid rotation starter on their current team. The mid rotation starter happens to have been on shelf due to TJS. How have the sox done again in the pitching development realm? The sox massively overhype their prospects too. EVERYONE overhypes their prospects. The one thing the Yanks have done that the sox refuse to do is to deal their prospects for other prospects or their good looking rookies for other young players. The sox fall in love with their prospects when their farm is good. The Yanks may hype them and deal off the ones who they dont see as being impact guys. We made out well with these moves. The Voit trade. The Tauchman trade. The Didi trade. The Hicks trade. We have been moving pre-arb players for arb or earlier players for years and have used it as a way to restock the farm or build depth. We have also used our depth to deal off guys who wouldn't make our 40 man for long term prospects. That is how we got Juan Then (the guy we used to get EE) and Luis Gil (for Jake Cave).

 

THe Yankees did a great job identifying players like Voit, Urshela, Tauchman and Grigorius. But this wasn't commentary about position players.

 

Your comment was about how the Sox have not developed any starters since Buchholz and Lester - at least not in the cradle to grave fashion. This is true. But my point is, despite a lot of hype, the Yankee haven't either. In that timeframe since 2007, the Yankees have developed 4 starters this way - Severino, Montogmery, Nova and Phil Hughes. That's not exactly a lot of development over the past 12 seasons, and really, coutning Montgomery might be a bit premature given he really has not pitched all that much. So while the Sox might get an "F" in starting pitcher development, the Yankees are in the "D" to "D-" range. The big difference is, the Sox NEVER seem to have pitchers cracking anyone's top 100 list. Groome and Ball made one appearance each. Henry Owens made BA list. Not much else. And the book is far from closed on Groome. The Yankees, on the other hand, must have had more SP ranked over the past 12 years than the Sox. But it has not translated into a better revolving door of SP.

 

Really the Sox big issue is that they keep trading away the starting pitching. It's a bit of a fallacy to say they have not drafted or developed a MLB started since 2007; they just have not kept one. Montas, Beeks, Allen. All traded away. Still not a lot, but it does keep this from being an absolute "0" here...

[notin]

EVERYONE overhypes their prospects. But, it doesn't mean those prospects are useless.

 

Dombrowski doesn't overhype prospects. Other than as for use as currency, I am not sure he acknowledges them at all.

 

In general, the overhyping of Sox prospects seems to pale in comparison to other teams. Even soxprospects.com has dialed back a ton in that department, and their best move was getting rid of the "MLB Comparison" in the profile...