A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Athletic Aug 30 2019 makes the case as follows: "For more than a decade, the Red Sox’ 30-plus area scouts, national crosscheckers and scouting supervisors have been better than most when it comes to drafting big league talent and finding late-round impact. Their success can be overshadowed by the team’s massive payroll and Dave Dombrowski’s wheeling-and-dealing approach, but amateur scouting has facilitated high-profile trades and built the core of a championship roster. For the final out of last year’s World Series, five of the nine Red Sox on the field had been drafted by the team, and two more had been acquired in trades involving draft picks. The other two had been developed as international free agents.

 

By comparison, the Red Sox’ most recent drafts are trending well above average. For their 10 draft classes from 2007 to 2016, the Red Sox already have gotten 16 of their 20 first-round picks to the big leagues (a number that includes supplemental first-rounders). That’s an 80 percent success rate, well above the league average,

 

The Red Sox have gotten that impact despite typically drafting near the bottom of the first round. Twice since 2007 they haven’t had a true first-round pick, and twice they haven’t had a second-round pick. In that time, they’ve only twice picked higher than 12th overall. Eight of those first-round picks were No. 20 or later.

 

That's why I believe as I do.

 

Old news.

 

The sample ends in 2016. You used to be able to draft "unsignable" prospects late in the rounds, becauee there were no spending limits in signing draftees. It's changed, dude! BIGTIME!

 

The International FA system radically changed since then. There is bonus pool money and penalties to those who spend too much.

 

We haven't drafted well while picking low in ages. We got Casas & Kopech since 2012. That's it. (Beni was a 7th pick.)

Edited October 2, 2019 by moonslav59

[Elktonnick]

Old news.

 

The sample ends in 2016. You used to be able to draft "unsignable" prospects late in the rounds, becauee there were no spending limits in signing draftees. It's changed, dude! BIGTIME!

 

The International FA system radically changed since then. There is bonus pool money and penalties to those who spend too much.

 

We haven't drafted well while picking low in ages. We got Casas & Kopech since 2012. That's it. (Beni was a 7th pick.)

 

The article was written a month ago. It is hardly old news. You are overly fixated on the IFAs. They aren't the only source of major league talent as Betts, Benintendi, et al attest. The author cites the facts demonstrated with clear data that Boston has better scouts based on clear results. We have track record of finding the talent that others don't recognize either through direct draft or through a series of astute trades. We have a proven track record of developing solid hitters demonstrated by hard data which shows better results than the major league average.

 

We have only had one year since we won the title. In two years the historical record suggests that the sox will have a farm system ranked in the top ten. All you have is idle speculation that the sox minor league system won't perform up to its historical record. I will take a ten to 15year record of proven results of finding developing and producing major league talent over pessimistic musings especially when one can not cite any authoritative source to support such a claim.

Edited October 2, 2019 by Elktonnick

[S5Dewey]

Whatever Henry chooses to do is fine with me. He's the best thing that happened to the Sox, and it's not even close.

 

It was great that he spent so much to bring us rings, but part of me felt like it was getting out of hand, and we were becoming the modern day Yankees. I don't want other teams saying, "They win because the buy championships." In some sense, almost every team that has won has spent big on a FA (or a few), but we were blowing other teams away with our spending- like the Yanks of old.

 

I'm hopeful we get back to spending after we reset, but I'd rather see us win without being the top spender (like 2004 and 2007), if we can. Of course winning while spending large is still nice, but I think you know what I mean.

 

Reset.

 

Build the farm back to at least mediocrity.

 

Spend on a few key players.

 

Get back to glory as quickly as possible within the framework of a reset and avoidance of max penalties.

 

This all sounds very easy when sitting in front of a keyboard but there are some things that have to happen that are very difficult to do in real life.

 

First of all, if you're going to build a winning team through drafting your scouts and coaches have to be a lot better than anyone else's. The scouts need to be able to recognize the talent that still available down in the draft because, remember, it's a winning team so your draft picks are lower every year. At the same time the coaches have to be able to develop that talent.

 

Second, and this may be even more difficult, everyone, the fans, the FO, everyone has to be willing to sell high on players. You have to be willing to trade players when they're playing well and are contributing to the team - and that's difficult to do especially after a WSC. By selling high you avoid paying them a lot of money for past performance, but you take the risk of losing good players.

 

IOW you have to be willing to become the Tampa Bay Rays.

[moonslav59]

The article was written a month ago. It is hardly old news. You are overly fixated on the IFAs. They aren't the only source of major league talent as Betts, Benintendi, et al attest. The author cites the facts demonstrated with clear data that Boston has better scouts based on clear results. We have track record of finding the talent that others don't recognize either through direct draft or through a series of astute trades. We have a proven track record of developing solid hitters demonstrated by hard data which shows better results than the major league average.

 

We have only had one year since we won the title. In two years the historical record suggests that the sox will have a farm system ranked in the top ten. All you have is idle speculation that the sox minor league system won't perform up to its historical record. I will take a ten to 15year record of proven results of finding developing and producing major league talent over pessimistic musings especially when one can not cite any authoritative source to support such a claim.

 

The article is based on old news (2007-2016) before all the changes made to the system and when we had different management and scouting teams.

[moonslav59]

This all sounds very easy when sitting in front of a keyboard but there are some things that have to happen that are very difficult to do in real life.

 

First of all, if you're going to build a winning team through drafting your scouts and coaches have to be a lot better than anyone else's. The scouts need to be able to recognize the talent that still available down in the draft because, remember, it's a winning team so your draft picks are lower every year. At the same time the coaches have to be able to develop that talent.

 

Second, and this may be even more difficult, everyone, the fans, the FO, everyone has to be willing to sell high on players. You have to be willing to trade players when they're playing well and are contributing to the team - and that's difficult to do especially after a WSC. By selling high you avoid paying them a lot of money for past performance, but you take the risk of losing good players.

 

IOW you have to be willing to become the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

I totally agree with everything but the last sentence, although to some extent we do have to "sell high" like the Rays do, but just not to that extent.

 

I've said all along, we need to find the best scouts and talent developers and spotters, or at least top 5.

 

There is no evidence we have anywhere near that, now. What we did from 2003-2012 is behind us. We've had a pretty bad record drafting and signing IFAs since about 2012. I know the system has changed, but other winning teams find ways, and with the Yanks and Dodgers, it was by selling some top assets for prospects here and there.

 

It's time to trade JD & JBJ, try to hope others like Eovaldi, Price, Sale and Barnes build up value to either help us rebuild or to become future trade assets to further our rebuilding efforts. None of that will matter, if we can't score some top prospects through the draft and IFA market.

 

[cp176]

It is possible the Sox wanted Benintendi because they didn't really know where to play Moncada. Pedroia was supposed to lock up 2b and possible they had enough faith in Devers to handle 3B, coupled with no outfield talent on the horizon after Benintendi...

 

yes i believe that you are right. Benintendi in terms of developed talent was ahead of Moncada. Once again I was that guy as I continue to be who thinks that in terms of overall athleticism and potential Moncada overshadows Benintendi. We seem to be stuck in a time where some want to argue about who was traded and why as well as what we could have done if we kept everyone. In order to get Chris Sale, which i was and am delighted over, someone of quality had to be traded. We traded away the guy with monster potential and kept the guy who has done a decent job and likely will continue to do so. We did not have time to wait for Moncada to develop.

[cp176]

That is the sound of a man washing his hands of the offseason despite the fact he greenlighted the money for those 8 figure AAVs for Sale and Eovaldi. Henry has done this before, after each less than awesome season (which we've had blessedly few).

 

If this is accurate it is not particularly flattering with respect to John Henry. I'm ok with this because I do think that it is accurate. There might be good quality candidates who would have a tough time working for someone like this regardless of how much money he was willing to pay them.

[Elktonnick]

The article is based on old news (2007-2016) before all the changes made to the system and when we had different management and scouting teams.

 

You are wrong again. The article I cited goes on as follows

 

"When Dombrowski took over Red Sox baseball operations in 2015, he wasted little time making changes. Within months he traded for Kimbrel and signed David Price, but he didn’t touch the amateur scouting department.

“I had the advantage of being somewhere else and knowing what the reports were on various organizations,” Dombrowski said. “So, there was no question that was an area of strength of the organization.”

When vice president of amateur scouting Amiel Sawdaye left for the Diamondbacks a year later, the Red Sox filled the position from within by promoting former scout, crosschecker, coordinator and director Mike Rikard – whose first selection as scouting director had been Benintendi. The group has just kept chugging forward ever since.

“We found a really good process many years ago,” Rikard said. “We’ve honed that, we’ve improved that. We’ve continued to advance a lot of the concepts and ways of doing things through the years. We’ve also been very fortunate that we’ve been able to keep the majority of our staff together through the years. There’s nothing really that compares with knowing each other and having a consistency in the approach.”

 

When this season started, the Red Sox system had been so thinned by trades and big-league promotions that Baseball America ranked it dead last among the 30 organizations. After the trade deadline, Baseball America moved the Red Sox up to 22nd despite their not having a first-round pick this year and despite Chavis losing his prospect status. The early returns of the 2018 class were promising enough to justify the improved ranking, and the 2019 class now has an early standout in fourth-rounder Noah Song, who’s allowed one run in his first six pro starts."

 

Finally whose baseball judgment should we believe a professional baseball writer Chad Jennings who covers the Red Sox for The Athletic and was on the Red Sox beat previously for the Boston Herald or you.

Edited October 2, 2019 by Elktonnick

[cp176]

Not necessarily to change the subject here since it is all a good read, but I just read Tomase's article about 4 who he thinks are likely gone before next year, and I have to say that even though I understand that changes need to be made and are coming, I can't help feeling sad about not seeing this group in Red Sox unis next year - JBJ, Porcello, Moreland, and Holt. Each has made huge contributions to this franchise. Holt and Porcello have been very outspoken about how much they love playing for this franchise. it is rare to find professional athletes as comitted as they have been. If they are in fact on the way out, i will miss them and wish them nothing but the best.

[notin]

Old news.

 

The sample ends in 2016. You used to be able to draft "unsignable" prospects late in the rounds, becauee there were no spending limits in signing draftees. It's changed, dude! BIGTIME!

 

The International FA system radically changed since then. There is bonus pool money and penalties to those who spend too much.

 

We haven't drafted well while picking low in ages. We got Casas & Kopech since 2012. That's it. (Beni was a 7th pick.)

 

That's how we got Lars Anderson...

[notin]

Not necessarily to change the subject here since it is all a good read, but I just read Tomase's article about 4 who he thinks are likely gone before next year, and I have to say that even though I understand that changes need to be made and are coming, I can't help feeling sad about not seeing this group in Red Sox unis next year - JBJ, Porcello, Moreland, and Holt. Each has made huge contributions to this franchise. Holt and Porcello have been very outspoken about how much they love playing for this franchise. it is rare to find professional athletes as comitted as they have been. If they are in fact on the way out, i will miss them and wish them nothing but the best.

 

Given no budget limits, I'd like to see all of them back except Moreland, who I'm a bit indifferent on. Of course, I can only judge him as an MLB first baseman and not as a teammate...

[notin]

yes i believe that you are right. Benintendi in terms of developed talent was ahead of Moncada. Once again I was that guy as I continue to be who thinks that in terms of overall athleticism and potential Moncada overshadows Benintendi. We seem to be stuck in a time where some want to argue about who was traded and why as well as what we could have done if we kept everyone. In order to get Chris Sale, which i was and am delighted over, someone of quality had to be traded. We traded away the guy with monster potential and kept the guy who has done a decent job and likely will continue to do so. We did not have time to wait for Moncada to develop.

 

The Sale trade was the cost of doing business. Someone good had to go, and if we had dealt Benintendi, we'd probably still see this same discussion with those two names reversed.

 

The initial asking price for Josh Beckett was reportedly Pedroia and Lester and the Sox managed to get away with a package of Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. I'm sure a lot of people hated that trade when Pedroia had a .561 OPS in 2006 and Lester had a 4.76 ERA, meanwhile Hanley had a .833 OPS that first year and Sanchez threw a perfect game. But I think we most people now agree the Sox traded the right two players there...

[Slasher9]

Not necessarily to change the subject here since it is all a good read, but I just read Tomase's article about 4 who he thinks are likely gone before next year, and I have to say that even though I understand that changes need to be made and are coming, I can't help feeling sad about not seeing this group in Red Sox unis next year - JBJ, Porcello, Moreland, and Holt. Each has made huge contributions to this franchise. Holt and Porcello have been very outspoken about how much they love playing for this franchise. it is rare to find professional athletes as comitted as they have been. If they are in fact on the way out, i will miss them and wish them nothing but the best.

 

the cliff is real

[cp176]

Given no budget limits, I'd like to see all of them back except Moreland, who I'm a bit indifferent on. Of course, I can only judge him as an MLB first baseman and not as a teammate...

 

I agree with you here. With respect to Moreland, I get it. He played a role but not nearly the role the other three have played.

[notin]

the cliff is real

 

Aren't the Sox standing on it and looking down?

[cp176]

the cliff is real

 

 

Cliff Claven!

[notin]

Cliff Claven!

 

"Ehhhhyaaaaaaaaahhhh actually it was the ancient Sumerians who first had the concept of the modern farm system.... "

[Slasher9]

Aren't the Sox standing on it and looking down?

 

yes. that is what i said?

[cp176]

The Sale trade was the cost of doing business. Someone good had to go, and if we had dealt Benintendi, we'd probably still see this same discussion with those two names reversed.

 

The initial asking price for Josh Beckett was reportedly Pedroia and Lester and the Sox managed to get away with a package of Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. I'm sure a lot of people hated that trade when Pedroia had a .561 OPS in 2006 and Lester had a 4.76 ERA, meanwhile Hanley had a .833 OPS that first year and Sanchez threw a perfect game. But I think we most people now agree the Sox traded the right two players there...

 

It is a logical way to look at things. Benintendi was the darling prospect - Successful at every level. A no brainer to keep in the eyes of most. I loved his signing and wish that it had never come down to trading either of the two but it did. When i saw Benintendi and Moncada standing side by side in Portland, I became a big fan of Moncadas. A man child if you will. A lot bigger and stronger than Beni will ever be. Limitless potential. I am a fan and have gotten over losing him. I have never complained about the trade and am happy that Benintendi has done a pretty good job for us overall. It was indeed the price of doing business. it makes no difference that many of our arm chair GMs might think that if they were in charge they could have acquired Chris Sale for less. Done deal.

[cp176]

"Ehhhhyaaaaaaaaahhhh actually it was the ancient Sumerians who first had the concept of the modern farm system.... "

 

 

and writing too

[moonslav59]

You are wrong again. The article I cited goes on as follows

 

"When Dombrowski took over Red Sox baseball operations in 2015, he wasted little time making changes. Within months he traded for Kimbrel and signed David Price, but he didn’t touch the amateur scouting department.

“I had the advantage of being somewhere else and knowing what the reports were on various organizations,” Dombrowski said. “So, there was no question that was an area of strength of the organization.”

When vice president of amateur scouting Amiel Sawdaye left for the Diamondbacks a year later, the Red Sox filled the position from within by promoting former scout, crosschecker, coordinator and director Mike Rikard – whose first selection as scouting director had been Benintendi. The group has just kept chugging forward ever since.

“We found a really good process many years ago,” Rikard said. “We’ve honed that, we’ve improved that. We’ve continued to advance a lot of the concepts and ways of doing things through the years. We’ve also been very fortunate that we’ve been able to keep the majority of our staff together through the years. There’s nothing really that compares with knowing each other and having a consistency in the approach.”

 

When this season started, the Red Sox system had been so thinned by trades and big-league promotions that Baseball America ranked it dead last among the 30 organizations. After the trade deadline, Baseball America moved the Red Sox up to 22nd despite their not having a first-round pick this year and despite Chavis losing his prospect status. The early returns of the 2018 class were promising enough to justify the improved ranking, and the 2019 class now has an early standout in fourth-rounder Noah Song, who’s allowed one run in his first six pro starts."

 

Finally whose baseball judgment should we believe a professional baseball writer Chad Jennings who covers the Red Sox for The Athletic and was on the Red Sox beat previously for the Boston Herald or you.

 

22nd is no where near what we were before, and that is just one service saying we are 22nd. It's a good source, but most of the article was about 2007-2016,

 

I've never said our farm was totally void of talent, but the few bright stars are far away.

 

Chavis losing prospect status is a tiny blip. The guy hit under .700 for the 3 months after his first 2-3 weeks.

[notin]

22nd is no where near what we were before, and that is just one service saying we are 22nd. It's a good source, but most of the article was about 2007-2016,

 

I've never said our farm was totally void of talent, but the few bright stars are far away.

 

Chavis losing prospect status is a tiny blip. The guy hit under .700 for the 3 months after his first 2-3 weeks.

 

At some point, there is the potential that Groome will be a factor as well. And really, ranking a farm system is all about ranking potential...

[notin]

"Ehhhhyaaaaaaaaahhhh actually it was the ancient Sumerians who first had the concept of the modern farm system.... "

 

"Ehhhhyaaaaaaaaahhhh that's a common misconception. It was originally the ancient Egyptians who invented what we call writing. It was the King Cheops who wrote down the blueprints for the pyramids based on instructions from the aliens...."

 

OK it's really hard to do a Cliff Claven impression on a message board...

[cp176]

"Ehhhhyaaaaaaaaahhhh that's a common misconception. It was originally the ancient Egyptians who invented what we call writing. It was the King Cheops who wrote down the blueprints for the pyramids based on instructions from the aliens...."

 

OK it's really hard to do a Cliff Claven impression on a message board...

 

you are working it admirably though!!!!!

[notin]

you are working it admirably though!!!!!

 

I'm doing what little I can with limited ability in this medium and the fact that I'm trying to make 30 year old pop culture references. There are people reading this who weren't even born when that show went off the air....

[OH FOY]

Well for you to be covered in s***, you need to beat the Astros, then the Dodgers (most likely) as we did in 2018. Good luck , Jack. The feeling when you do that is like a shot of heroin in the carotid.

 

Agreed, The Astros and the Dodgers are going to be good for a while, they will have money to spend and Strong Farms. You can do both if you have smart people running Operations. Spending without building is going to catch you in the end.

Garritt Cole will probably walk and the Astros will let him because someone in the Farm, will just come up.

Edited October 2, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, The Astros and the Dodgers are going to be good for a while, they will have money to spend and Strong Farms. You can do both if you have smart people running Operations. Spending without building is going to catch you in the end.

Garritt Cole will probably walk and the Astros will let him because someone in the Farm, will just come up.

 

The Astros are going to have some payroll issues of their own next year.

 

They already have a 2020 projected payroll for tax purposes of $163 million, and that only covers 8 players, doesn't include any of the arb players.

[OH FOY]

Here's 2021 Payroll at this time, for all the teams.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2021/

[OH FOY]

Here's Sportstrac on the Astros.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/2020/

[OH FOY]

I can see the Astros moving Springer.