Desired Opponent in Playoffs

[harmony]

Seattle has been a very lucky team.

 

They have no business being in the race with Houston.

Seattle had been a very luck team.

 

The luck has run out.

[Kimmi]

Seattle had been a very luck team.

 

The luck has run out.

 

As it eventually always does.

 

The good news is, Seattle is not out of it yet.

[mvp 78]

Sweep the Yankees in the ALDS.

[mvp 78]

Just worried that they don’t have enough clutch players on the roster!

[moonslav59]

As it eventually always does.

 

The good news is, Seattle is not out of it yet.

 

Luck doesn't always run out.

[harmony]

As it eventually always does.

 

The good news is, Seattle is not out of it yet.

The Seattle season has been an all-time "anomaly," according to FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mariners-still-look-like-an-all-time-anomaly/

[Kimmi]

The Seattle season has been an all-time "anomaly," according to FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mariners-still-look-like-an-all-time-anomaly/

 

As always, some good stuff from Sullivan.

 

Earlier in the season, I posted two facts that didn't go over too well with the masses, but I 100% stick by them as facts.

 

1. A team's record in one run games will eventually regress to .500.

2. You can tell more about the true talent of a team by looking at its record in blowout games than by looking at its record in one run games.

 

The Mariners are 31-16 in one run games. They are 11-20 in blowout games.

 

FTR, the Mariners' anomaly of a season is the kind of thing that I find extremely interesting and exciting.

[Bellhorn04]

Earlier in the season, I posted two facts that didn't go over too well with the masses, but I 100% stick by them as facts.

 

1. A team's record in one run games will eventually regress to .500.

 

Although sometimes the luck can continue for a whole season.

[S5Dewey]

Although sometimes the luck can continue for a whole season.

 

As Bill James said in one of his early Baseball Abstracts, (and I'm paraphrasing here) Most one-run games are decided by luck and luck will eventually even itself out. If a team wins an inordinate number of one-run games in one season you can look for them to lose an inordinate number over the next season.

 

Obviously it's not as cut and dried as exactly two seasons but you get the point.

[Kimmi]

Although sometimes the luck can continue for a whole season.

 

Absolutely, hence the word 'eventually'.

 

The point being that winning one run games is not some special skill that any team will be able to sustain.

[Bellhorn04]

Although sometimes the luck can continue for a whole season.

 

Absolutely, hence the word 'eventually'.

 

The point being that winning one run games is not some special skill that any team will be able to sustain.

 

Although one might argue that if a team can get through a whole season lucky, that's all that matters, because next year it will be a different team.

[harmony]

As always, some good stuff from Sullivan.

 

Earlier in the season, I posted two facts that didn't go over too well with the masses, but I 100% stick by them as facts.

 

1. A team's record in one run games will eventually regress to .500.

2. You can tell more about the true talent of a team by looking at its record in blowout games than by looking at its record in one run games.

 

The Mariners are 31-16 in one run games. They are 11-20 in blowout games.

 

FTR, the Mariners' anomaly of a season is the kind of thing that I find extremely interesting and exciting.

This Mariner fan was about to write the same thing.

 

I suspect a team's record in one-run games should regress to that club's record in games decided by more than one run.

 

This year's Red Sox should have a better record in one-run games than the Orioles do.

Edited August 21, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

1. A team's record in one run games will eventually regress to .500.

 

That's just not true.

 

If someone flips a coin head 50 times in a row, it does not mean that by 1,000 flips, they will be closer to 500 heads and 500 tails than had they flipped 25 heads and 25 tails over the first 50 flips.

 

If a team starts out winning way more one-run games than the norm, chances are they will begin to win their norm for the remainder of the season- not make up for it by losing more one-run games than statistically probable.

 

If a .500 team wins 10 more games by 0ne run at the halfway point of a season, they'd probably be projected to end the season with 10 more wins, as statistically, they'd be projected to go .500 in those games over the second half.

 

15-5 first half

 

10-10 second half

 

25-15 final numbers (not 20-20). Now, 25-15 is closer to their norm than 15-5, so in a way they are progressing towards the norm, but they should never really reach the actual norm after starting off with a massive anomaly.

 

Seattle is still 31-16 in one-run games. They will not be at .500 in these games by season's end.

Edited August 21, 2018 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

There are a number of different scenarios that wind up resulting in a one run margin at the end. It is hard to make a generalization. But I think the word " luck " is thrown about a little too loosely when the results do not meet our expectations. Edited August 21, 2018 by dgalehouse

[mvp 78]

Better teams should win more 1 run games because they score more runs than their opponents and give up fewer runs. Not everything is solely about luck.

[S5Dewey]

1. A team's record in one run games will eventually regress to .500.

 

That's just not true.

 

If someone flips a coin head 50 times in a row, it does not mean that by 1,000 flips, they will be closer to 500 heads and 500 tails than had they flipped 25 heads and 25 tails over the first 50 flips.

 

If a team starts out winning way more one-run games than the norm, chances are they will begin to win their norm for the remainder of the season- not make up for it by losing more one-run games than statistically probable.

 

If a .500 team wins 10 more games by 0ne run at the halfway point of a season, they'd probably be projected to end the season with 10 more wins, as statistically, they'd be projected to go .500 in those games over the second half.

 

15-5 first half

 

10-10 second half

 

25-15 final numbers (not 20-20). Now, 25-15 is closer to their norm than 15-5, so in a way they are progressing towards the norm, but they should never really reach the actual norm after starting off with a massive anomaly.

 

Seattle is still 31-16 in one-run games. They will not be at .500 in these games by season's end.

 

I'm not sure you can equate a game of skills with a game of pure chance. And I agree with Galehouse that the word "luck" is used too loosely even by James.

IMO the only sure thing about one-run games is that exactly as many one run games will be won as lost during an entire MLB season.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure you can equate a game of skills with a game of pure chance. And I agree with Galehouse that the word "luck" is used too loosely even by James.

IMO the only sure thing about one-run games is that exactly as many one run games will be won as lost during an entire MLB season.

 

I didn't imply that better teams should only win 50% of their games. I implied that .500 teams would probably be expected to win about 50% of their one-run games.

 

If a .500 team starts out winning 15 of their first 20 one-run games, they should not be expected to go 5-15 over the next 20, in order to "regress to the (assumed) norm" of .500.

 

Baseball involves a lot of luck. I don't expect everything to come out as expected or projected.

Edited August 21, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Better teams should win more 1 run games because they score more runs than their opponents and give up fewer runs. Not everything is solely about luck.

 

I think you might be right.

 

I'm going to check this out a bit.

[mvp 78]

If someone wants to state that winning in extra innings is based on luck, they may have a point. Even then, the better team should win more often since their offense and/or pitching should be better than their opponent.

[Slasher9]

a lights out closer might have something to say about 1 run games.

IIRC the MFY always blew away my boy Pythagorean during the Mariano years. those 1 run W's......

[Bellhorn04]

a lights out closer might have something to say about 1 run games.

IIRC the MFY always blew away my boy Pythagorean during the Mariano years. those 1 run W's......

 

Right you are. I have some numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox 1995-2018

Total

W 2123 L 1710 .554

One-Run

W 518 L 494 .512

 

Yanks 1995-2018

Total

W 2232 L 1596 .583

One-Run

W 544 L 433 .557

[Kimmi]

Although one might argue that if a team can get through a whole season lucky, that's all that matters, because next year it will be a different team.

 

If a team can get through a whole season being lucky, then good on them. It doesn't matter whether you win because you're good or you win because you're lucky.

 

I'm just saying that wins and losses in one run games are due more to randomness than they are to talent.

 

The 2012 and 2013 Baltimore teams were largely the same. The Os went from 29-9 record (.763) in one run games in 2012 to a 20-31 record (.392) in 2013.

[Kimmi]

This Mariner fan was about to write the same thing.

 

I suspect a team's record in one-run games should regress to that club's record in games decided by more than one run.

 

This year's Red Sox should have a better record in one-run games than the Orioles do.

 

A team's record in one run games should regress closer to .500 than to that club's record in games decided by more than one run. Good teams tend to be a little higher than .500 while bad teams tend to be a little lower.

 

Yes, this year's Red Sox should have a better record one run games than the Orioles do, but not by that much. The Os, in addition to being bad, have also been unlucky.

[Kimmi]

1. A team's record in one run games will eventually regress to .500.

 

That's just not true.

 

If someone flips a coin head 50 times in a row, it does not mean that by 1,000 flips, they will be closer to 500 heads and 500 tails than had they flipped 25 heads and 25 tails over the first 50 flips.

 

If a team starts out winning way more one-run games than the norm, chances are they will begin to win their norm for the remainder of the season- not make up for it by losing more one-run games than statistically probable.

 

If a .500 team wins 10 more games by 0ne run at the halfway point of a season, they'd probably be projected to end the season with 10 more wins, as statistically, they'd be projected to go .500 in those games over the second half.

 

15-5 first half

 

10-10 second half

 

25-15 final numbers (not 20-20). Now, 25-15 is closer to their norm than 15-5, so in a way they are progressing towards the norm, but they should never really reach the actual norm after starting off with a massive anomaly.

 

Seattle is still 31-16 in one-run games. They will not be at .500 in these games by season's end.

 

Moon, please read post #88 in this thread:

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18530-General-catch-all-baseball-thread?p=1171710#post1171710

 

Most of what you posted here is inherent in the meaning of regression.

 

I have even used the Red Sox record in one run games on more than one occasion to point out this fact. Since their 5-0 record in one run games at the beginning of the season the Sox have gone 14-11 in one run games (.560%).

 

In contrast, since the 5-0 record in blowout games, the Sox have gone 23-9 (.719%).

[Kimmi]

Better teams should win more 1 run games because they score more runs than their opponents and give up fewer runs. Not everything is solely about luck.

 

Better teams do win more one run games than poor teams, just because they are better. But not to the same extent of their record in non one run games.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox 1995-2018

Total

W 2123 L 1710 .554

One-Run

W 518 L 494 .512

 

Yanks 1995-2018

Total

W 2232 L 1596 .583

One-Run

W 544 L 433 .557

 

As I just posted, Better teams do win more one run games than poor teams, just because they are better. But not to the same extent of their record in non one run games.

 

One run games are largely won or lost due to random factors. The closer the score of the game, the larger the impact of randomness on the outcome of the game.

[Kimmi]

Also, I will add that great bullpens do in fact help teams with their record in one run games, but not to the extent of a 29-9 record, which is unheard of.

[harmony]

A team's record in one run games should regress closer to .500 than to that club's record in games decided by more than one run. Good teams tend to be a little higher than .500 while bad teams tend to be a little lower.

 

Yes, this year's Red Sox should have a better record one run games than the Orioles do, but not by that much. The Os, in addition to being bad, have also been unlucky.

The Red Sox have an 82.38 (.698) record overall, 19-11 (.633) in one-run games and 28-9 (.757) in blowout games (of 5+ margins).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-schedule-scores.shtml

 

The Orioles have a 37-88 (.296) record overall, 11-23 (.324) in one-run games and 10-24 (.294 in blowout games.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2018-schedule-scores.shtml

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox have an 82.38 (.698) record overall, 19-11 (.633) in one-run games and 28-9 (.757) in blowout games (of 5+ margins).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-schedule-scores.shtml

 

The Orioles have a 37-88 (.296) record overall, 11-23 (.324) in one-run games and 10-24 (.294 in blowout games.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2018-schedule-scores.shtml

 

The Sox have been a little lucky in one run games and the Os have been a little unlucky in one run games. Typically, I believe the spread in winning % in those games should be closer to .550 to .450. That said, the Sox have been really good, and the Os have been really bad, so the disparity is not shocking, though still a little surprising.

 

Notice in both cases, the W-L record in one run games tends to be closer to .500 than the teams overall record, while the record in blowout games is not.