2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)

[jacksonianmarch]

One thing I will say for us is that our draft model was weird. We already had a TON of impact pitching in the system. Yes, we ended up moving Clarkin, Kaprielian and Guzman, but we still have impact arms galore with them gone. Going pitching deep was an interesting choice. It makes some sense when you see the INTL guys we brought in. We always seem to nab pitching in the draft and lean position player heavy internationally.

[moonslav59]

And this is why I tend to stay away from all the detailed stuff about farm rankings and prospects.

 

All that really matters to me is that Dombrowski and company make an intelligent effort to re-stock our depleted farm.

 

You can be the best drafter in MLB and still have a very difficult time building a farm to top 6 or 8 while finishing with a top 6 or 8 record for 5 years in a row. The top international players are also harder to hoard.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t agree with that. The Pirates picked in the top 10 for twenty straight years and they didn’t even have a superstar until McCutchen came along. Yes, picking at the back end of a draft means you won’t be able to get the can’t miss guys like Harper and Strasburg. But it doesn’t mean you can’t find a Mike Trout later in the draft. Very few teams win a title without good drafting and development. But the development part is key. Drafting is like picking the raw diamonds that look the best. Development is crafting and cutting them into works of art. You need both. If you get s*** diamonds it doesn’t matter how good you cut and shape them. If you get great diamonds, but your craftsmen are butchers then it’ll look like s***. You need both

[sk7326]

Trending up and trending down is an unreliable actual predictor of system health. If you’re a farm with prospects at the top of the minors, you’re trending down since the expectation is you’ll graduate them. If you’re an absolutely abysmal farm like SF but are staring at a top 2 pick, you’re trending up since you’re about to get a potential generational talent with that pick. Any team banking on their farm to be carried by the years most recent draft, especially when that draft started with a pick near the end, is hoping and praying more than actually staying in reality. I did like the sox draft, to be totally honest. It was a very pitching heavy draft with Houck and Scherff at the top. The thing I don’t get at this point, though, is the system love for Brannen. I get he’s an intriguing talent, but he’s effectively an athlete they hope will hit. Those guys shouldn’t be top 10 in a system until they start hitting unless the system is very weak.

 

With Brannen - there is a lot of physical projection involved.

 

Hauck is fascinating in that he has a reliever delivery - throws across his body. But he consistently got excellent results in the highest amateur level in the country.

[sk7326]

It is difficult to talk draft without the development part. If you look at evaluating kids (this is true in all sports to some degree) it's evaluating ceiling and probability. The top picks usually are pretty good in both.

 

When you don't pick at the top - you are compromising on ceiling or probability. You can see that with Theo's picks. Usually the probability guys were pitchers - Matt Barnes is a perfect example. He projected to be a big league pitcher - which is a good outcome for late 1st, but you're not getting a star there. Other times he chose ceiling - like a Reymond Fuentes or something. Usually that doesn't work - but the method is sound.

 

The Sox are still doing the sound thing - although Dombrowski is much more inclined to draft upside pitching than Theo and Ben were. Theo and Ben always preferred the lower variability that came with great up the middle athletes.

 

The tl;dr is that it's now on the instructional staff and the kids themselves to find the performance to match the skillz.

 

I don't lament the draft position too much when thinking about position guys - for pitching it seems to matter more. It means you trust scouts more - whether it means trusting a cold weather performer (why Trout fell) or a two sport athlete who just needed to play baseball more (Mookie Betts). Or you look for physical projection with some elite raw tools ... those guys will mostly bust, but it's like venture capital, one of them hitting pays for the busts.

[moonslav59]

I don’t agree with that. The Pirates picked in the top 10 for twenty straight years and they didn’t even have a superstar until McCutchen came along. Yes, picking at the back end of a draft means you won’t be able to get the can’t miss guys like Harper and Strasburg. But it doesn’t mean you can’t find a Mike Trout later in the draft. Very few teams win a title without good drafting and development. But the development part is key. Drafting is like picking the raw diamonds that look the best. Development is crafting and cutting them into works of art. You need both. If you get s*** diamonds it doesn’t matter how good you cut and shape them. If you get great diamonds, but your craftsmen are butchers then it’ll look like s***. You need both

 

Of course, teams squander high draft picks, even multiple ones year-after-year, but most of the best farms are built with top picks or stockpiling comp picks (or both) plus finding a few good international FAs.

 

Not many perennial winners have built top 6 farms through the draft. Some did it by having an occasional fire sale during an off year (but then they might not be called a perennial winner) or by spending big and being successful with international free agents. Now, that's not as easy as before either.

 

Look at the Sox. We built a strong farm in the early 2000's with stock-piled comp picks and a few good international signings. We built a strong farm the same way with Ben at the helm, but he got a few higher draft picks as well and hit it good with Beni. (The jury is still out on Groome, but where would are farm be ranked now without him?)

 

There certainly are teams that keep their farm pretty strong through winning years, but it's very hard to build to a top 6 level without losing or getting comp picks galore.

 

The Yanks built their farm with comp picks, a few nice 25-35 slot picks (like Judge) and several trades of veterans for prospects.

[moonslav59]

It is difficult to talk draft without the development part. If you look at evaluating kids (this is true in all sports to some degree) it's evaluating ceiling and probability. The top picks usually are pretty good in both.

 

When you don't pick at the top - you are compromising on ceiling or probability. You can see that with Theo's picks. Usually the probability guys were pitchers - Matt Barnes is a perfect example. He projected to be a big league pitcher - which is a good outcome for late 1st, but you're not getting a star there. Other times he chose ceiling - like a Reymond Fuentes or something. Usually that doesn't work - but the method is sound.

 

The Sox are still doing the sound thing - although Dombrowski is much more inclined to draft upside pitching than Theo and Ben were. Theo and Ben always preferred the lower variability that came with great up the middle athletes.

 

The tl;dr is that it's now on the instructional staff and the kids themselves to find the performance to match the skillz.

 

I don't lament the draft position too much when thinking about position guys - for pitching it seems to matter more. It means you trust scouts more - whether it means trusting a cold weather performer (why Trout fell) or a two sport athlete who just needed to play baseball more (Mookie Betts). Or you look for physical projection with some elite raw tools ... those guys will mostly bust, but it's like venture capital, one of them hitting pays for the busts.

 

Excellent post.

 

Here's a look at Theo's drafts with the Sox:

 

2004: (lost 1st round pick for signing Foulke)

Pedey (2nd rd)

 

2005: (6 comp picks for losing Pedro, DLowe and OCab/lost own 1st rd'er for signing Renteria)

1st Rd Comps: Ellsbury & Hansen

Supp Rd Comps: Buch, Lowrie, Bowden & Egan

 

2006:

27th pick Jason Place

Supp picks: Kris Johnson, Caleb Clay & Aaron Bates

2nd Rd (71) Masterson

 

2007: (lost 1st rd for signing Julio Lugo)

Supp picks: Hagadone & Ryan Dent

5th rd Middy & 6th rd Rizzo

 

2008:

30th Casey Kelly

Supp: Bryan Price & S Fife

5th Westmoreland & 9th Vazquez

 

2009:

28th Reymond Fuentes

2nd Alex Wilson

 

2010: (Lost 1st rd by signing Lackey)

Comp pick: Vitek

Supp: Brentz, Ranaudo & Workman

 

2011: (Lost top pick by signing Crawford)

Comp picks: 19th Barnes (VMart), 26th Swihart (Beltre), 36th Owens (VMart) & JBJ (Beltre)

5th rd. Betts

 

Theo also signed these international FAs:

2004: Doubront

2005: Dice-K & Okajima

2008: Tazawa

2009: Bogey, Iggy, Montas

2010: J Aro

2011: Margot, Lin

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

With Brannen - there is a lot of physical projection involved.

 

Hauck is fascinating in that he has a reliever delivery - throws across his body. But he consistently got excellent results in the highest amateur level in the country.

 

Brannen has the physical projection, but any time you snag a guy who is more athlete than hitter you wonder if the hit tool will progress. Hauck screams reliever to me, but I think he could be a good one. That being said, nobody, not the guys scouting him, the guys coaching him or guys like me typing at a keyboard has any clue what he will become ultimately. Regardless, I think Scherff has the highest ceiling, Hauck the lowest floor and Brannen is a potential boom or bust as well. The rest of their top 10 grades out as potential big leaguers without the flash to be all star caliber barring something unforeseen.

[jacksonianmarch]

Of course, teams squander high draft picks, even multiple ones year-after-year, but most of the best farms are built with top picks or stockpiling comp picks (or both) plus finding a few good international FAs.

 

Not many perennial winners have built top 6 farms through the draft. Some did it by having an occasional fire sale during an off year (but then they might not be called a perennial winner) or by spending big and being successful with international free agents. Now, that's not as easy as before either.

 

Look at the Sox. We built a strong farm in the early 2000's with stock-piled comp picks and a few good international signings. We built a strong farm the same way with Ben at the helm, but he got a few higher draft picks as well and hit it good with Beni. (The jury is still out on Groome, but where would are farm be ranked now without him?)

 

There certainly are teams that keep their farm pretty strong through winning years, but it's very hard to build to a top 6 level without losing or getting comp picks galore.

 

The Yanks built their farm with comp picks, a few nice 25-35 slot picks (like Judge) and several trades of veterans for prospects.

 

The Yankees built their farm and current squad through a multitude of facets. Look at the list of guys on the big league and prospect ladder

MLB

Sanchez- INTL signee

Bird- draft pick

Torres- Fire sale Trade

Gregorius- Trade of a rookie

Andujar- INTL signee

Gardner- draft

Hicks- trade of a rookie

Judge- draft

Stanton- trade of prospects (and money)

Severino- INTL

Tanaka- FA

Montgomery- draft

Sabathia- FA

Gray- trade of prospects

Betances- draft

Chapman- FA (trade initially)

Warren- draft (trade later)

Robertson- draft (trade later)

Green- trade of a veteran

Kahnle- draft, trade later

 

Prospects-

Florial- INTL signee

Sheffield- fire sale trade

Frazier- fire sale trade

Wade- draft

Estrada- INTL signee

Adams- draft

Acevedo- INTL signee

Tate- fire sale trade

Perez- INTL signee

Solak- draft

Abreu- trade, not fire sale (McCann had no place to play)

 

That's 7 INTL signees, 11 guys initially drafted by NYY, 2 players traded for by pooling prospects, 4 fire sale trades, 4 similar value trades and 3 FAs. (BTW, 3 of our previously drafted players were re-acquired in trades, Kahnle, Robertson and Warren). So while everyone seems to want to point to a fire sale as to how to rebuild fast, it isn't really true

[moonslav59]

Brannen has the physical projection, but any time you snag a guy who is more athlete than hitter you wonder if the hit tool will progress. Hauck screams reliever to me, but I think he could be a good one. That being said, nobody, not the guys scouting him, the guys coaching him or guys like me typing at a keyboard has any clue what he will become ultimately. Regardless, I think Scherff has the highest ceiling, Hauck the lowest floor and Brannen is a potential boom or bust as well. The rest of their top 10 grades out as potential big leaguers without the flash to be all star caliber barring something unforeseen.

 

Well said. Nobody we have drafted recently is even close to being a lock at becoming even a decent MLB player. We've all seen many players with similar profiles struggle or fizzle out.

 

I have hopes, but I'm not counting on getting much from our farm over the next 2-3 years.

 

The young player acquisition system is much different than even just a few short years ago.

 

Some good players still slip down in the draft due to signing issues. The slot money allotment keeps some of this in check, so this area of winning teams getting gems is much harder now. The international free agent limits are much stricter now. Even the policing of established rules has gotten stricter.

 

I'm curious to see how GMs can build a strong farm while winning consistently for a long stretch. Gaining comp picks and trading for pool money might help, but I'm of a mind that I'll believe it when I see it happen.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Analytics are the huge hot button topic right now. Expect the Yankees to be copied. They changed their scouting approach to include measurable data. Exit velocities, spin rates, dynamic evaluations, new age stuff. And for the most part, it has worked. I expect their farm to be copied something fierce

[moonslav59]

Analytics are the huge hot button topic right now. Expect the Yankees to be copied. They changed their scouting approach to include measurable data. Exit velocities, spin rates, dynamic evaluations, new age stuff. And for the most part, it has worked. I expect their farm to be copied something fierce

 

The decision to trade vets for prospects gave your farm a big boost, and maybe your "analytics" had a lot to do with getting good hauls on most of your deals.

 

The Sox reportedly drafted Betts based on some pretty cutting edge analytics way back when. I'm wondering how many teams copied us.

 

[sk7326]

Analytics are the huge hot button topic right now. Expect the Yankees to be copied. They changed their scouting approach to include measurable data. Exit velocities, spin rates, dynamic evaluations, new age stuff. And for the most part, it has worked. I expect their farm to be copied something fierce

 

Maybe - but the Astros were already there, and the Sox were too to a certain degree. The Yankees real magic was pouncing on sell-offs with Miller and Chapman. The rest is not that amazing. And in both cases you can't blame the Cubs or Guardians for doing it - flags fly forever - but there you go.

[jacksonianmarch]

I laid it out for you above. The trades helped build the farm, but the INTL signings and the draft have been more numerous and more profitable at this point than the sell off was

[moonslav59]

I laid it out for you above. The trades helped build the farm, but the INTL signings and the draft have been more numerous and more profitable at this point than the sell off was

 

...but by itself, your farm (and recent grads) would not be nearly as remarkable.

[jacksonianmarch]

No recent grads were in the firesale unless you want to consider Frazier?

[moonslav59]

The Chapman, Miller and Beltran fire sale helped a lot.

 

It's not a common way for a winning team to rebuild, in that it was for prospects- not like the Sox fire sale that brought us Kelly, Craig, Cespedes, ERod, Hembree and Escobar.

 

Chapman: Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, Caleb Cotham & Rookie Davis

Miller: Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller & JP Feyereisen

Beltran: NIck Green, Erik Swanson & Dillon Tate

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Cotham and Davis were used to get Chapman. Either way, the deal of Chapman did bring Warren back, so that much is true. Aside from him, we haven't reaped the benefits of the fire sale yet. But we will

[moonslav59]

Cotham and Davis were used to get Chapman. Either way, the deal of Chapman did bring Warren back, so that much is true. Aside from him, we haven't reaped the benefits of the fire sale yet. But we will

 

I was speaking to how your farm got so strong. The trades helped a lot.

[sk7326]

Cotham and Davis were used to get Chapman. Either way, the deal of Chapman did bring Warren back, so that much is true. Aside from him, we haven't reaped the benefits of the fire sale yet. But we will

 

The org's top 2 prospects and 3 of their Top 10 came from the fire sales. That is an incredible return for 2 relievers and a DH.

[moonslav59]

The org's top 2 prospects and 3 of their Top 10 came from the fire sales. That is an incredible return for 2 relievers and a DH.

 

This was what I had hoped we'd do when we traded Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Miller and Doubront.

 

I loved getting ERod and hoped Kelly would develop into a good starter, but Cespedes and Craig?

[Bellhorn04]

This was what I had hoped we'd do when we traded Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Miller and Doubront.

 

I loved getting ERod and hoped Kelly would develop into a good starter, but Cespedes and Craig?

 

Well, they did flip Cespedes for Porcello.

[moonslav59]

Well, they did flip Cespedes for Porcello.

 

I liked that move and the extension, but think of the prospects we could have gotten for Lester.

[Bellhorn04]

I liked that move and the extension, but think of the prospects we could have gotten for Lester.

 

Would you rather have prospects or Porcello?

[moonslav59]

The Yanks got Judge for, I believe, the comp pick for the QO on Swisher.

 

That makes me wonder, if we might get some comp picks for...

 

After 2018:

Pomeranz

Kimbrel

 

After 2019:

C Sale

Porcello

 

[Bellhorn04]

The Yanks got Judge for, I believe, the comp pick for the QO on Swisher.

 

That makes me wonder, if we might get some comp picks for...

 

After 2018:

Pomeranz

Kimbrel

 

After 2019:

C Sale

Porcello

 

 

I think the highest comp picks you can get for losing a free agent under the new system are sandwich picks.

[moonslav59]

I think the highest comp picks you can get for losing a free agent under the new system are sandwich picks.

 

Yes, and wasn't Judge like a "sandwich pick"? (32nd pick)

[jacksonianmarch]

Judge and Clarkson were. Jagielo went ahead of them

[moonslav59]

Judge and Clarkson were. Jagielo went ahead of them

 

Yes, and wasn't he used to get Chapman?

[jacksonianmarch]

Jagielo went for Chapman. Clarkin went in the Robertson deal