2017 MLB Draft Thread

[Jack Flap]

I noticed people were bumping the draft thread from last year, so I thought I'd go ahead and start a new one...

 

Here's a nice draft preview from SoxProspects which identifies some likely Red Sox targets... http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/2017redsoxdraftpreview.html

 

A few possible 1st round picks:

First Round (#24 overall)

 

Keston Hiura, 2B/OF, UC-Irvine – Hiura is a college junior with possibly the best hit tool in the draft. In addition to making plus contact and leading the NCAA in average and on-base percentage, he has above-average to plus power, excellent plate discipline, smooth mechanics, and fringe-average speed. He has played second base, left field, and center field in college, showing a below-average arm. An elbow injury has left his future projection on defense up in the air – he will likely require surgery. Interest in Hiura has been rumored to caught helium in recent days, so there's a strong possibility he may not be available when Boston's turn comes up.

 

Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri – Houck has a strong pitcher’s frame at 6’5”, 220, allowing him to work as Mizzou’s Friday night starter and as a two-year starter for Team USA. His arsenal includes a plus 90-94 mph sinker, an average slider, and a work-in-progress changeup, all thrown with above-average control and command. He’ll need to improve his secondary pitches to reach his potential as a top-end starter. Even if he doesn’t, he has a reasonable floor of a backend starter or high leverage reliever due to his combination of control and movement.

 

Evan White, 1B/OF, Kentucky – White is an excellent athlete and plus defensive player at first base, with potential to also play right field as a pro. He shows above-average speed, fluidity, and glovework, paired with a plus arm. He makes above-average contact at the plate but his present power is fringy, especially for his position, but he has the frame to add some strength. Overall, he projects as a player that could hit over .300 on a consistent basis while providing some defensive versatility.

 

David Peterson, LHP, Oregon – The Red Sox selected Peterson in the 28th round in 2014 but didn’t have the cap space to sign him. The 6’6” left-hander is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the draft, demonstrated by the fact the he stuck out 20 batters in a complete game shutout against Arizona State in late April. His fastball sits in the low 90s but has topped out in the mid-90s. He also throws a plus slider and mixes in an average changeup and an occasional curveball. To take it to the next level, he’ll need to work on maintaining more consistent command, and he’ll eventually be required to mix in his changeup more.

 

Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State – Burger is one of the top power bats in the draft, while also making consistently above-average contact. He’s not the most athletic player and has below average speed on the base paths and range in the field. Overall, he has the potential to be an impact middle-of-the-order bat, but he’ll need to work on hitting off-speed stuff and improving his defense.

 

There’s some chance that all of the above players are off the board by the time the Red Sox pick at #24. Other players who the Red Sox have been linked to in the first round include Houston LHP Seth Romero, Dana Hills High School RHP Hans Crouse, LSU RHP Alex Lange, McGill-Toolen Catholic High School OF Bubba Thompson, and Central Florida JC RHP Nate Pearson.

[Jack Flap]

In two new mock drafts out this morning, Baseball America has the Red Sox taking Peterson at #24, while MLB.com puts them with Hiura.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-4-0/#F65A7Mp10sFm7qY1.97

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/235304580/round-1-forecast-mlb-draft-starts-monday/?topicid=151437456

[OH FOY]

Before injury Hiura was a Top 10 Prospect in most Drafts.

[jacksonianmarch]

1. Tanner Houck RHP Missouri

 

He is a big framed strike thrower with a filthy mid 90s sinker. Slider is inconsistent. Change is weak. Funky mechanics make him an injury risk. As a collegian, he should move fast.

 

2. Cole Brannen OF HS

 

Speed guy with protectable 10-15HR power. Sounds like a Mark Kotsay type with better SB potential.

[mvp 78]

SP is always a need, so I'm fine with the 1st pick. The OF depth in the system is weak, so the 2nd pick looks like the right direction too. I wouldn't be surprised if they go with another OF in the next few rounds.

 

Most people assume the Sox are going to grab Daniel Flores © on July 2nd. Maybe they'll get one of the OFers from Venezuela too.

[Jack Flap]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/red-sox-select-pitcher-tanner-houck.html

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/red-sox-select-cole-brannen-with-their.html

 

Not a bad first day, IMO. Seems like there's a fair amount of concern that Houck could end up in the bullpen, but his upside could be that of a #3/4 starter. Have seen Brannen compared to a Brett Gardner sort a couple of times.

[Station 13]

How many funky delivery guy works as a SP in the majors?

[jacksonianmarch]

His stuff points towards starter. Usually your heavy sinkerballers are starters. Remember, Chien Ming Wang had a good career before he blew out his elbow throwing only bowling ball sinkers

[moonslav59]

Nothing too surprising.

 

Nothing I'm going to get too excited about.

 

About what I expected.

 

I hope we find some gems this year.

[moonslav59]

SP is always a need, so I'm fine with the 1st pick. The OF depth in the system is weak, so the 2nd pick looks like the right direction too. I wouldn't be surprised if they go with another OF in the next few rounds.

 

Most people assume the Sox are going to grab Daniel Flores © on July 2nd. Maybe they'll get one of the OFers from Venezuela too.

 

Maybe getting Flores might make us slightly more comfortable trading one of our 3 ML or ML ready catchers.

[moonslav59]

Some good reads at soxprospects.com...

 

Tanner Houck:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/red-sox-select-pitcher-tanner-houck.html

 

Cole Brannen:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/red-sox-select-cole-brannen-with-their.html

 

 

Pod Cast on Draft Night:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/podcast-ep-122-draft-night-1-reaction.html

 

 

Best available 2nd day Players:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/best-available-players-day-two.html

[mvp 78]

Maybe getting Flores might make us slightly more comfortable trading one of our 3 ML or ML ready catchers.

 

Swihart is hurt and his trade value is pretty low. Vazquez and Leon are both replacement level players that I don't think many teams would be all that interested in.

[moonslav59]

Swihart is hurt and his trade value is pretty low. Vazquez and Leon are both replacement level players that I don't think many teams would be all that interested in.

 

Have you seen the state of catching these days in MLB?

 

Vaz & Leon are not "replacement level". They are much closer to average than replacement.

 

Plus, there are 6 teams with a team catching WAR of 0.1 or less, including the Nats, Jays and Mariners.

 

The Sox catching OPS is .690. That's not replacement level. It ranks 17th in MLB. It's just .014 away from top tier! Not bad for a catching tandem known for their defense.

 

5 teams have a catching OPS of under .619.

 

That's replacement level, and those teams would probably love to have Swihart or Vaz added to their catcher mix.

 

The Nats (.644) might even want Leon back.

[Jack Flap]

I'd hate to sell low on Swihart...rather park him in Pawtucket and let him work his way back.

 

Flores will be far enough away that I doubt signing him will affect our willingness to trade any of our MLB/AAA catchers, though.

[jacksonianmarch]

Flores is light years away. Figure that Gary Sanchez was signed as a 16 yr old in 2009 and he didn't debut for 7 years. Catchers take awhile to develop AND 16 yr olds take time to develop. Right now he is added talent, but counting on his aside from considering him a nice lottery ticket is foolish

[jacksonianmarch]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/red-sox-select-pitcher-tanner-houck.html

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/red-sox-select-cole-brannen-with-their.html

 

Not a bad first day, IMO. Seems like there's a fair amount of concern that Houck could end up in the bullpen, but his upside could be that of a #3/4 starter. Have seen Brannen compared to a Brett Gardner sort a couple of times.

 

Given where you are picking and how thin your system has become, yeah that's not a bad first day. The first pick was all about getting a guy who could move through fast. The second pick was all about projection and athleticism

[mvp 78]

Have you seen the state of catching these days in MLB?

 

Vaz & Leon are not "replacement level". They are much closer to average than replacement.

 

Plus, there are 6 teams with a team catching WAR of 0.1 or less, including the Nats, Jays and Mariners.

 

The Sox catching OPS is .690. That's not replacement level. It ranks 17th in MLB. It's just .014 away from top tier! Not bad for a catching tandem known for their defense.

 

5 teams have a catching OPS of under .619.

 

That's replacement level, and those teams would probably love to have Swihart or Vaz added to their catcher mix.

 

The Nats (.644) might even want Leon back.

 

They are "known for their defense" but it doesn't look that way when I watch the games. Per Baseball Ref WAR, they are replacement level.

[jacksonianmarch]

3. Brett Netzer 2B UNC Charlotte

 

He's a hit first 2b without a lot of power. Average runner, projectable average defender who has been abysmal defensively this year. Should hit for average, but that's really his only plus tool per MLB

[mvp 78]

With their third-round pick (101st overall) the Red Sox select Brett Netzer, a second baseman out of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. The junior was ranked as the 237th best prospect in the draft by Baseball America, while MLBPipeline.com had him ranked at 197.

 

Netzer is known for his offense, with a quick bat from the left side of the plate that has consistently hit for average during his three years in college. After batting .318 as a freshman, Netzer hit .384 in 2016, though he regressed slightly this season, finishing the year at .342. Over the last two seasons he has combined to walk 54 times while striking out in only 47 of his 445 at-bats. Both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com view him as an average defender with a subpar arm and average speed, so most of his value will be tied to his hit tool.

 

Standing at 6-foot, 190 pounds, Netzer put up decent power numbers in college, hitting 24 and 25 extra-base hits in 2016 and 2017, respectively. He also added eight extra-base hits in 99 at-bats in the Cape Cod League, where he hit .283/.360/.424 in 26 games with Hyannis.

 

Not surprising that they went middle IF. He's not a very highly regarded prospect though. Maybe hoping to save slot $$ on this pick?

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

In the 4th Round (131st overall), the Red Sox select Oregon State RHP Jake Thompson.

 

Big slider.

[Slasher9]

Given where you are picking and how thin your system has become, yeah that's not a bad first day. The first pick was all about getting a guy who could move through fast. The second pick was all about projection and athleticism

 

i forget. before this draft are we a top 15 farm system or bottom 5 "thin" system?

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Reading up on Thompson, I wonder if Sox will stick him in bullpen and let him climb quickly, or try to work on command, third pitch as SP.

[mvp 78]

@mlananna

 

I see Jake Thompson as a reliever. Throws from stretch exclusively. When I saw him, he pitched off his slider. FB velo jumps in short stints

[mvp 78]

Thought this was interesting on the Netzer pick:

 

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Third-round pick Netzer hit well on the Cape last summer. Sox like to scout that league in their own back yard.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

The Red Sox took RHP Alex Scherff in the 5th round - one of the bigger prep arms in the draft. He'll be an over-slot sign.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/alex-scherff-establishes-elite-2017-arm/#I5M34RYtR0q7L84Q.97

[jacksonianmarch]

Strange to pick an over slot in the 5th round. Kid sounds like a good pick at this stage, but who knows what it'll take to sign him

[mvp 78]

@IanMBrowne

 

Red Sox making a strong run on right-handed pitching early in the draft, taking Seton Hall's Zach Shellenger in sixth round.

[moonslav59]

I'd hate to sell low on Swihart...rather park him in Pawtucket and let him work his way back.

 

Flores will be far enough away that I doubt signing him will affect our willingness to trade any of our MLB/AAA catchers, though.

 

Well, if they trade Vaz or Leon, Swi will be "parked" at Fenway.

[moonslav59]

They are "known for their defense" but it doesn't look that way when I watch the games. Per Baseball Ref WAR, they are replacement level.

 

Fair enough, but fangraphs has Vaz at +0.4 and Leon at +0.1. In light of how WAR is boosted a lot by playing more games, those numbers are both significantly higher than "replacement level".

 

Our catcher team OPS is +0.5, which according to fangraphs ranks 20th. It's not great, but I would think replacement level would be around 0.0 and 26th or lower ranked.

 

Look, I'm not saying either of these guys are going to being us back something great in trade, but I truly believe several teams would significantly benefit by having one of these two on their teams. I can see us using one of our catchers as part of a larger package to get something we need more.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Vazquez has more value as he is younger and he has the better run prevention capability. Guys with rocket arms behind the plate are worth something. If you dealt Leon, you're getting a PTNBL. If you deal Vazquez, you might get a B prospect