carlos beltran signs with astros....

[cp176]

It was said the Sox really wanted Beltran. They even tried to get him at the deadline.

 

This may be a sign we are looking to stay under the limit and reset the tax rate for next year's better FA class.

 

Or, as Kimmi said, it very possibly might mean that DD has another plan.

[moonslav59]

Or, as Kimmi said, it very possibly might mean that DD has another plan.

 

Very true, but if we are going to go bold, this was a pretty cheap option we passed by.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I didn't want Beltran--I'm happy to see him sign elsewhere. He will play most of next season at age 40, an age where very few hitters produce at a high level.

[moonslav59]

I didn't want Beltran--I'm happy to see him sign elsewhere. He will play most of next season at age 40, an age where very few hitters produce at a high level.

 

One could say the same about 38 ans 39 year olds.

[a700hitter]

One could say the same about 38 ans 39 year olds.

Beltran has been breaking down physically. Aches, pains and injuries led to him having subpar season in 3 of the last four years.

[a700hitter]

I thought that the Astros were in the lead for EE.

[moonslav59]

Beltran has been breaking down physically. Aches, pains and injuries led to him having subpar season in 3 of the last four years.

 

His "subpar" is better than what we have.

 

.842 2012 619 PAs

.830 2013 600 PAs

.703 2014 449 PAs

.808 2015 531 PAs

.850 2016 593 PAs

 

I see more PAs this year than any year since 2013.

 

I see his highest OPS in the last 5 seasons.

 

If that's breaking down, sign me up!

 

[raider_35_24]

His "subpar" is better than what we have.

 

.842 2012 619 PAs

.830 2013 600 PAs

.703 2014 449 PAs

.808 2015 531 PAs

.850 2016 593 PAs

 

I see more PAs this year than any year since 2013.

 

I see his highest OPS in the last 5 seasons.

 

If that's breaking down, sign me up!

 

 

LOL...yup! sign me up also....

[a700hitter]

His "subpar" is better than what we have.

 

.842 2012 619 PAs

.830 2013 600 PAs

.703 2014 449 PAs

.808 2015 531 PAs

.850 2016 593 PAs

 

I see more PAs this year than any year since 2013.

 

I see his highest OPS in the last 5 seasons.

 

If that's breaking down, sign me up!

 

2016 was a very good season, but a last blast for the aging Beltran.

 

2015 .808 OPS ranks 44th --plenty of players who are less expensive ranked ahead of him

2014 .703 OPS ranks 104th

2013 .830 OPS ranks 32nd behind Daniel Nava

 

So, yes those years 2013-2015 were subpar years for Beltran who has arguably had an HOF career. He is breaking down.

[moonslav59]

2016 was a very good season, but a last blast for the aging Beltran.

 

2015 .808 OPS ranks 44th --plenty of players who are less expensive ranked ahead of him

2014 .703 OPS ranks 104th

2013 .830 OPS ranks 32nd behind Daniel Nava

 

So, yes those years 2013-2015 were subpar years for Beltran who has arguably had an HOF career. He is breaking down.

 

.830 is a very good year also, and his PAs have shown no sign of "breaking down".

 

His career OPS is .845. He's been within .037 of his career number in 3 of his last 4 years.

 

I'm not saying he's not due for a sharp decline soon, but I don't agree that he's been sub par in 3 of his last 4 seasons. It's more like he's been right around his "par" in 4 of his last 5 seasons.

 

Nobody is expecting his prime year numbers next year. The expectation would be somewhere over .800 and 550+ PAs as mainly a DH.

Edited December 4, 2016 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

.830 is a very good year also, and his PAs have shown no sign of "breaking down".

 

His career OPS is .845. He's been within .037 of his career number in 3 of his last 4 years.

 

I'm not saying he's not due for a sharp decline soon, but I don't agree that he's been sub par in 3 of his last 4 seasons. It's more like he's been right around his "par" in 4 of his last 5 seasons.

 

Nobody is expecting his prime year numbers next year. The expectation would be somewhere over .800 and 550+ PAs as mainly a DH.

If par is his career averages, he has been below par and dragging down his career averages. OBP has been declining too. His power numbers have been unimpressive in light of the fact that he was playing in the bandbox at Yankee Stadium. Those numbers would be worse in Fenway. I like Beltran, and a one year deal doesn't have too much downside, but his career is on the downside.

[notin]

If Carlos Beltran is breaking down, Matt Holliday is legally dead...

[notin]

If par is his career averages, he has been below par and dragging down his career averages. OBP has been declining too. His power numbers have been unimpressive in light of the fact that he was playing in the bandbox at Yankee Stadium. Those numbers would be worse in Fenway. I like Beltran, and a one year deal doesn't have too much downside, but his career is on the downside.

 

But even a declining Beltran is better than a lot of other options. I'd take a declining Beltran over a peaking Mitch Moreland or Adam Lind. Especially if the commitment involved was only one year...

[notin]

I like Beltran, and a one year deal doesn't have too much downside, but his career is on the downside.

 

On a one year deal, there is no real need to worry about his career trajectory. He had a terrific season last year and is unlikely to duplicate it. But how much does he have to drop off before people start thinking "we should have signed Logan Morrison!!"?

 

For one year, he would have been acceptable. For multiple years, his inevitable decline becomes a bigger factor. ..

[Kimmi]

Smart deal for Beltran, like him too. As a GM I'm not doing it. I'll pay you 16 million for next year, but if were in last place or struggling, I cannot move you to improve for future, forget it.

You sign a FA you should always be able to move him. Got to think future.

Because he does good doesn't mean Team will do good. Best time to Trade, Player doing well, and other Teams looking for help.

It should be an investment, both for present and future.

 

If Beltran is playing well next season, he would be very tradeable. Why wouldn't he be?

[Kimmi]

Or, as Kimmi said, it very possibly might mean that DD has another plan.

 

I was reminded by something I read this morning that Dombrowski is pretty much a straight shooter. He has maintained that there would not be any big moves this offseason. I'm really thinking that that will be the case. A bullpen arm and maybe a couple of other minor moves, and that's it.

[Kimmi]

I thought that the Astros were in the lead for EE.

 

The Astros are apparently not out of the mix for Encarnacion, despite signing Beltran.

[Kimmi]

But even a declining Beltran is better than a lot of other options. I'd take a declining Beltran over a peaking Mitch Moreland or Adam Lind. Especially if the commitment involved was only one year...

 

The one year commitment is a huge factor. Even if he tanks, most teams can eat a one year deal without too much hardship. It's the same reason why picking up Buchholz' options last year and this year made so much sense.

 

As you said, a declining Beltran is a lot better than many other options. And as Bellhorn said, the contract is extremely reasonable.

[moonslav59]

If par is his career averages, he has been below par and dragging down his career averages. OBP has been declining too. His power numbers have been unimpressive in light of the fact that he was playing in the bandbox at Yankee Stadium. Those numbers would be worse in Fenway. I like Beltran, and a one year deal doesn't have too much downside, but his career is on the downside.

 

It might help to glance at the numbers before you make statements like this. Nobody is denying he's declined as he aged. Nobody is like Papi.

 

Beltran:

 

.836 Yankee Stadium (actually lower than his career OPS)

 

.932 Fenway Park

 

[a700hitter]

It might help to glance at the numbers before you make statements like this. Nobody is denying he's declined as he aged. Nobody is like Papi.

 

Beltran:

 

.836 Yankee Stadium (actually lower than his career OPS)

 

.932 Fenway Park

 

Ididn't look at the numbers, because they don't matter. He has never played full time at Fenway, and the dimensions in RF are much more difficult than the band box at Yankee Stadium. They will negatively impact his HR numbers, and he doesn't have the wheels anymore to stretch hits in the gap.

 

As I said, I don't think we could have gone very wrong if we signed him for a year, but it wasn't a big miss either.

[a700hitter]

But even a declining Beltran is better than a lot of other options. I'd take a declining Beltran over a peaking Mitch Moreland or Adam Lind. Especially if the commitment involved was only one year...

Did you read the last sentence of the post to which you responded? That is what I said about the one year contract.

[moonslav59]

Ididn't look at the numbers, because they don't matter. He has never played full time at Fenway, and the dimensions in RF are much more difficult than the band box at Yankee Stadium. They will negatively impact his HR numbers, and he doesn't have the wheels anymore to stretch hits in the gap.

 

As I said, I don't think we could have gone very wrong if we signed him for a year, but it wasn't a big miss either.

 

He's a switch hitter.

 

Yeah, it makes sense playing in NY would help his HR numbers more than Fenway, as there are more righties in the league than lefties, but the facts say otherwise. He has more HRs per PA at Fenway.

 

I'm not saying past numbers project future ones, but I think Fenway would be a nice park for any hitter like Beltran to make his home park.

 

[a700hitter]

He's a switch hitter.

 

Yeah, it makes sense playing in NY would help his HR numbers more than Fenway, as there are more righties in the league than lefties, but the facts say otherwise. He has more HRs per PA at Fenway.

 

I'm not saying past numbers project future ones, but I think Fenway would be a nice park for any hitter like Beltran to make his home park.

 

Not getting him was not a big miss.

[moonslav59]

Not getting him was not a big miss.

 

If we want to reset the luxury tax, I agree.

 

We are going to need to settle on a platoon guy like Moss, Alvarez or Lind.

[a700hitter]

but the facts say otherwise. He has more HRs per PA at Fenway.

 

I'm not saying past numbers project future ones, but I think Fenway would be a nice park for any hitter like Beltran to make his home park.

 

This may more about Red Sox pitching than Fenway. His HRs at Fenway and at home against almost the same in virtually the same number of games.

[moonslav59]

This may more about Red Sox pitching than Fenway. His HRs at Fenway and at home against almost the same in virtually the same number of games.

 

But, not ever having to face Yankee pitching at Yankee Stadium has to be factored in too.

[a700hitter]

But, not ever having to face Yankee pitching at Yankee Stadium has to be factored in too.

No numbers? The Red Sox have probably been more pitcher challenged over the years than the Yankees... no?

[moonslav59]

No numbers? The Red Sox have probably been more pitcher challenged over the years than the Yankees... no?

 

Pretty close, probably. IW as just countering your point..

 

2014-2016 (the years CB's been with the Yanks)

 

ERA-

BOS 98

NYY 99

[a700hitter]

Pretty close, probably. IW as just countering your point..

 

2014-2016 (the years CB's been with the Yanks)

 

ERA-

BOS 98

NYY 99

You used career numbers to make your point and are backing them up with last 3 year statistics. That doesn't hold water.

[moonslav59]

You used career numbers to make your point and are backing them up with last 3 year statistics. That doesn't hold water.

 

Well, the vast majority of CB;s numbers in NY came in the last two years, and besides, the Sox pitching was better prior to the purge of 2012.