A point to ponder about Steven Wright

[Dojji]

We've all been kind of collectively holding our breaths waiting for Steven Wright to regress into a pumpkin. His first few outings suggested that a significant regression was in order, after his first few starts his xFIP was somewhere in the high 4's or low 5's and his BABIP was incredibly low.

 

Now I don't know how common it is for a pitcher to simply continue to pitch well until the underlying stats catch up with the good numbers, but that seems to be happening with Wright. According to Fangraphs, Wright's BABIP, while still low, is at about the same point it was last year, suggesting that he simply allows a lot of weak contact. Wright has also maintained a very high strikeout rate for a knuckleballer, at still north of 8 k/9, meaning he's still keeping good lineups off balance with his mix of stuff. His strikeout rate last year was actually pretty high for a knuckleballer as well, at 6.5 k/9. This combined with the weak contact generating a low BABIP is what has allowed him to be this effective, and yet in each case the numbers are either maintaining, or actually improving.

 

As for FIP and XFIP, both are now in a range where good pitchers tend to live. Wright's FIP stands at 3.23, and his xFIP at a 4.17. Both very solid numbers that throw into question the idea that a major correction in performance is on its way.

 

I think that as bats heat up towards midsummer Wright may have some games where he lets in a few more runs than he has so far. But just looking for the numbers, and bearing in mind they probably will dip at least a bit as hitters adjust to Wright (though in the only game against a team that's seen Wright a second time, he still shut the Blue Jays down pretty comfortably), the whole concept of Wright experiencing a major regression or turning into a pumpkin is looking a little farfetched.

 

One area of concern with Wright is his walks, he could use to get those down. I think some of those extra runs he'll allow in July and August are going to come from walks followed by him trying to sneak his BP fastball in for a strike to get ahead of the next hitter and letting up a long one. Still, it looks like we may have a good pitcher on our hands for the longish term out of nowhere, and for a franchise that has developed rather few really strong starting pitchers in awhile, that's exciting.

Edited May 6, 2016 by Dojji

[Slasher9]

i would think BABIP v a knuckler who is "on" would be pretty low. hard to square up the butterfly.

[Emp9]

I don't see any major regression with Wright. Will he ever toss a bad game ever again? Sure, I'm positive he'll throw a stinker ever now and again just like every SP in the league. My expectation of Wright is compensated by how I view the 5th slot in any rotation and how he sets up the next SP after him when playing in the same series. Another good thing is that in Knuckleball years Wright is like 24 yrs old!

[sk7326]

Ultimately I throw up my hands with knuckleballers. Enjoy it while it lasts and don't ask too many questions. Wright will give a durable 180+ innings this season ... and there is a decent chance I'll be hiding my eyes if we line him up in a postseason series. But he could be (like Wakefield) invaluable for getting through the marathon.

[Dojji]

One weird thing that happened about the third time through the rotation is that they actually switched the order in which the pitchers started to move Wright up in the rotation. Right now, I believe the rotation goes Price, Porcello, Wright, Buchholz, 5th guy. Steve Wright isn't our 5th starter anymore. He's our third starter. He may even maintain that eminence when Eddie comes back, depends on how sharp he looks.

 

Tell ya what, if Buchholz gets his game on and Eddie comes back looking strong enough to put Wright back into the 5 spot this is going to be one HELL of a rotation.

[Slasher9]

Ultimately I throw up my hands with knuckleballers. Enjoy it while it lasts and don't ask too many questions. Wright will give a durable 180+ innings this season ... and there is a decent chance I'll be hiding my eyes if we line him up in a postseason series. But he could be (like Wakefield) invaluable for getting through the marathon.

 

so true.

[Jack Flap]

I expect "regression" in the sense that his 1.67 ERA will go up significantly sooner or later, but I do believe he can be a solid starter for us for a long time.

 

I think it's safe to say we've already won the Lars Anderson trade.

[Kingface]

I expect "regression" in the sense that his 1.67 ERA will go up significantly sooner or later, but I do believe he can be a solid starter for us for a long time.

 

I think it's safe to say we've already won the Lars Anderson trade.

 

That's right!!!! Forgot about that trade!!!!!!!

 

I tell ya.....I really thought Lars would become something. I watched him a TON at Portland and the kid really seemed to 'have it'......it's a shame, he was a really good kid.....just probably couldn't handle the pressure.

[sk7326]

One weird thing that happened about the third time through the rotation is that they actually switched the order in which the pitchers started to move Wright up in the rotation. Right now, I believe the rotation goes Price, Porcello, Wright, Buchholz, 5th guy. Steve Wright isn't our 5th starter anymore. He's our third starter. He may even maintain that eminence when Eddie comes back, depends on how sharp he looks.

 

Tell ya what, if Buchholz gets his game on and Eddie comes back looking strong enough to put Wright back into the 5 spot this is going to be one HELL of a rotation.

 

I am not sure to read too much into that. One of the virtues of the knuckleballer is the ability to keep the rest of the rotation on schedule. You want to give a guy an extra day, you can move Wright up to make that happen. I think of Wakefield going on two days rest multiple times to get the bullpen back on schedule. Putting Wright between Buchholz and Owens gave some cushion in case the pitching staff needed it (like it did last night).

[mvp 78]

Ultimately I throw up my hands with knuckleballers. Enjoy it while it lasts and don't ask too many questions. Wright will give a durable 180+ innings this season ... and there is a decent chance I'll be hiding my eyes if we line him up in a postseason series. But he could be (like Wakefield) invaluable for getting through the marathon.

 

This is how I feel as well. Just look at Wake's career that was basically a roller coaster from day 1.

[Emp9]

Yeah, we've really had (except once?) Price set up Wright instead of the other way around thus far, right? Ideally, I'd personally like à La Wake5th/Pedro1st as I seem to remember that working out well enough for us. Could be purely semantics on my part. Might not be a big deal at all.

[S5Dewey]

This is how I feel as well. Just look at Wake's career that was basically a roller coaster from day 1.

 

This is what you accept when you have a knuckleballer.

 

He's going to walk a lot of people.

 

He's going to give up some long home runs

 

He's going to make some batters look foolish

 

He'll strike out a fair amount of hitters

 

You will never know what you're going to get from one outing to the next.

 

These things come with the territory. I'm now thinking that on the whole Wright may become a better knuckleball pitcher than Wake was. Wright changes speeds better, his FB is better (arguably the same thing) and his straight curve is better than Wake's. As with anything else in life, when a person has good skills and has a mentor who also had good skills in his prime the outcome is an improvement in their skills.

[Dojji]

Another great start by Wright. How is he this unhittable?

[redsoxdirtdog]

Damnit! You're just making the posting Gestapo angry! Oh sure! They won't come after you. You're not the one hiding in an attic.

 

; (

Edited May 9, 2016 by redsoxdirtdog

[redsoxdirtdog]

#1 starter... shhhhhhh.

 

This post by Dojji. Aka Al Haig

[sk7326]

Another great start by Wright. How is he this unhittable?

 

Because he is a knuckleballer - and sometimes this happens. Tim Wakefield was 14-1 with a microscopic ERA in 1995 coming from the minors. Embrace it - his ability to help the pen is huh yooge

[greenwell]

What really happened is they delayed Wright's start. Now the rotation is Price, Wright, Buchholz, Other Guy, Porcello. The order is the same as it started the season (with Other Guy instead of Kelley), except for Wright's slot, but Wright has one less start. After Porcello's next game, Price, Buchh and Porcello will all have 7 starts, but Wright will only have 6.

[Emp9]

"Other Guy"... Lol

[Emp9]

"Also Ran" lol

[Slasher9]

"Fill in the Blank"

[Dojji]

Ed Cetera

[cp176]

Did I hear what I thought I heard last night before I fell asleep - Wright's fastball was clocked at 87mph? If that is the case, it makes his knuckle ball so much more effective. Probably I was dreaming.

[Dojji]

No he did throw one at 87 last night, confirmed on the radar. Even if the gun is a little hot, being able to get a fastball into the 80's while throwing the knuckler means he can occasionally "pitch frontwards" (IE lead with the fastball) if he feels a hitter is lining up his knuckleball a bit too well and that might make him even harder to hit.

[cp176]

No he did throw one at 87 last night, confirmed on the radar. Even if the gun is a little hot, being able to get a fastball into the 80's while throwing the knuckler means he can occasionally "pitch frontwards" (IE lead with the fastball) if he feels a hitter is lining up his knuckleball a bit too well and that might make him even harder to hit.

 

If you are looking knuckle ball and you see 87mph fastball, you will have to be very lucky to hit it. I don't remember the separation between Wake's knuckle ball/fastball being even close to that. I would think that that would give him an even greater chance at being decent long term.

[Slasher9]

one of those 80something MPH FB's ended up in the cheap seats off gardners bat.....

[sk7326]

one of those 80something MPH FB's ended up in the cheap seats off gardners bat.....

 

Yeah. I think with a 5 run lead and 1 out to go, he just did not want to walk anybody ... put it down the middle, see if the guy can hit it. Oh well

[Slasher9]

Yeah. I think with a 5 run lead and 1 out to go, he just did not want to walk anybody ... put it down the middle, see if the guy can hit it. Oh well

 

agreed. he's hoping for an at 'em ball there. no harm, no foul up by 5 with 1 out to go. was hoping (as we all were) that he would get the CG SHO.

[cp176]

one of those 80something MPH FB's ended up in the cheap seats off gardners bat.....

 

I'm just going to guess that if they guess right on his knuckleball they'll end up a pant load farther out than the cheap seats.

[Slasher9]

I'm just going to guess that if they guess right on his knuckleball they'll end up a pant load farther out than the cheap seats.

 

well they have to be guessing knuckler with every pitch that Wright throws. but i get your point that if they square up the knuckleball it goes a loooooooong way.

[cp176]

well they have to be guessing knuckler with every pitch that Wright throws. but i get your point that if they square up the knuckleball it goes a loooooooong way.

 

That was the point though. You are right - they have to be thinking knuckleball. I like the fact that with Wright his fastball actually comes close to looking like a fastball. I know Wake's fastball (if we call it that) did come even close to approaching 85 mph. Wright might be in this for the long haul. course - if he has a great year, they might trade him. Worked out pretty well for the mets.