To extend or not to extend...

[jacksonianmarch]

A blurb on Rotoworld about the sox was pretty interesting about Xander and Mookie. Apparently, the sox are not in a rush to extend either of those guys. Xander is entering his final yr of pre-arb. Mookie has 2 yrs of pre-arb left. I think there is little doubt that they are among the top players at their positions offensively and as they mature, should cost the sox a pretty penny. That being said, locking guys up in pre-arb who go on to be stars has proven to be pretty shrewd for clubs on the back end of those deals, when the players would otherwise be seeing HUGE money on the open market. SO the question remains, should or shouldn't the sox lock up there guys before they start making real money in arb?

[Palodios]

The Red Sox have a habit of extending players after the season has already started to avoid the luxury cap. If they're willing to take team friendly deals, I bet something will get done.

[Kimmi]

Extending both players would absolutely be in the Sox' best interest, and I think they will work at getting it done at some point.

 

That said, I don't think the extension needs to necessarily be done this year or even next. Both players are still under team control for several more years. It depends on how many years of free agency both the team and the players are willing to lock up.

 

Another consideration is that Xander has Boras as his agent. We all know his reputation for wanting his players to hit free agency.

[jacksonianmarch]

Xander is also one yr closer to a life altering payday, even if it isn't a long term deal. After 2016, he'll be arb eligible. If he has a good 2016, he's looking at $4-$5 mil for 2017, which would basically set him up for awhile, even if he dies on the field.

 

The thing is, the BIG savings comes when pre-arb players are locked up long term. That being said, there is huge risk for a team, especially since arbitration allows for 3 recurring seasons of 1 yr deals. There are plenty of solid extensions signed by teams right at the arb deadline and before. For Betts, the pre-arb signing he should be looking to exceed would be McCutchen's. After year 2 and prior to his final pre-arb season, he signed a 6yr $51 mil deal buying out 2 seasons of FA and an option for a 3rd. In retrospect, this was probably a bad move for the OFer as he'd have hit the market this yr, but it gave him big financial security while allowing him to hit the market again at 32 after the club option is picked up. And in the end, he makes $65 mil over those 7 yrs, not pocket change by any means. Plus, he should be at the tail end of his prime and someone will pay him stupidly again for an even bigger deal. As it stands, Betts will be a FA at 28 yrs old. If the sox lock up 2-3 FA yrs with a deal now, he'd hit the market again at 30-31, which wouldn't be a bad thing for either.

 

My guess is Boras has Xander hold out and Mookie inks up after 2016. I could see a 6 yr $75 mil contract coming into play for Mookie with a $20 mil club option for a 7th yr

[Station 13]

It's been a while this club extended a young player. Pedroia or Lester/Buccholz were the last. The MLB PA are really against it, and the pressure is for both Betts and Bogaerts to continue to set record breaking free agent contracts. I don't think anything will get done.

[Kimmi]

Xander is also one yr closer to a life altering payday, even if it isn't a long term deal. After 2016, he'll be arb eligible. If he has a good 2016, he's looking at $4-$5 mil for 2017, which would basically set him up for awhile, even if he dies on the field.

 

The thing is, the BIG savings comes when pre-arb players are locked up long term. That being said, there is huge risk for a team, especially since arbitration allows for 3 recurring seasons of 1 yr deals. There are plenty of solid extensions signed by teams right at the arb deadline and before. For Betts, the pre-arb signing he should be looking to exceed would be McCutchen's. After year 2 and prior to his final pre-arb season, he signed a 6yr $51 mil deal buying out 2 seasons of FA and an option for a 3rd. In retrospect, this was probably a bad move for the OFer as he'd have hit the market this yr, but it gave him big financial security while allowing him to hit the market again at 32 after the club option is picked up. And in the end, he makes $65 mil over those 7 yrs, not pocket change by any means. Plus, he should be at the tail end of his prime and someone will pay him stupidly again for an even bigger deal. As it stands, Betts will be a FA at 28 yrs old. If the sox lock up 2-3 FA yrs with a deal now, he'd hit the market again at 30-31, which wouldn't be a bad thing for either.

 

My guess is Boras has Xander hold out and Mookie inks up after 2016. I could see a 6 yr $75 mil contract coming into play for Mookie with a $20 mil club option for a 7th yr

 

I don't really disagree with what you're saying. However, I think from a team's standpoint, it makes more sense to wait until the player reaches his arb years, then try to extend the player, buying out 3-4 of his free agency years.

[sk7326]

This team has generally avoided arbitration - and have been proactive with locking up their core young guys. The case for Bogaerts' extension is a strong one. Betts the Red Sox might be slow walking it a little bit - just because they are so loaded at those positions that perhaps they can afford for a measure of internal competition to work things out to a degree.

 

It's also a two way street. If the Red Sox offer Betts 7/150 (for instance) - Betts could argue against taking it because of how flush with cash the market is.