Red Sox' relative strengths and weaknesses

[Elktonnick]

Did I ever miss that. They must have extended him at some point but I sure don't know when.

 

oh wait...now I remember. This must be the contract extension that had some people wondering why the Sox did not wait till part way through 2016 although I don't ever think you want to wait that long to extend a manager in this town. But if people were talking about it in that context, it must have been before 2015 started.

 

If a team wants to fire a manager a little thing like a contract is hardly an impediment for them to do so.

[a700hitter]

If a team wants to fire a manager a little thing like a contract is hardly an impediment for them to do so.

 

The Mets are so cheap that they almost never fire a manager while he is under contract.

[Kimmi]

If a team wants to fire a manager a little thing like a contract is hardly an impediment for them to do so.

 

Farrell is the type of manager who toes the company line. He will follow the directives of the FO.

[cp176]

Farrell is the type of manager who toes the company line. He will follow the directives of the FO.

 

I'm betting that sooner as opposed to later Farrell winds up somewhere in the front office and not on the field.

[Elktonnick]

I'm betting that sooner as opposed to later Farrell winds up somewhere in the front office and not on the field.

 

Farrell is another example of a square peg in a round hole. He is better suited for some other role than field manager.

[a700hitter]

Farrell is another example of a square peg in a round hole. He is better suited for some other role than field manager.

 

He would be a good town drunk imo.

[Spudboy]

He would be a good town drunk imo.

 

Lol.

 

He's not that bad, is he?

[a700hitter]

Lol.

 

He's not that bad, is he?

 

He'd be a loveable town drunk like the guy on the Andy Griffith Show.

Edited January 3, 2016 by a700hitter

[cp176]

He's be a loveable town drunk like the guy on the Andy Griffith Show.

 

i'm not sure that is saying a lot for poor old Otis. What the hell though really - You could be a lot worse off than a rich, loveable town drunk.

[Kimmi]

Lol.

 

He's not that bad, is he?

 

The verdict is still out on him, IMO. He did lead the team to a World Series, though I do question all of the underperformances from the last two seasons. Is that something that better coaching/managing could have prevented? Did the team play better under Lovullo because of better management or because of other factors?

 

I am going to withhold my opinion of whether he's a good manager until after this season.

[Elktonnick]

The verdict is still out on him, IMO. He did lead the team to a World Series, though I do question all of the underperformances from the last two seasons. Is that something that better coaching/managing could have prevented? Did the team play better under Lovullo because of better management or because of other factors?

 

I am going to withhold my opinion of whether he's a good manager until after this season.

 

If the Red Sox don't show early improvemnt he won't make it that far.

[cp176]

If the latest Bill james' projections for our starting pitchers hold true, we are going to be in good shape. His predictions for buccholz and owens (of all people ) look very good. If Porcello pitches as he suspects, he really becomes your number 4 for sure and actually could be a 5 behind - Price, Bucch, Rodriguez, and Owens.

[Elktonnick]

If the latest Bill james' projections for our starting pitchers hold true, we are going to be in good shape. His predictions for buccholz and owens (of all people ) look very good. If Porcello pitches as he suspects, he really becomes your number 4 for sure and actually could be a 5 behind - Price, Bucch, Rodriguez, and Owens.

 

Some one should publish a statistical study on the accuracy of Bill James statistical projections. I am sure they are done but I presume they are highly "classified"

[cp176]

Some one should publish a statistical study on the accuracy of Bill James statistical projections. I am sure they are done but I presume they are highly "classified"

 

I bet they are. He has an interesting projection for Swihart for this year. If he is more right than the people who have coached and been on the field with Swihart, he would be more valuable to us as a trade candidate than anything else. Which Swihart will we see this this year? For him to help us much, he will either have to catch better than projected or certainly hit better than projected.

[Bellhorn04]

Some one should publish a statistical study on the accuracy of Bill James statistical projections. I am sure they are done but I presume they are highly "classified"

 

This is my big issue with projections. Where are the track records of the projectors? Good luck finding 'em...

[a700hitter]

It is funny that the devoted sabremetricians view themselves as "new school" yet their godfather is Bill James (age 66).

[Bellhorn04]

It is funny that the devoted sabremetricians view themselves as "new school" yet their godfather is Bill James (age 66).

 

Good point.

[a700hitter]

Good point.

Baseball fans around my age have been following Bill James since the 1960's.

[Elktonnick]

Baseball fans around my age have been following Bill James since the 1960's.

 

I read his book years ago.

[cp176]

It is funny that the devoted sabremetricians view themselves as "new school" yet their godfather is Bill James (age 66).

 

Hey - He still looks good for his age though. I'm not opposed to learning new things either. i just think that the whole idea of labelling and categorizing people as being in one camp or the other is ridiculous. If you are going to succeed then I think you have to expect change. Means you have to let go of some things but not all things. I enjoy posting here because of the different points of view. I have learned a great deal about the new baseball language as well. I don't have anyone on ignore here yet either. Not even Charlie McCarthey (can you guess who I mean) even though he never adds anything meaningful really to any of the postings. He just spews away. I do have one question for you or anyone. Did Bill James ever actually play at all? I'm not saying that that is of particular importance with respect to what he does. I would say that playing the game as well understanding the metrics rounds the picture out better than simply doing one or the other.

[a700hitter]

Hey - He still looks good for his age though. I'm not opposed to learning new things either. i just think that the whole idea of labelling and categorizing people as being in one camp or the other is ridiculous. If you are going to succeed then I think you have to expect change. Means you have to let go of some things but not all things. I enjoy posting here because of the different points of view. I have learned a great deal about the new baseball language as well. I don't have anyone on ignore here yet either. Not even Charlie McCarthey (can you guess who I mean) even though he never adds anything meaningful really to any of the postings. He just spews away. I do have one question for you or anyone. Did Bill James ever actually play at all? I'm not saying that that is of particular importance with respect to what he does. I would say that playing the game as well understanding the metrics rounds the picture out better than simply doing one or the other.

I don't think he ever played at any professional level, but I am not sure about amateur levels.

[cp176]

I don't think he ever played at any professional level, but I am not sure about amateur levels.

 

I tried to find information about college of high school and couldn't. Probably not that important. I'm just glad that I played.

 

Also, it is probably old news but I just read Mastrodonato's column about possible things that might help this team. I have to admit that I would feel much better about things if Davis was at first and Gordon was in the outfield. Obviously that would probably mean that Ramirez, Castillo and at least one other probably an arm would be gone. I don't have much confidence in Hanley and Castillo needs to hit better than he ever has. JBJ can make up for a lot with his arm and glove but one of those two guys needs to hit.

[Elktonnick]

I object to the term advanced metrics. In no way are.they "advanced". They are still statistics.The are just a different way at looking what happens during a baseball game.

 

We talk about objectivity vs subjectivity but when it comes right down to it, what is called a strike, what is called a hit, and what is called an error is based on a subjective interpretative. While the strike zone may be defined in the rule book it take an umpire to make the decision on what is actually a strike. The umpire makes a subjective determination of whether the pitched ball constitutes a strike as set forth in the rules. We know that there is wide variety between umpires in their determination of balls and strikes. So too when the umpire makes the determination of a close play at first or elsewhere. While instant replay may have some impact there is still subjectivity at play in many cases. So too when it comes to what constitutes an error. My larger point is that given the inherent subjectivity which lays at the very core of the game how does this effect mathematically the reliability and validity of the statistics. Just a point to ponder.

[Kimmi]

This is my big issue with projections. Where are the track records of the projectors? Good luck finding 'em...

 

A projection is simply the best estimate of what a player's talent level is, nothing more. That doesn't mean (obviously) that a player is going to play to that exact level of talent. No one or nothing can predict the future with 100% accuracy. No projection system can account for injury or randomness. MLB projection systems are very similar to weather projection systems.

 

There are various articles of how good projection systems are. The developers of these systems acknowledge their limitations. They are also constantly tweaking their systems to make them better.

 

They are not foolproof, but they are actually pretty good, and much better than human projections.

[Kimmi]

It is funny that the devoted sabremetricians view themselves as "new school" yet their godfather is Bill James (age 66).

 

Although most of the new schoolers are younger, IMO, being new school has nothing to do with age.

[Kimmi]

Baseball fans around my age have been following Bill James since the 1960's.

 

That might be the case, but if the stats disagree with your way of thinking, you're going with your way of thinking. That's the old school philosophy.

[Kimmi]

I object to the term advanced metrics. In no way are.they "advanced". They are still statistics.The are just a different way at looking what happens during a baseball game.

 

We talk about objectivity vs subjectivity but when it comes right down to it, what is called a strike, what is called a hit, and what is called an error is based on a subjective interpretative. While the strike zone may be defined in the rule book it take an umpire to make the decision on what is actually a strike. The umpire makes a subjective determination of whether the pitched ball constitutes a strike as set forth in the rules. We know that there is wide variety between umpires in their determination of balls and strikes. So too when the umpire makes the determination of a close play at first or elsewhere. While instant replay may have some impact there is still subjectivity at play in many cases. So too when it comes to what constitutes an error. My larger point is that given the inherent subjectivity which lays at the very core of the game how does this effect mathematically the reliability and validity of the statistics. Just a point to ponder.

 

First off, advanced metrics most certainly are advanced. They are still statistics, but they are far more advanced than your traditional stats.

 

As far as subjectivity goes, I use the argument all the time about how subjective something as seemingly straightforward as strikeouts are. I often hear the argument against UZR that it is too subjective. One of the main focuses of stat geeks is to eliminate the subjectivity and bias as much as possible. It will never be eliminated completely, as long as humans are involved, but I can guarantee you that there is a lot less sujectivity and bias in UZR than their is in fielding percentage or errors.

[Elktonnick]

First off, advanced metrics most certainly are advanced. They are still statistics, but they are far more advanced than your traditional stats.

 

As far as subjectivity goes, I use the argument all the time about how subjective something as seemingly straightforward as strikeouts are. I often hear the argument against UZR that it is too subjective. One of the main focuses of stat geeks is to eliminate the subjectivity and bias as much as possible. It will never be eliminated completely, as long as humans are involved, but I can guarantee you that there is a lot less sujectivity and bias in UZR than their is in fielding percentage or errors.

 

How are they more advanced they are just different and comparatively speaking new. You say toe may toe I say Toe mah toe.

[Kimmi]

Hey - He still looks good for his age though. I'm not opposed to learning new things either. i just think that the whole idea of labelling and categorizing people as being in one camp or the other is ridiculous. If you are going to succeed then I think you have to expect change. Means you have to let go of some things but not all things. I enjoy posting here because of the different points of view. I have learned a great deal about the new baseball language as well. I don't have anyone on ignore here yet either. Not even Charlie McCarthey (can you guess who I mean) even though he never adds anything meaningful really to any of the postings. He just spews away. I do have one question for you or anyone. Did Bill James ever actually play at all? I'm not saying that that is of particular importance with respect to what he does. I would say that playing the game as well understanding the metrics rounds the picture out better than simply doing one or the other.

 

As I've said many times, I realize that being old school or new school is not an either/or thing. I don't think there's a person on this board who doesn't understand the importance of having that balance.

 

I do believe that most people lean one way or the other though, don't you?

 

Your comment/asking about Bill James playing baseball tells me which way you lean. Again, when I say someone is old school, that is not meant to be an insult. As I've said before, my father is very old school. I would never insult my father.

[Kimmi]

How are they more advanced they are just different and comparatively speaking new. You say toe may toe I say Toe mah toe.

 

They offer a lot more insight into a player's actual performance and contribution to the team.

 

They are also less flawed.